Patterns of Urban Shrinkage: A Systematic Analysis of Romanian Cities (1992–2020)
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Urban Shrinkage in Post-Socialist EU Countries: An Overview
2.1. Highest Currently Recorded Prevalence and Severity among World Regions
2.2. A Particular Mix of Determinants within a Particular Context
2.3. A Silent Process Eclipsed by Economic Growth
2.4. Context and Particularities of Romanian Urban Shrinkage
3. Exploring Urban Shrinkage: Data and Methods
3.1. Operational Definitions of Urban Shrinkage
3.2. Technical Challenges
3.2.1. Reliability of Demographical Data
3.2.2. The Changing Number of Cities
3.2.3. The Changing Nature of Urban Morphology and City Administrative Borders
3.3. Methodological Approach
4. Results
4.1. Prevalence
4.2. Persistence of Urban Shrinkage
4.3. Severity
4.4. Temporal Patterns and Trajectories of Urban Shrinkage
4.5. Spatial Patterns of Urban Shrinkage
4.6. Demographical Shrinkage vs. Economic Decline
4.7. Demographical Shrinkage vs. Cities’ Own-Source Revenues
5. Discussion
6. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
Population of All 320 Cities 1 | |||
---|---|---|---|
1992 | 2002 | 2011 | |
Population by permanent residence (register data) | 12,992,864 | 12,967,664 | 12,726,168 |
Population by usual residence (census data) | 12,901,293 | 11,904,031 | 10,879,723 |
Absolute difference between population at census and population by permanent residence (register data) | −91,571 | −1,063,633 | −1,846,445 |
Relative difference between population at census and population by permanent residence (%) | −0.71 | −8.94 | −16.97 |
Number of cities1 with population by permanent residence (register data) > population by usual residence (census data) | 192 | 284 | 300 |
Number of cities1 with population by usual residence (census data) > population by permanent residence (register data) | 128 | 36 | 20 |
Appendix B
City | Absolute Difference (No. of Inhabitants) | Relative Difference (% of City Size) 1 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1992 | 2002 | 2011 | 1992 | 2002 | 2011 | |
Buhuși | −720 | −3679 | −7049 | −3.33 | −19.63 | −48.41 |
Roman | 1160 | −11,727 | −22,855 | 1.44 | −16.93 | −45.07 |
Agnita | −697 | −2007 | −3755 | −5.66 | −18.42 | −43.09 |
Negrești-Oaș | −644 | −3076 | −5071 | −3.87 | −22.18 | −42.73 |
Măcin | −545 | −1370 | −3341 | −4.50 | −12.89 | −40.52 |
Onești | 738 | −8270 | −15,708 | 1.25 | −16.08 | −40.10 |
Piatra Neamț | −624 | −20,324 | −33,614 | −0.51 | −19.37 | −39.52 |
Balan | −199 | −1664 | −2393 | −1.82 | −21.06 | −39.13 |
Bicaz | −882 | −1060 | −2535 | −10.28 | −12.58 | −38.74 |
Bacău | 5182 | −29,758 | −51,941 | 2.53 | −16.96 | −35.99 |
Appendix C
Appendix D
Appendix E
Population Thresholds (Inhabitants at Zenith) | No of Cities | Share in the Total No of Cities (%) | |
---|---|---|---|
Small cities | ≤19,999 | 203 | 63 |
Medium cities | 20,000–49,999 | 69 | 22 |
Large cities | 50,000–199,999 | 36 | 11 |
Largest cities | ≥200,000 | 12 | 4 |
TOTAL | 320 | 100 |
Appendix F
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Demographical Data | Definition | Data Availability | Data Reliability * | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Temporal | Geographical Level 1 | |||
Population by permanent residence | The total number of people with Romanian citizenship that declare their permanent residence on the territory of Romania (as it appears on each person’s identity card and as it is registered by the administrative bodies of the state). ** | Available on a year-by-year basis 1992–2020 | City level (LAU2) | Lowest |
Population by usual residence | The total number of people, regardless of their nationality, who have their usual residence in Romania. The usual residence may differ from the permanent residence (that appears on the identity card) and it is necessary for a person to have continuously lived for at least 12 months in a particular area for it to be considered their usual residence. The value is generally estimated by the National Institute of Statistics based on the Population Census. *** | Available on year-by-year basis 2003–2020 | County level | Moderate |
Census population (usual resident population) | The total number of people, regardless of their nationality, who have their usual residence in Romania. The usual residence may differ from the permanent residence (that appears on the identity card) and it is necessary for a person to have continuously lived for at least 12 months in a particular area for it to be considered their usual residence. Unlike the population by usual residence, the census data is collected on the field and hence it has the highest reliability. | 1992, 2002, 2011 | City level (LAU2) | Highest |
Definition | Methods/Indexes Employed | Type of Shrinkage Assessed | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Absolute 1 | Relative 2 | |||
Prevalence | Commonness of the process among the entire spectrum of cities | Index of prevalence * | Y | Y |
Persistence | Duration in time | No of years of declining population | Y | Y |
Severity | Absolute (or relative) loss of population | % change in population | Y | Y |
Speed | Population change per unit of time | Compound annual growth rate | Y | Y |
Temporal patterns | Typology of demographic trajectories | Hierarchical Cluster Analysis | Y | N |
Spatial patterns | Spatial and regional concentration of urban shrinkage incidence | Global spatial autocorrelation | Y | - |
Prevalence & severity by regions | Y | Y |
Category of Criteria | Criteria 1 | Criteria 2 | 1992–2011 [Census Data] | 1992–2011 [Register Data] 2 | 1992–2020 [Register Data] 2 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Persistence of shrinkage | ≥2 consecutive years ≥2 consecutive years | Absolute3 Relative4 | - - | 294 (92%) 276 (86%) | 304 (95%) 293 (92%) |
≥5 consecutive years | Absolute | - | 230 (72%) | 267 (83%) | |
≥5 consecutive years | Relative | - | 189 (59%) | 239 (75%) | |
≥10 consecutive years | Absolute | - | 144 (45%) | 204 (64%) | |
≥10 consecutive years | Relative | - | 90 (28%) | 168 (53%) | |
Severity/Speed of shrinkage | CAGR 1 < 0% p.a. | Absolute | 291 (91%) | 217 (68%) | 239 (75%) |
CAGR 1 < 0% p.a. | Relative | 164 (51%) | 165 (52%) | 197 (62%) | |
CAGR 1 < −0.15% p.a. | Absolute | 280 (88%) | 169 (53%) | 200 (63%) | |
CAGR 1 < −0.15% p.a. | Relative | 129 (40%) | 110 (34%) | 161 (50%) | |
CAGR 1 < −0.30% p.a. | Absolute | 266 (83%) | 113 (35%) | 161 (50%) | |
CAGR 1 < −0.30% p.a. | Relative | 95 (30%) | 73 (23%) | 102 (32%) |
Type of Trajectory | Share among Cities |
---|---|
Continuous or almost continuous shrinkage | 34.4% |
Episodic shrinkage | 22.5% |
(Short) growth followed by continuous shrinkage | 20.9% |
Continuous or almost continuous growth | 8.8% |
Other/various trajectories | 13.4% |
Total | 100% |
Severity | Duration | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
I | z-Score | p-Value | I | z-Score | p-Value | |
1992–1997 | 0.149 | 6.709 | 0.000 | 0.176 | 7.824 | 0.000 |
1997–2002 | 0.181 | 8.102 | 0.000 | 0.118 | 5.261 | 0.000 |
2002–2006 | 0.027 | 1.409 | 0.159 | 0.147 | 6.562 | 0.000 |
2006–2011 | 0.228 | 10.773 | 0.000 | 0.197 | 8.711 | 0.000 |
2011–2016 | 0.292 | 13.791 | 0.000 | 0.202 | 8.936 | 0.000 |
2016–2020 | 0.249 | 11.407 | 0.000 | 0.229 | 10.154 | 0.000 |
1992–2020 | 0.240 | 10.878 | 0.000 | 0.212 | 9.369 | 0.000 |
Demographic Trajectory | Economic Trajectory (Percentage Change in the Number of Firms) | Total | |
---|---|---|---|
Declining | Growing | ||
Growth | 2 | 28 | 30 |
Mild Shrinkage | 8 | 17 | 25 |
Moderate Shrinkage | 9 | 34 | 43 |
Severe Shrinkage | 127 | 95 | 222 |
Total | 146 | 174 | 320 |
Demographic Trajectory | Economic Trajectory (Percentage Change in City’s Overall Turnover) | Total | |
---|---|---|---|
Declining | Growing | ||
Growth | 3 | 27 | 30 |
Mild shrinkage | 1 | 24 | 25 |
Moderate shrinkage | 10 | 33 | 43 |
Severe shrinkage | 41 | 181 | 222 |
Total | 55 | 265 | 320 |
Demographic Trajectory | Percentage Change in Local Revenues | Total | |
---|---|---|---|
<50% Increase | >50% Increase | ||
Growth | 12 | 18 | 30 |
Mild shrinkage | 13 | 12 | 25 |
Moderate shrinkage | 10 | 33 | 43 |
Severe shrinkage | 146 | 76 | 222 |
Total | 181 | 139 | 320 |
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Eva, M.; Cehan, A.; Lazăr, A. Patterns of Urban Shrinkage: A Systematic Analysis of Romanian Cities (1992–2020). Sustainability 2021, 13, 7514. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13137514
Eva M, Cehan A, Lazăr A. Patterns of Urban Shrinkage: A Systematic Analysis of Romanian Cities (1992–2020). Sustainability. 2021; 13(13):7514. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13137514
Chicago/Turabian StyleEva, Mihail, Alexandra Cehan, and Alexandra Lazăr. 2021. "Patterns of Urban Shrinkage: A Systematic Analysis of Romanian Cities (1992–2020)" Sustainability 13, no. 13: 7514. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13137514
APA StyleEva, M., Cehan, A., & Lazăr, A. (2021). Patterns of Urban Shrinkage: A Systematic Analysis of Romanian Cities (1992–2020). Sustainability, 13(13), 7514. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13137514