Path Analysis of Beijing’s Dematerialization Development Based on System Dynamics

Dematerialization is a phenomenon in which resource consumption and pollutant discharge decrease during economic development. In order to explore the optimal paths of Beijing’s dematerialization, this study combines material flow analysis method and the Tapio decoupling model to construct a city dematerialization evaluation model, and establishes a system dynamics model to simulate the comprehensive dematerialization levels and the dematerialization levels of eight materials under four scenarios. The results show that the key factors affecting the dematerialization levels of resource and discharge end were non-metals consumption and CO₂ emissions respectively. During 2016–2030, Beijing would achieve weak decoupling state under four scenarios, but the degree of dematerialization would be different. For the comprehensive dematerialization level, during 2017–2024, an industrial restructuring (IR) scenario, which would strengthen R&D investment and optimize the industrial structure, would be the optimal choice. During 2025–2030, an environmental governance (EG) scenario, which means increasing the investment in pollution control, would bring about the best dematerialization level. There would be differences in the optimal dematerialization paths for eight materials. For example, economic sustainable degrowth (ESD) and EG scenarios would be the optimal paths for dematerialization of atmospheric pollutants in the period 2017–2021 and 2022–2030, respectively.