A Novel Evaluation Approach of County-Level City Disaster Resilience and Urban Environmental Cleanliness Based on SDG11 and Deqing County’s Situation
Abstract
:1. Introduction
- (1)
- With the continuous strengthening of human activities on the environmental impact, the risk of disasters in human settlements is increasing [12]. Due to the urbanization and accumulation of wealth, the occurrence of catastrophes can produce Domino Effect. It turns isolated disaster into catastrophic events, even those last for a short time. Many elements of human settlement construction are affected by natural disasters. Therefore, the 2030 Agenda emphasizes the urgent need for humans to mitigate disaster risks, especially for strengthening the disaster resilience of cities and human settlements. It is necessary for city managers to reconsider the effects of climate change, reasonably reduce disaster risk and build resilience to natural disasters when building human settlements. Through studying on explaining the determinants of disaster resilience, the ability to measure resilience is increasingly being identified as a key step toward disaster risk reduction [13].
- (2)
- Improving environmental quality is critical to accelerate the process of urban resilience. It has also become a mandatory goal to implement the 2030 Agenda for the Chinese government. By optimizing the management of natural resources, human can reduce the possibility of natural disasters and the possibility of large-scale outbreaks of environmental pollution caused by disasters. The current high consumption economic model will bring a lot of pressure to the environmental carrying capacity. The positive impact of environmental factors in “2030 Agenda” needs to be used to address the challenges posed by climate change, environmental pollution and waste management [14,15,16].
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. County Situation Introduction
2.2. Data Collection
2.3. Methodology
2.3.1. Localization of Indicators
2.3.2. Calculation of Localized Indicators
2.3.3. Grey Time-Series Prediction Model
- (1)
- Sample of population and environmental pollutant concentration has N available ata: ,a new sequence can be generated by accumulation [39]. The corresponding differential equation of GM (1,1) is:Among them: α is called development gray number; μ is called endogenous control gray number.
- (2)
- Let be the parameter vector to be estimated: , which can be solved by the least squares method. The solution is:By solving the differential equation, the prediction model of per capita environmental impact can be obtained:
3. Results
3.1. Evaluation Results
3.2. Prediction Results of Urban per Capita Environmental Impact
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
References
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SDG 11: Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable [32] | ||
Target a | 11.5: By 2030, significantly reduce the number of deaths and the number of people affected and substantially decrease the direct economic losses relative to global gross domestic product caused by disasters, including water-related disasters, with a focus on protecting the poor and people in vulnerable situations. | 11.6: By 2030, reduce the adverse per capita environmental impact of cities, including by paying special attention to air quality and municipal and other waste management. |
Indicator b | 11.5.1: Number of deaths, missing persons and persons affected by disaster per 100,000 people | 11.6.1: Proportion of urban solid waste regularly collected and with adequate final discharge out of total urban solid waste generated, by cities |
11.5.2: Direct disaster economic loss in relation to global GDP, including disaster damage to critical infrastructure and disruption of basic services | 11.6.2: Annual mean levels of fine particulate matter (e.g. PM2.5 and PM10) in cities (population weighted) | |
Indicator localization c | 11.5.1: Number of deaths, missing persons and persons affected by disaster per 100,000 people | 11.6.1: Proportion of urban solid waste (living solid waste and industrial solid waste) regularly collected and with adequate final discharge out of total urban solid waste generated, by cities |
11.5.2: Direct disaster economic loss in relation to global GDP, including disaster damage to critical infrastructure and disruption of basic services | 11.6.2: Annual mean levels of fine particulate matter (e.g. PM2.5 and PM10) in cities (population weighted) | |
Description d | 11.5.1: Adopted the original indicator | 11.6.1: Revised the original indicator |
11.5.2: Revised the original indicator | 11.6.2: Adopted the original indicator |
Year | Percentage of Economic Losses Caused by Disasters |
---|---|
2011 | 0.92% |
2012 | 0.22% |
2013 | 0.27% |
2016 | 2.69% |
2017 | 0.74% |
Year | PM10 (with Population Weight)/ | PM2.5 (with Population Weight)/ |
---|---|---|
2014 | 14.87 | 23.32 |
2015 | 12.24 | 19.66 |
2016 | 9.74 | 15.46 |
2017 | 9.29 | 14.32 |
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Wang, Y.; Du, M.; Zhou, L.; Cai, G.; Bai, Y. A Novel Evaluation Approach of County-Level City Disaster Resilience and Urban Environmental Cleanliness Based on SDG11 and Deqing County’s Situation. Sustainability 2019, 11, 5713. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11205713
Wang Y, Du M, Zhou L, Cai G, Bai Y. A Novel Evaluation Approach of County-Level City Disaster Resilience and Urban Environmental Cleanliness Based on SDG11 and Deqing County’s Situation. Sustainability. 2019; 11(20):5713. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11205713
Chicago/Turabian StyleWang, Yani, Mingyi Du, Lei Zhou, Guoyin Cai, and Yongliang Bai. 2019. "A Novel Evaluation Approach of County-Level City Disaster Resilience and Urban Environmental Cleanliness Based on SDG11 and Deqing County’s Situation" Sustainability 11, no. 20: 5713. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11205713
APA StyleWang, Y., Du, M., Zhou, L., Cai, G., & Bai, Y. (2019). A Novel Evaluation Approach of County-Level City Disaster Resilience and Urban Environmental Cleanliness Based on SDG11 and Deqing County’s Situation. Sustainability, 11(20), 5713. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11205713