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Open AccessArticle

Winter Weather Anomalies and Individual Destination Choice

by Martin Falk 1,* and Eva Hagsten 2
Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO), Arsenal Objekt 20, A-1030 Vienna, Austria
School of Social Sciences, University of Iceland, Sæmundargata 2, 101 Reykjavík, Iceland
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Sustainability 2018, 10(8), 2630;
Received: 24 June 2018 / Revised: 19 July 2018 / Accepted: 23 July 2018 / Published: 26 July 2018
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Sustainable Winter Tourism in Changing Climate)
Recently, several winter seasons in the European Alps have been unexpectedly warm. In the Austrian mountains, December 2015 was the warmest since weather records began, with a temperature deviation of +6.6 °C compared to the long-term average. By use of data on 6200 individual trips from the Austrian travel survey, a multinomial Logit model is employed to estimate if weather anomalies affect the choice of winter trips. A substitution for more distant trips may create additional environmental burdens, given that they require longer travels or alternative transportation modes. Estimation results reveal that the choice of a mountain destination is not yet affected by extreme winter weather conditions. The result is valid for December 2015, as well as for the total winter season 2015/2016. However, December 2015 and 2016 exhibit a separate development with a significant increase in the likelihood of trips to non-mountains in Europe (mostly city breaks), although no traces of a direct substitution effect can be found. Younger and older people, as well as women, are less likely to go on a winter trip to the mountains. Residents with a tertiary degree and students are more interested in this, as well as large travel groups. View Full-Text
Keywords: travel decision; winter destinations; abnormal weather; leisure travel survey; multinomial Logit model travel decision; winter destinations; abnormal weather; leisure travel survey; multinomial Logit model
MDPI and ACS Style

Falk, M.; Hagsten, E. Winter Weather Anomalies and Individual Destination Choice. Sustainability 2018, 10, 2630.

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