Next Article in Journal
Hybrid Energy System with Optimized Storage for Improvement of Sustainability in a Small Town
Previous Article in Journal
Pricing Industrial Discharge Quota (IDQ): A Model Reflecting Opportunity Cost of Performing Ecological Responsibility
Open AccessArticle

Scenario Analysis of Urban Road Transportation Energy Demand and GHG Emissions in China—A Case Study for Chongqing

1
Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
2
School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
3
John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA
4
Department of Urban Planning, Luskin School of Public Affairs, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Sustainability 2018, 10(6), 2033; https://doi.org/10.3390/su10062033
Received: 23 April 2018 / Revised: 30 May 2018 / Accepted: 13 June 2018 / Published: 15 June 2018
(This article belongs to the Section Sustainable Transportation)
This study, using Chongqing City of China as an example, predicts the future motor vehicle population using the Gompertz Model and the motorcycle population using the piecewise regression model, and predicts and analyzes fuel consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of motor vehicles from 2016 to 2035 based on the bottom-up method under different scenarios of improving the fuel economy of conventional vehicles, promoting alternative fuel vehicles, and the mixed policy of the above two policy options. The results indicate that the total population of motor vehicles in Chongqing will increase from 4.61 million in 2015 to 10.15 million in 2035. In the business-as-usual scenario, the road-transportation energy demand in Chongqing will keep increasing from 2015 and will peak in 2030, before it begins to decline by 2035. The trends for the tank to wheel (TTW) and well to wheel (WTW) GHG emissions are similar to that of energy demand. The WTW GHG emissions will increase from 24.9 Mt CO2e in 2016 to 50.5 Mt CO2e in 2030 and will then gradually decline to 48.9 Mt CO2e in 2035. Under the policy scenarios of improving fuel economy of conventional fuel passenger cars, promoting alternative fuel vehicles, and their mixed policy, direct energy consumption and TTW and WTW GHG emissions from 2016 to 2035 will be reduced to different levels. It is also found that the two types of policies have a hedging effect on the direct energy-consumption saving, TTW, and WTW GHG emission reductions. Sensitivity analysis of key parameters and policy settings is conducted to investigate the impact of their changes on the vehicle population projection, direct energy demand, and WTW GHG emissions. Some policy implications are suggested to provide reference for the formulation and adjustment of Chongqing’s, or even China’s, low-carbon road transportation policies in the future based on the analysis results. View Full-Text
Keywords: road transportation; energy demand; GHG emission reduction; city level; policy mix road transportation; energy demand; GHG emission reduction; city level; policy mix
Show Figures

Figure 1

MDPI and ACS Style

Tan, X.; Zeng, Y.; Gu, B.; Wang, Y.; Xu, B. Scenario Analysis of Urban Road Transportation Energy Demand and GHG Emissions in China—A Case Study for Chongqing. Sustainability 2018, 10, 2033.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Access Map by Country/Region

1
Back to TopTop