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Article

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Conduct of Clinical Trials: A Quantitative Analysis

by
Wojciech Margas
1,*,
Piotr Wojciechowski
1 and
Mondher Toumi
2,3
1
Creativ-Ceutical, A Medistrava Company (Medical Division of Huntsworth), Ul. Przemysłowa 12, 30-701 Kraków, Poland
2
Creativ-Ceutical, Paris, France
3
Public Health Department, University of Aix-Marseille, Marseille, France
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
J. Mark. Access Health Policy 2022, 10(1), 2106627; https://doi.org/10.1080/20016689.2022.2106627
Submission received: 12 January 2022 / Revised: 18 July 2022 / Accepted: 23 July 2022 / Published: 9 August 2022

Abstract

Background: Globally, healthcare has shouldered much of the socioeconomic brunt of the COVID-19 pandemic leading to numerous clinical trials suspended or discontinued. Objective: To estimate the COVID-19 impact on the number of clinical trials worldwide. Methods: Data deposited by 219 countries in the ClinicalTrials.gov database (2007–2020) were interrogated using targeted queries. A time series model was fitted to the data for studies ongoing, initiated, or ended between 2007 Quarter (Q) 1 and 2019 Q4 to predict the expected trials number in 2020 in the COVID-19 absence. The predicted values were compared with the actual 2020 data to quantify the pandemic impact. Results: The ongoing registered trials number grew from 2007 Q1 (33,739) to 2019 Q4 (80,319). By contrast, there were markedly fewer ongoing trials in all four quarters of 2020 compared with forecasted values (1.6%–2.8% decrease). When excluding COVID-19-related studies, this disparity grew further (3.4%–5.8% decrease), to a peak of almost 5000 fewer ongoing trials than estimated for 2020 Q2. The initiated non-COVID-19 trials number was higher than predicted in 2020 Q4 (9.9%). Conclusions: This pandemic has impacted clinical trials. Provided that current trends persist, clinical trial activities may soon recover to at least pre-COVID-19 levels.
Keywords: clinical trial; COVID-19; forecasting methods; pandemics; regression analysis; time series model clinical trial; COVID-19; forecasting methods; pandemics; regression analysis; time series model

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MDPI and ACS Style

Margas, W.; Wojciechowski, P.; Toumi, M. Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Conduct of Clinical Trials: A Quantitative Analysis. J. Mark. Access Health Policy 2022, 10, 2106627. https://doi.org/10.1080/20016689.2022.2106627

AMA Style

Margas W, Wojciechowski P, Toumi M. Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Conduct of Clinical Trials: A Quantitative Analysis. Journal of Market Access & Health Policy. 2022; 10(1):2106627. https://doi.org/10.1080/20016689.2022.2106627

Chicago/Turabian Style

Margas, Wojciech, Piotr Wojciechowski, and Mondher Toumi. 2022. "Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Conduct of Clinical Trials: A Quantitative Analysis" Journal of Market Access & Health Policy 10, no. 1: 2106627. https://doi.org/10.1080/20016689.2022.2106627

APA Style

Margas, W., Wojciechowski, P., & Toumi, M. (2022). Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Conduct of Clinical Trials: A Quantitative Analysis. Journal of Market Access & Health Policy, 10(1), 2106627. https://doi.org/10.1080/20016689.2022.2106627

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