A Comparative Study on Traffic Modeling Techniques for Predicting and Simulating Traffic Behavior
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Motivations
3. Traffic Status Prediction
3.1. Short-Term Traffic Prediction
3.2. Long-Term Traffic Data Prediction
3.3. Challenges in Traffic Prediction
4. Spatiotemporal Traffic Prediction Models
4.1. The ST-Kriging Approach
4.2. Bayesian Inference Approach
4.3. The Artificial Neural Network Approach
4.4. Summary of Spatiotemporal Traffic Prediction Models
5. Traffic Simulation Models
5.1. Traffic Simulation Algorithms
- Car following models: A car-following algorithm is intended to describe how the simulated vehicles interact with the preceding vehicle in the same lane. For any car-following algorithm, the basic parameters used to define the speed–spacing relations are the capacity of a lane, the speed, and the average spacing between the preceding vehicle and the following vehicle [67]. Let n be the preceding vehicle, and be the following vehicle with a speed s and vehicle position x at time t. Therefore, the speed and position of the preceding vehicle are denoted by and , respectively. Similarly, the speed and position of the following vehicle are given by and , respectively [66,68]. The acceleration in speed is denoted by at time t, and the difference in speed between the preceding and the following vehicle is denoted by . Let t+ be the time period when the vehicle accelerates, where is the time required for the driver to respond to a changing scenario. As a result, the safe distance between the preceding and the following vehicle is computed as , which we refer to as the space headway . Let be the sensitivity coefficient parameter that is estimated by modeling the sensitivity of the relative distance between the following and preceding vehicles as well as the sensitivity of the relative speed for the subject vehicle [67,69]. The notations used to describe the car-following algorithm are shown in Figure 5, and the basic equation of the car-following algorithm can be represented as follows:Let be the sensitivity coefficient parameter that is estimated by modeling the sensitivity of the relative distance between the following and preceding vehicles, as well as the sensitivity of the relative speed for the subject vehicle.In traffic simulators, car-following algorithms adopt exact replicas of the car-following maneuvers which are carried out by drivers or automated vehicles in real driving conditions. The essential concept of the car following algorithms is to control the longitudinal motion of vehicles [70]. In real-world settings, autonomous vehicles such as Google cars or Apple cars integrate the data-driven machine learning car by following the model’s approach. This approach extracts the patterns or associated rules of drivers’ car following strategies and behaviors, in addition to capturing the relationships among variables that can have an impact on the car’s following behaviors. This approach yields high accuracy in replicating drivers’ car following behaviors for automated vehicles. Another car following model is the kinematics-based approach, which relies on kinematics processes such as the GM, intelligent driver, and safe distance approaches. These approaches adopt an explicit mathematical form, where most of the model parameters have physical meanings and the model outputs can be controlled through refined adjustments of the model parameters [71].
- Lane Changing Models: Lane-changing algorithms are used to simulate the impact of vehicles on adjacent lanes as they change lanes. These algorithms take into account the speed and position of the preceding vehicle as well as the time when this action takes place [72]. The concept of the lane-changing algorithm can be simply described as follows. When the vehicle intends to change lanes, the model assesses the existing headway space to determine whether changing lanes is achievable. If it is, then the process happens. If not, then the vehicle remains in the current lane [73]. A simple illustration of the lane-changing decision of a vehicle is depicted in Figure 6. The model must meet certain criteria such that for a given adjacent lane, both the space headway for the following and preceding cars must be more than the unsafe distance, which can be computed as follows:Let and denote the following and preceding vehicle speeds, respectively, and b be the vehicle’s maximum deceleration. We refer to the actual vehicle following distance if the vehicle moved into the adjacent lane by d. Equation (9) is derived from Equations (7) and (8), which compute the smallest acceptable headway gap between each vehicle C and the minimum safe distance between the subject vehicle and the following vehicle [66,74].
- Gap acceptance models: Gap-acceptance models are mainly used to determine the traffic conditions in adjacent lanes prior to a vehicle accessing the available space. They are used to estimate the amount of space and time required to cross a junction, enter a roundabout, or change lanes [75]. These two factors are dependent on the traffic conditions, such as the road characteristics, the speed, and the lengths of the following and preceding vehicles as well as the passive vehicle. The minimum safe distance between the subject vehicle and the following vehicle, which is also known as the critical gap, is a significant parameter affecting gap acceptance behavior. An important assumption that has to be addressed in the gap acceptance models is the headway distribution in the circulating flow to measure the road capacity [66,76]:
5.2. Traffic Simulation Tools
- The Verkehr In Städten - SIMulationsmodell (VISSIM) is a commercial microscopic traffic simulation tool developed by Planning Transport Verkehr in Karlsruhe, Germany [77]. VISSIM is one of the common simulation tools used to simulate and evaluate traffic status and transportation control systems. It can simulate different elements such as buses, trucks, pedestrians, and bicycles. VISSIM uses the component object model (COM) interface, which enables users to create and deploy a custom tool in VISSIM using C++, Visual Basic, or Python [54]. The latest versions of VISSIM incorporate additional autonomous vehicle-related features (communication and cooperation among vehicles) and detailed behavior specifications. The aforementioned features will utilize cooperation in lane changing and advanced merging algorithms for enhanced traffic network scaling. In this simulator, smaller headways have been chosen to model the cooperation among vehicles. Other add-on features are the new means of mobility that have also been introduced within the VISSIM simulator, which include cooperative autonomous vehicles (CAVs) and mobility as a service (MAAS) [78]. VISSIM is a microscopic traffic simulator for behavior-based multi-purpose traffic flow simulation [79].
- Advanced Interactive Microscopic Simulator for Urban and Non-Urban Networks (AIMSUN) is a new simulation tool that was developed by J. Barcelo and J.L. Ferrer in 2005 [80]. It is a commercial simulation tool that is capable of simulating real-world traffic situations in an urban network in order to build and validate traffic structures, public transportation networks, and new transportation infrastructure [54]. AIMSUN is integrated with GETRAM, a simulation environment that includes different components: a traffic network editor (TEDI), a network database, a simulation module, and an application programming interface [81]. AIMSUN has developed AIMSUN LIVE, which integrates predictive-based systems that can provide real-time traffic prediction and management. In this aspect, AIMSUN LIVE can provide accurate real-time predictions of future traffic flow patterns that can be the outcome of a specific traffic management strategy. This is because AIMSUN LIVE leverages the combination of historical and real-time streaming data along with traffic congestion mitigation policies to provide accurate traffic forecasting. Subsequently, this can assist traffic control centers in utilizing the aforementioned traffic data to make real-time decisions about road network management [55].
- Multi-Agent Transport Simulation (MATSim) is another open-source simulation tool developed by the Polytechnic of Zurich that offers a range of tools for implementing very large simulation-based agents. In MATSIM, agents hold a list that simulates the daily routine of traffic in a large area. MATSIM adopts activity-based methods that are used to model travel demand. Since MATSIM is an agent-based simulator, these agents hold a list of actionable plans and choices which includes traditional traffic properties (e.g., travel routes and modes) and time schedules. In the MATSIM simulator, agents make their decisions according to the utilization of the integrated discrete choice models [82]. MATSIM mainly focuses on modeling individual vehicle behavior, which can be considered a drawback if we are interested in traffic behavior in general [54,83].
- Simulation of Urban MObility (SUMO) is an open-source simulation tool that was developed in 2001 by the Institute of Transportation Systems at the German Aerospace Centre. It is capable of simulating traffic at the microscopic level and simulates moving vehicles and accidents [84]. In this simulator, the vehicle width is fixed, and it does not take into account the different types of vehicles such as buses, light rail, heavy rail, and trucks [54,77]. SUMO is designed as an intermodal traffic-based simulator that includes public transportation, traffic road networks, and users such as pedestrians. SUMO simulators encompass a number of built-in features which include C2X communication among vehicles that are achieved through the integration of SUMO simulators with network simulators (such as OMNeT++ or ns-3), multi-modal traffic, and automated driving. Traffic management is also an additional add-on feature that can model vehicle detection loops and video detectors to manage and control traffic through traffic lights, monitoring vehicles’ behaviors and adjusting traffic parameters such as vehicles’ speed limits [58,85].
- CORridor SIMulation (CORSIM) [86] is known as one of the most widely used microscopic traffic simulator software programs worldwide. CORSIM is used in thousands of applications as a standard traffic simulation tool. CORSIM is equipped with reliable validation, continuous logic enhancement, solid verification, and calibration efforts. It can produce real-world traffic flow realistically and with high accuracy. All types of geometric conditions including complicated traffic scenarios can be handled virtually by CORSIM. Some of these conditions include the surfaces of streets that have different combinations of turning pockets and lanes, different types of on and off-ramps, and multi-lane freeway segments.
- Paramics addresses road networks with drivers and simulates the decisions, intentions, and subsequent actions of drivers when they move toward their destinations [87]. Depending on the characteristics of the basic network and the probability of encountering traffic congestion, drivers are considered to choose the possible route in the simulator. A set of decisions is prioritized by each driver throughout the network. These decisions include traffic speed and specific moments to change, cross, or merge into different traffic lanes. In the Paramics simulator, the network topology and travel demand drive the calibration. Flows of saturation and the proportion of lane usage are generated as outputs from the simulator to examine the road network’s performance. However, these parameters cannot be provided as input for calibration assistance. Although Paramics does not prescribe the effect of a traffic model, it can simulate and model the cause of action. This way, the simulator preserves the predictive power of the simulation process in subsequent changes in the model and tests the change in the traffic road network.
- The TRansportation ANalysis and SIMulation System (TRANSIMS) creates an integrated regional transportation system environment by employing advanced computational and analytical techniques [88]. The simulation environment includes a regional population of individual travelers. TRANSIMS simulates the activities and individual interactions of travelers and their plans for the transportation system. It also simulates and determines the environmental impact of these activities. TRANSIMS contains an interim operational capability (IOC) with numerous features, applicability, and readiness for each major module to complete different types of specific traffic case studies.
5.3. Summary of the Traffic Simulation Tools
- A major drawback of the exciting simulation tools is the inability to implement or integrate advanced Bayesian-based models or algorithms. They use the objective optimization algorithm to simulate traffic behavior based on different traffic parameters such as route choice and vehicle movement.
- Another issue that has gained the attention of the traffic simulation community is the CPU and memory performance. Adding a number of parameters to represent different aspects of the traffic simulation model such as traffic speed, the number of lanes, route length, and the width of the lane requires high usage of memory and the CPU, thus increasing the computation time.
- These traffic simulators embed sample events that we examine for their impact on the traffic status. These events are implemented as modules to represent limited events. These traffic simulators share similar events such as traffic acceleration events, traffic deceleration events, and traffic red signal events.
Feature Simulator | MATSim | AIMSUN | VISSIM | SUMO | CORSIM | Paramics | TRANSIMS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Open Source | Yes | No | No | Yes | No | No | Yes |
Visualization | 2D | 2D, 3D | 2D, 3D | 2D, 3D | 2D, 3D | 2D, 3D | 2D, 3D |
Output | Text | Graphs | XML | XML | Text | Graphs | XML |
Import Map | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Programming Language | C++, Java | Python, C++ | C++, VB, Matlab, Python | C++, VB, Matlab, Python | Python, C++ | C++, VB, Matlab, Python | C++, VB, Matlab, Python |
Flexibility in infrastructure Development | Limited | Flexible | Flexible | Flexible | Flexible | Flexible | Flexible |
Coding | Easy | Difficult | Easy | Difficult | Difficult | Easy | Difficult |
Objectives | Simulate traffic congestion level | Simulate vehicle counts, road occupancy, and traffic speed | Simulate and analyze traffic flow | Evaluate the traffic light system | Simulate traffic flow and traffic light system | Simulate traffic congestion level | Simulate and analyze traffic flow |
6. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Bayesian Inferences | ST-Kriging | ANNs | |
---|---|---|---|
Computational Complexity | NP-hard. [41] | . | or for training a single epoch [42]. |
Performance Evaluation | Provides a posterior probability distribution with confidence interval. | Ensure linear unbiased predictors. | Epoch with the lowest sum of squared error. |
Weaknesses | Very computationally intensive due to choosing the proper prior distribution. |
| Requires intensive data training, and this might lead to an overfitting problem. |
Strengths |
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Overcoming the Limitation | Use uninformative prior to reducing the computational time, but it can affect the prediction accuracy negatively. | Remove observations that include missing values. |
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Alghamdi, T.; Mostafi, S.; Abdelkader, G.; Elgazzar, K. A Comparative Study on Traffic Modeling Techniques for Predicting and Simulating Traffic Behavior. Future Internet 2022, 14, 294. https://doi.org/10.3390/fi14100294
Alghamdi T, Mostafi S, Abdelkader G, Elgazzar K. A Comparative Study on Traffic Modeling Techniques for Predicting and Simulating Traffic Behavior. Future Internet. 2022; 14(10):294. https://doi.org/10.3390/fi14100294
Chicago/Turabian StyleAlghamdi, Taghreed, Sifatul Mostafi, Ghadeer Abdelkader, and Khalid Elgazzar. 2022. "A Comparative Study on Traffic Modeling Techniques for Predicting and Simulating Traffic Behavior" Future Internet 14, no. 10: 294. https://doi.org/10.3390/fi14100294
APA StyleAlghamdi, T., Mostafi, S., Abdelkader, G., & Elgazzar, K. (2022). A Comparative Study on Traffic Modeling Techniques for Predicting and Simulating Traffic Behavior. Future Internet, 14(10), 294. https://doi.org/10.3390/fi14100294