Expert Elicitation on Exposure to Tick Bites and Tick-Borne Encephalitis Risk in Occupational and Recreational Forest Activities
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Context and Expert-Opinion Elicitation
- ▪
- Sheet entitled ‘Expert information’: this was intended to briefly describe the profile of the expert completing the questionnaire.
- ▪
- A set of seven sheets concerning the various criteria considered: (1) frequency of the activity; (2) seasonality; (3) duration of exposure; (4) distance covered; (5) degree of contact with vegetation; (6) speed; and (7) average level of protection against tick bites. These sheets were designed to gather the opinion of each expert by assigning a score for each of the criteria defined for each activity. Each sheet in the file provided the necessary instructions and details (e.g., definitions of activities and scores) (Table 1 and Table 2).
- ▪
- Sheet entitled ‘weighting of criteria’: this was intended to distribute a fixed number of points (n = 70) among the seven various criteria mentioned above. If the expert considered the criteria to be equivalent, he/she assigned the same number of points to each. Otherwise, he/she assigned the number of points in proportion to the relative importance of the criteria considered.
- ▪
- Sheet entitled ‘uncertainty’: for each criterion, they were also asked to give an uncertainty rating between 1 (minimum uncertainty) and 5 (maximum uncertainty).
2.2. Scoring System and Clustering of Activities
2.3. Sensitivity Analysis
2.4. Uncertainty Analysis and Additional Statistical Analysis
3. Results
3.1. Number of Experts and Their Field of Expertise
3.2. Relative Importance of Criteria and Their Uncertainty
3.3. Ranking and Clustering of Forest Activities
3.4. Sensitivity Analysis
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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| Activity | Definition |
|---|---|
| (i) Professional activities | |
| A01. Scientific and/or analytical activities | Activities related to experimentation, prospecting, or collection in forests by naturalists, entomologists, geologists, botanists, mycologists, etc. |
| A02. Forestry and timber industry activities | Forestry activities aimed at maintaining forests for commercial exploitation (reforestation, planting, forest regeneration) or forestry operations, covering activities related to timber harvesting in the broad sense (felling, skidding, etc.). |
| A03. Forest protection activities | Activities related to the protection or monitoring of a specific forest area. The professionals involved are mainly forest rangers, forest naturalists, etc. |
| (ii) Leisure activities | |
| A04. Walk | A walk is a pedestrian route undertaken for the purpose of going outdoors to relax or exercise. |
| A05. Hiking | Hiking is an outdoor sporting activity that involves planning and following a route on foot, without running. |
| A06. Nordic walking | Nordic walking is a dynamic form of walking in the countryside. It combines endurance and aerobic exercise with fast walking using special walking poles. |
| A07. Jogging in a wooded area (slow running) | Running for physical exercise. |
| A08. Trail | A trail run is a running event that takes place in a natural environment. |
| A09. Orienteering | It is a race against the clock on varied terrain, on a course marked with checkpoints that competitors must find by following routes of their choice, using a map and compass. |
| A10. Fitness trail | This is a sporting walk punctuated by a series of physical or meditative activities, usually in a natural setting. |
| A11. Picking berries or fruit | An activity that involves picking edible fruits (especially berries), seeds, leaves, stems, or roots from certain plants found in nature. |
| A12. Mushroom picking | An activity that involves picking mushrooms in nature. |
| A13. Mountain bike | Mountain biking is a cycling activity practised on rough terrain, away from paved roads. |
| A14. Touring bike | Touring cycling is a sporting and leisure activity that involves riding on paths and trails at varying speeds. |
| A15. Horse riding | Horse riding, which can be mounted or harnessed, is an outdoor leisure activity. It is also referred to as outdoor riding or nature riding. |
| A16. Off-road motorcycling | Motorcycling activities that take place on dirt roads or unpaved tracks that are more or less wild. This includes enduro, trail and touring activities. |
| A17. Quad | An activity that involves driving an open-top, single-seater or two-seater, four-wheeled off-road vehicle for trail riding. |
| A18. Tree climbing | An outdoor sport practised in forests, combining climbing and moving from tree to tree along a secure course. |
| A19. Climbing | A sport that involves climbing a rock face to reach the summit of a mountain. |
| A20. Nature activities | Naturalists’ activities include observing, protecting, photographing and analysing ‘natural beings’ in the fields of botany, zoology and mineralogy. |
| A21. Forest therapy (forest bathing), relaxation | A practice that involves connecting with nature to improve mental and physical health. |
| A22. Fishing (pond and river) | Fishing is the activity of catching aquatic animals (fish, crustaceans, cephalopods, etc.) in their forest habitat (streams, ponds, lakes, pools). |
| A23. Lying/sitting on the grass | An activity that involves staying in a stationary position on the ground, in the grass, to rest, contemplate nature or eat (picnic). |
| A24. Outdoor games | Recreational activities that take place outdoors in an unstructured and freely chosen manner. These may include sports games (pétanque, frisbee, ball games, etc.), children’s games, treasure hunts, life-size role-playing games, etc. |
| A25. Wood gathering/harvesting (cutting wood for private individuals) | In several countries, cutting or collecting wood in forests is strictly regulated. Wood gathering is the right of local residents to cut wood on communal land. |
| A26. Spending the night in the forest | This may involve spending the night in the forest in a more or less basic camp, usually as part of an activity such as scouting, camping or bivouacking for a hike. |
| C. Hunting activities | |
| A27. Hunting as shooting and battue | Hunting with firearms (shotguns, rifles or bows), which can be practised individually or in groups, without dogs or with one or more dogs. |
| A28. Stalking | Hunting from a hide, in which the hunter waits for game in a specific location, hidden and ready to shoot. |
| Criterion (Number of Score Modalities) | Score | Definition |
|---|---|---|
| Frequency of activity (4 modalities) | 1 | Very occasionally (a few times a year) |
| 2 | Occasionally (once or twice a month) | |
| 3 | Fairly frequently (once or twice a week) | |
| 4 | Frequently (more than twice a week) | |
| Seasonality (4 modalities) | 1 | Never during the tick season |
| 2 | Sometimes during the tick season | |
| 3 | Frequently during the tick season | |
| 4 | Still during the tick activity period | |
| Duration of exposure (4 modalities) | 1 | Less than 1 h |
| 2 | Between 1 and 4 h | |
| 3 | Between 4 and 8 h | |
| 4 | More than 8 h | |
| Distance covered during the activity (5 modalities) | 0 | Less than 1 km |
| 1 | Between 1 and 5 km | |
| 2 | Between 5 and 20 km | |
| 3 | Between 20 and 50 km | |
| 4 | More than 50 km | |
| Degree of contact with vegetation (5 modalities) | 0 | Negligible to none |
| 1 | Low | |
| 2 | Medium | |
| 3 | High | |
| 4 | Very high | |
| Speed during the activity (5 modalities) | 0 | On-site activity |
| 1 | Less than 3 km/h | |
| 2 | Between 3 and 8 km/h | |
| 3 | Between 8 and 13 km/h | |
| 4 | More than 13 km/h | |
| Overall level of protection against tick bites (9 modalities) | 0 | No protection |
| 1 | Non-specific protection provided by clothing or protection related to the activity performed (e.g., motorcycle suit). | |
| 2 | Specific use of protective clothing | |
| 3 | Specific use of skin repellents | |
| 4 | Body inspection after exposure | |
| 5 | Use of two specific means of protection: wearing protective clothing and using skin repellents | |
| 6 | Use of two specific means of protection: wearing protective clothing and body inspection after exposure | |
| 7 | Use of two specific means of protection: use of skin repellents and body inspection after exposure. | |
| 8 | Use of three specific means of protection: wearing protective clothing, use of skin repellents and body inspection after exposure |
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Saegerman, C.; Quillery, E.; Leandri, M.; Raimond, V.; Kooh, P.; Fravalo, P.; Hoch, T.; Hansman, Y.; Boulanger, N. Expert Elicitation on Exposure to Tick Bites and Tick-Borne Encephalitis Risk in Occupational and Recreational Forest Activities. Viruses 2026, 18, 82. https://doi.org/10.3390/v18010082
Saegerman C, Quillery E, Leandri M, Raimond V, Kooh P, Fravalo P, Hoch T, Hansman Y, Boulanger N. Expert Elicitation on Exposure to Tick Bites and Tick-Borne Encephalitis Risk in Occupational and Recreational Forest Activities. Viruses. 2026; 18(1):82. https://doi.org/10.3390/v18010082
Chicago/Turabian StyleSaegerman, Claude, Elsa Quillery, Marc Leandri, Véronique Raimond, Pauline Kooh, Philippe Fravalo, Thierry Hoch, Yves Hansman, and Nathalie Boulanger. 2026. "Expert Elicitation on Exposure to Tick Bites and Tick-Borne Encephalitis Risk in Occupational and Recreational Forest Activities" Viruses 18, no. 1: 82. https://doi.org/10.3390/v18010082
APA StyleSaegerman, C., Quillery, E., Leandri, M., Raimond, V., Kooh, P., Fravalo, P., Hoch, T., Hansman, Y., & Boulanger, N. (2026). Expert Elicitation on Exposure to Tick Bites and Tick-Borne Encephalitis Risk in Occupational and Recreational Forest Activities. Viruses, 18(1), 82. https://doi.org/10.3390/v18010082

