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Article

Social Restrictions versus Testing Campaigns in the COVID-19 Crisis: A Predictive Model Based on the Spanish Case

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Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, Hospital Clínico San Carlos, IdISSC and IML Health Institutes, Council of Public Health, Prof Martín Lagos, s/n, 28040 Madrid, Spain
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Scientific & Medical Affairs, Global Health Economics and Outcomes Research, Grifols S.A., Av. Generalitat, 152 (SC3), Sant Cugat del Vallès, 08174 Barcelona, Spain
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Health Economics and Outcomes Research, IQVIA, Juan Esplandiú, 11, 28007 Madrid, Spain
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AQR-IREA, Deptment of Econometrics, Statistics and Applied Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Barcelona, Av. Diagonal, 690-696, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
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Department of Medical Specialties and Public Health, Rey Juan Carlos University, Avenida de Atenas s/n, Alcorcón, 28922 Madrid, Spain
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Department of Infectious Diseases, Internal Medicine, Hospital La Paz, Council of Public Health, European University of Madrid, Paseo de la Castellana, 261, 28046 Madrid, Spain
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Public Health Laboratory, Council of Public Health, Calle Sierra de Alquife, 8, 28053 Madrid, Spain
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Software Development Stat Services, IQVIA Commercial sp. z o.o., Domaniewska 48, 02-672 Warsaw, Poland
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Health Council, Community of Madrid, Madrid, C/O’Donnell, 55, 4th Floor, 28009 Madrid, Spain
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Scientific & Medical Affairs, Global Health Economics and Outcomes Research, Grifols SSNA, 79 TW Alexander Dr Bldg. 4101, Durham, NC 27713, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Manuel Ramos-Casals
Viruses 2021, 13(5), 917; https://doi.org/10.3390/v13050917
Received: 23 March 2021 / Revised: 10 May 2021 / Accepted: 12 May 2021 / Published: 15 May 2021
(This article belongs to the Special Issue COVID-19—Advances in Clinical and Epidemiological Aspects)
The global COVID-19 spread has forced countries to implement non-pharmacological interventions (NPI) (i.e., mobility restrictions and testing campaigns) to preserve health systems. Spain is one of the most severely impacted countries, both clinically and economically. In an effort to support policy decision-making, we aimed to assess the impacts of different NPI on COVID-19 epidemiology, healthcare costs and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). A modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed epidemiological model was created to simulate the pandemic evolution. Its output was used to populate an economic model to quantify healthcare costs and GDP variation through a regression model which correlates NPI and GDP change from 42 countries. Thirteen scenarios combining different NPI were consecutively simulated in the epidemiological and economic models. Both increased testing and stringency could reduce cases, hospitalizations and deaths. While policies based on increased testing rates lead to higher healthcare costs, increased stringency is correlated with greater GDP declines, with differences of up to 4.4% points. Increased test sensitivity may lead to a reduction of cases, hospitalizations and deaths and to the implementation of pooling techniques that can increase throughput testing capacity. Alternative strategies to control COVID-19 spread entail differing economic outcomes. Decision-makers may utilize this tool to identify the most suitable strategy considering epidemiological and economic outcomes. View Full-Text
Keywords: SEIR; COVID-19; health policy; economic impact; molecular test SEIR; COVID-19; health policy; economic impact; molecular test
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    Doi: https://doi.org/10.34810/data111
    Link: https://doi.org/10.34810/data111
    Description: Data set for a predictive model for Spain on the economic impact of the COVID-19 crisis: The global COVID-19 spread has forced countries to implement non-pharmacological interventions (NPI) to preserve health systems. Spain is one of the most severely impacted countries, both clinically and economically. In an effort to support policy decision-making, Candel et (2021) have developed a modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) epidemiological model to simulate the pandemic evolution. Its output was used to populate an economic model to quantify healthcare costs and GDP variation, through a regression model which correlates NPI and GDP change from 42 countries. The dataset contains information on the main variables used in order to specify and estimate this predictive model.
MDPI and ACS Style

Candel, F.J.; Viayna, E.; Callejo, D.; Ramos, R.; San-Roman-Montero, J.; Barreiro, P.; Carretero, M.d.M.; Kolipiński, A.; Canora, J.; Zapatero, A.; Runken, M.C. Social Restrictions versus Testing Campaigns in the COVID-19 Crisis: A Predictive Model Based on the Spanish Case. Viruses 2021, 13, 917. https://doi.org/10.3390/v13050917

AMA Style

Candel FJ, Viayna E, Callejo D, Ramos R, San-Roman-Montero J, Barreiro P, Carretero MdM, Kolipiński A, Canora J, Zapatero A, Runken MC. Social Restrictions versus Testing Campaigns in the COVID-19 Crisis: A Predictive Model Based on the Spanish Case. Viruses. 2021; 13(5):917. https://doi.org/10.3390/v13050917

Chicago/Turabian Style

Candel, Francisco Javier, Elisabet Viayna, Daniel Callejo, Raul Ramos, Jesús San-Roman-Montero, Pablo Barreiro, María del Mar Carretero, Adam Kolipiński, Jesus Canora, Antonio Zapatero, and Michael Chris Runken. 2021. "Social Restrictions versus Testing Campaigns in the COVID-19 Crisis: A Predictive Model Based on the Spanish Case" Viruses 13, no. 5: 917. https://doi.org/10.3390/v13050917

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