Decoding China’s Smart Forestry Policies: A Multi-Level Evaluation via LDA and PMC-TE Index
Abstract
1. Introduction
1.1. Background
1.2. Literature Review
1.2.1. Research on Smart Forestry
1.2.2. Policy Evaluation Methods and Analytical Tools
- (i)
- Causal Inference and Empirical Evaluation
- (ii)
- Policy Text Analysis and Structure Modeling
- (iii)
- Policy Instrument Typologies and Governance Logic
1.2.3. Remaining Gaps in the Literature
1.3. Research Objectives and Contribution
- (i)
- Theoretically, this study contributes to the ongoing shift from outcome-based to structure-oriented policy analysis, enriching the understanding of how digital governance logics are embedded in multi-level smart forestry policy design.
- (ii)
- Methodologically, it builds a replicable and scalable framework integrating textual analysis, instrument classification, and coherence modeling for complex environmental policy.
- (iii)
- Practically, it delivers empirical insights into the structural configuration and underlying logic of smart forestry policies and offers a transferable framework for improving policy coherence in other national and regional contexts undergoing digital transformation in environmental governance.
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Data Collection and Preprocessing
2.1.1. Data Collection
2.1.2. Text Preprocessing
2.2. Identification of Policy Themes
2.2.1. LDA Topic Modeling Approach
- Topic Coherence: This measures the co-occurrence of keywords within each topic, reflecting the semantic coherence of the topic. Higher values indicate tighter semantic cohesion within the topic. This study used the c_v metric for calculation.
- Perplexity: This measures the model’s ability to predict unseen documents. A lower value indicates a stronger ability to generalize. This study used log-perplexity for measurement.
- Kullback–Leibler divergence (KL divergence): It measures the deviation between the average topic distribution learned by the model and the theoretical uniform distribution, reflecting topic distinctiveness.
- Jensen–Shannon divergence (JSD): A symmetric improvement of KL divergence that is used to assess the balance and separability of the overall topic distribution. Values range from 0 to 1.
2.2.2. Topic Identification and Policy Selection
2.3. Analysis of Policy Instruments
2.4. Quantification of Policy Effectiveness
- (i)
- Constructing the multi-input–output matrix based on the variable indicator system;
- (ii)
- Categorizing variables and assigning values to corresponding parameters;
- (iii)
- Calculating the PMC index through standardized scoring rules;
- (iv)
- Visualizing the results through the construction of the PMC surface.
2.4.1. Classification of Variables and Identification of Parameters
2.4.2. Construction of the Multi-Input–Output Matrix
2.4.3. Measurement of the PMC Index
- (i)
- Input the 9 main variables and 32 sub-variables into the multi-input–output matrix.
- (ii)
- Evaluate sub-variable by sub-variable according to the parameters mentioned above (see Expressions (1) and (2)).
- (iii)
- Calculate the value of each main variable by averaging the scores of its sub-variables (see Expression (3)).
- (iv)
- Measure the PMC index by summing the values of all main variables (see Expression (4)).
2.4.4. Construction of the PMC Surface
3. Results
3.1. Topic Modeling of Smart Forestry Policies
3.2. Typological Classification of Smart Forestry Policy Instruments
- (i)
- Supply-side instruments: Seven themes primarily encompass technical support and digital infrastructure. These instruments reflect direct governmental investment in areas such as funding, platforms, and technology. Representative themes include forestry technology and germplasm innovation, intelligent sensing and monitoring support, and digital economy and infrastructure development.
- (ii)
- Demand-side instruments: Two themes emphasize the enhancement of public services and the empowerment of rural sectors, focusing on service accessibility and livelihood support. Representative themes include digital circulation and livelihood services and rural industry and agricultural empowerment.
- (iii)
- Environmental instruments: Four themes focus on ecological norms, institutional mechanisms, and governance coordination. Examples include forest supervision and data governance, policy coordination and mobilization mechanisms, and ecological governance and disaster control.
3.3. Structural Consistency and Coherence Evaluation Based on the PMC-TE Model
3.3.1. Overall Evaluation of PMC-TE Scores
- Seven policies (approximately 27%) rated as ‘Perfect’, demonstrating high structural integrity and coordination;
- Nine policies (approximately 35%) were rated as ‘Excellent’, performing well in most secondary indicators.
- Seven policies (approximately 27%) were rated as ‘Average’, with certain dimensions lacking completeness or coordination.
- Three policies (approximately 11%) were classified as ‘Acceptable’, exhibiting a weak overall structure with noticeable logical gaps and missing elements.
3.3.2. Structural Heterogeneity Analysis
4. Discussion
4.1. Strategic Priorities and Policy Instrument Balance
- (i)
- Enhance demand-side participation. Introduce incentive mechanisms that encourage local governments, rural entities, and forestry cooperatives to participate actively in smart forestry development.
- (ii)
- Strengthen the closed-loop logic between tools. Use ecological indicators to connect platform construction, monitoring data, and feedback mechanisms to achieve a closed-loop governance system of “goal-execution-feedback.”
- (iii)
- Promote the construction of institutionalized coordination mechanisms. Learn from the EU’s cross-departmental coordination experience to establish a joint forestry policy or information-sharing mechanism that reduces departmental barriers.
4.2. Practical Meaning of Structural Coherence
- (i)
- Establish a closed-loop feedback structure that connects planning, implementation, and evaluation.
- (ii)
- Strengthen resilience through coherent time design and stakeholder adaptability.
- (iii)
- Promote modular and participatory tool configuration to enhance system responsiveness.
5. Conclusions
5.1. Research Conclusions
5.2. Marginal Contributions
5.3. Research Limitations and Future Prospects
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
Topic ID | Category | Region | Policy Document Title | Document Issuance Number | Release Date |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Supply-side instruments | Jilin | Jilin Province Digital Agriculture Development “14th Five-Year Plan” (2021-2025) | JNongShiFa (2021) No. 9 | 13 May 2021 |
Jilin | Implementation Opinions of the General Office of Jilin Provincial People’s Government on Smart Agriculture Development | JZhengBanFa (2022) No. 34 | 8 October 2022 | ||
2 | Supply-side instruments | Central | Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Development of China Forestry Cloud | LinXinFa (2017) No. 116 | 25 October 2017 |
Central | National Forestry Informatization Construction Technical Guide | LinBanFa (2009) No. 23 | 1 February 2009 | ||
3 | Demand-side instruments | Central | “14th Five-Year Plan” Forestry and Grassland Protection Development Plan Outline | LinGuiFa (2021) No. 108 | 14 December 2021 |
Central | Guiding Opinions of the National Forestry and Grassland Administration on Promoting High-Quality Development of Forestry and Grassland Industries | LinGaiFa (2019) No. 14 | 19 February 2019 | ||
4 | Environment-type instruments | Central | “Internet Plus” Forestry Action Plan—National Forestry Informatization “13th Five-Year” Development Plan | LinGuiFa (2016) No. 116 | 22 March 2016 |
Central | National Forestry Informatization Development “12th Five-Year” Plan | LinGuiFa (2011) No. 183 | 30 November 2011 | ||
5 | Supply-side instruments | Fujian | Construction Plan for Six Service Platforms for High-Quality Forestry Development | MinLinWen (2024) No. 77 | 26 August 2024 |
Fujian | Fujian Province Implementation Plan for Comprehensively Accelerating Digital Empowerment of High-Quality Economic and Social Development | MinZheng (2025) No. 4 | 18 February 2025 | ||
6 | Environment-type instruments | Heilongjiang | Heilongjiang Province Grassland Ecological Protection, Restoration and Utilization Plan | HeiLinCaoFa (2021) No. 63 | 15 November 2021 |
Jilin | Beautiful Jilin Construction Action Plan (2024–2027) | JZhengBanFa (2024) No. 21 | 11 December 2024 | ||
7 | Environment-type instruments | Jilin | Jilin Province Pilot Scheme for Establishing Modern State-Owned Forest Farms | JiLinLianFa (2020) No. 26 | 18 September 2020 |
Heilongjiang | 2020 Central Budget Investment Plan for Grassland Fire Prevention Projects | HeiLinCaoGui (2020) No. 12 | 26 April 2020 | ||
8 | Environment-type instruments | Central | Forestry Development “13th Five-Year” Plan | LinGuiFa (2016) No. 60 | 6 May 2016 |
Central | Typical Cases of Forestry Reform and Development in Fujian Province (Second Batch) | MinLinWen (2024) No. 47 | 7 June 2024 | ||
9 | Supply-side instruments | Heilongjiang | Heilongjiang Province Digital Forestry and Grassland Construction Plan (2018–2025)–Ecological System Chapter | HeiZhengBanGui (2018) No. 3 | 1 December 2018 |
Heilongjiang | Heilongjiang Province Digital Forestry and Grassland Construction Plan (2018–2025) | HeiZhengBanGui (2018) No. 3 | 1 December 2018 | ||
10 | Supply-side instruments | Heilongjiang | Heilongjiang Province “14th Five-Year” Digital Economy Development Plan | HeiZhengFa (2022) No. 9 | 22 March 2022 |
Fujian | 2023 Key Tasks for Digital Fujian Construction | MinZhengBan (2023) No. 16 | 22 May 2023 | ||
11 | Demand-side instruments | Jilin | Jilin Province Big Data Regulations | Jilin Province 13th People’s Congress Standing Committee Announcement No. 25 | 27 November 2020 |
Heilongjiang | Heilongjiang Province Regulations on Promoting Big Data Development and Application | Heilongjiang Province 13th People’s Congress Standing Committee Announcement No. 33 | 1 July 2022 | ||
12 | Environment-type instruments | Heilongjiang | Heilongjiang Province Digital Forestry and Grassland Construction Plan (2018–2025)–Supervision System Chapter | HeiZhengBanGui (2018) No. 3 | 1 December 2018 |
Heilongjiang | Heilongjiang Province Interim Measures for Satellite Remote Sensing Monitoring of Forestry and Grassland Resources | HeiLinCaoFa (2020) No. 10 | 25 February 2020 | ||
13 | Supply-side instruments | Heilongjiang | 2021 Heilongjiang Province Forest Supervision and “One Map” Annual Update Work Plan for Forest Resource Management | HeiLinCaoFa (2021) No. 25 | 22 April 2021 |
Heilongjiang | Work Plan for Satellite Remote Sensing Monitoring of Forestry and Grassland Resources | HeiLinCaoFa (2022) No. 08 | 12 April 2022 |
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Topic ID | Category | Region | Policy Document Title | Document Issuance Number | Release Date |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Supply-side instruments | Jilin | Jilin Province Digital Agriculture Development “14th Five-Year Plan” (2021–2025) | JNongShiFa (2021) No. 9 | 13 May 2021 |
Jilin | Implementation Opinions of the General Office of Jilin Provincial People’s Government on Smart Agriculture Development | JZhengBanFa (2022) No. 34 | 8 October 2022 | ||
… | … | … | … | … | … |
13 | Supply-side instruments | Heilongjiang | 2021 Heilongjiang Province Forest Supervision and “One Map” Annual Update Work Plan for Forest Resource Management | HeiLinCaoFa (2021) No. 25 | 22 April 2021 |
Heilongjiang | Work Plan for Satellite Remote Sensing Monitoring of Forestry and Grassland Resources | HeiLinCaoFa (2022) No. 08 | 12 April 2022 |
First-Level Variable | Second-Level ID | English Name | Description |
---|---|---|---|
X1 Policy Nature | X1.1 | Predictive | Whether the policy reflects predictiveness |
X1.2 | Regulatory | Whether the policy reflects regulatory content | |
X1.3 | Descriptive | Whether the policy provides descriptive guidance | |
X1.4 | Diagnostic/Advisory | Whether the policy includes diagnostic assessments or offers actionable recommendations based on prior evaluations | |
X2 Policy Timeliness | X2.1 | Long-term | Policy duration or target period is ≥5 years |
X2.2 | Medium-term | Policy duration or target period is between 3 and 5 years | |
X2.3 | Short-term | Policy duration or target period is between 1 and 3 years | |
X2.4 | Immediate/Phase | Within 1 year or a one-off work plan | |
X3 Policy Level | X3.1 | National level | Whether the policy is issued by a national agency |
X3.2 | Local level | Whether the policy is issued by a local agency | |
X4 Policy Evaluation | X4.1 | Clear objectives | Whether the policy objectives are clearly stated |
X4.2 | Substantial measures | Whether the policy provides substantial measures | |
X4.3 | Reasonable planning | Whether the policy plan is reasonable | |
X4.4 | Logical Coherence | A complete logical chain connecting objectives, measures, and evaluation | |
X5 Policy domain | X5.1 | Digital Infra and Cybersecurity | Topic 2/9/13 |
X5.2 | Ecological Protection and Restoration | Topic 4/8 | |
X5.3 | Rural-Industry and Livelihood | Topic 3/11 | |
X5.4 | Disaster and Risk Control | Topic 8 | |
X6 Policy safeguards | X6.1 | Legal/Normative | Whether the policy cites laws, standards, or enforcement clauses |
X6.2 | Funding and Talent | Special funds, talent programs, and subsidies | |
X6.3 | Technical Support | Platforms, cloud services, AI tools | |
X6.4 | Supervision and KPI | Dynamic monitoring, performance evaluation, third-party assessments | |
X7 Policy priorities | X7.1 | Supply-side | Direct inputs: technology, R&D funding, infrastructure |
X7.2 | Demand-side | Incentivizing users/markets: subsidies, demonstration consumption, etc. | |
X7.3 | Environmental | Institutional arrangements, taxation, standard constraints | |
X7.4 | Mixed/Pilot | Combination of the three tool types or pilot initiatives | |
X8 Policy Targets | X8.1 | Enterprises/Market Actors | Forestry equipment providers, platform companies, etc. |
X8.2 | Public/Farmers | Forest farmers, communities, the general public | |
X8.3 | Governmental Bodies | Local forestry and grassland authorities | |
X8.4 | Multi-stakeholders | Public-private partnerships, associations, social organizations | |
X9 Policy Perspective | X9.1 | Macro Strategy | Top-level design, nationwide layout |
X9.2 | Micro-implementation | Operational guidelines, manuals, SOPs |
Topic ID | Topic Name | Sample Keywords | Policy Category | Type of Policy Instrument | Description |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Topic 1 | Forestry Technology and Germplasm Innovation | Equipment, new varieties, science outreach, R&D | Supply-side | Technical Support | Provides research platforms, innovation conversion, and biodiversity tech/equipment support |
Topic 2 | Smart Forestry and Information Infrastructure | Smart forestry, IT systems, cybersecurity, operation | Supply-side | Digital Infrastructure | Builds monitoring platforms, forest data systems, and IT protection layers |
Topic 3 | Digital Circulation and Livelihood Services | Cities, logistics, e-government, public services | Demand-side | Public Service Provision | Promotes e-gov access, broadband, rural e-commerce |
Topic 4 | Forest Ecosystem Protection and Restoration | Wetlands, rehabilitation, ecosystems, greening | Environmental | Environmental Regulation | Sets restoration targets and ecological norms |
Topic 5 | Intelligent Sensing and Remote Monitoring Support | AI, GIS, remote sensing, surveying | Supply-side | Technical Support | Supports digital infrastructure for ecological sensing |
Topic 6 | Forest Supervision and Data Governance | Regulation, GIS map, supervision, compliance | Environmental | Regulation and Standards | Promotes legal enforcement and data-driven governance |
Topic 7 | Forestland Rights and Resource Allocation | Forestland, tenure, logging, ownership | Environmental | Institutional and Property Tools | Clarifies land rights, harvesting, and tenure procedures |
Topic 8 | Ecological Governance and Disaster Control | Desertification, sand control, wildlife | Environmental | Ecological Engineering | Implements large-scale restoration and disaster mitigation |
Topic 9 | Forest Cybersecurity and IT System Protection | Servers, threats, systems, detection | Supply-side | Infrastructure Support | Secures IT systems via hardware/software provision |
Topic 10 | Data Statistics and Information Processing | Statistics, imagery, permissions, systems | Supply-side | Infrastructure Support | Develops geospatial/statistical processing platforms |
Topic 11 | Rural Industry and Agricultural Empowerment | Agricultural products, cloud platform, rural economy | Demand-side | Public Service Provision | Supports farmers and value-added agriculture |
Topic 12 | Policy Coordination and Mobilization Mechanism | NDRC, fiscal bureau, implementation coordination | Environmental | Administrative Coordination Tools | Promotes policy delivery via inter-agency collaboration |
Topic 13 | Digital Economy and Infrastructure Development | Public data, e-commerce, computing power | Supply-side | Digital Infrastructure Support | Invests in 5G, computing, and national data hubs |
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Zhang, Y.; Ren, Y.; Liu, J.; Cao, Y. Decoding China’s Smart Forestry Policies: A Multi-Level Evaluation via LDA and PMC-TE Index. Forests 2025, 16, 1297. https://doi.org/10.3390/f16081297
Zhang Y, Ren Y, Liu J, Cao Y. Decoding China’s Smart Forestry Policies: A Multi-Level Evaluation via LDA and PMC-TE Index. Forests. 2025; 16(8):1297. https://doi.org/10.3390/f16081297
Chicago/Turabian StyleZhang, Yafang, Yue Ren, Jiaqi Liu, and Yukun Cao. 2025. "Decoding China’s Smart Forestry Policies: A Multi-Level Evaluation via LDA and PMC-TE Index" Forests 16, no. 8: 1297. https://doi.org/10.3390/f16081297
APA StyleZhang, Y., Ren, Y., Liu, J., & Cao, Y. (2025). Decoding China’s Smart Forestry Policies: A Multi-Level Evaluation via LDA and PMC-TE Index. Forests, 16(8), 1297. https://doi.org/10.3390/f16081297