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Article

Global Warming Regulates the Contraction and Expansion of the Adaptive Distribution of Cupressus funebris Forests in China

by
Huayong Zhang
1,2,*,
Shijia Li
1,
Xiande Ji
3,
Zhongyu Wang
1 and
Zhao Liu
2
1
Research Center for Engineering Ecology and Nonlinear Science, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
2
Theoretical Ecology and Engineering Ecology Research Group, School of Life Sciences, Shandong University, Qingdao 250100, China
3
Energy Conversion Group, Energy and Sustainability Research Institute Groningen, Faculty of Science and Engineering, University of Groningen, Nijenborgh 6, 9747AG Groningen, The Netherlands
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Forests 2025, 16(5), 778; https://doi.org/10.3390/f16050778
Submission received: 14 March 2025 / Revised: 27 April 2025 / Accepted: 30 April 2025 / Published: 5 May 2025
(This article belongs to the Section Forest Ecology and Management)
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Abstract

:
Cupressus funebris forests grow relatively fast and have a strong natural regeneration ability, showing great potential in carbon sequestration. Global warming has already had a significant impact on its distribution pattern. This study used the Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt) and the distribution data of Cupressus funebris communities to explore the contraction and expansion of the adaptive distribution of Cupressus funebris. The research results are as follows: The contemporary adaptive distribution area of Cupressus funebris is mainly located in the southern region of China, and the area of the adaptive distribution accounts for approximately 7.15% of the total land area. The main driving variables affecting the distribution of Cupressus funebris are annual precipitation, the minimum temperature of the coldest month, isothermality, temperature seasonality, carbonate content, and altitude. Among them, climate plays a dominant role in the distribution of this community. Under different carbon emission scenarios in the future, the adaptive distribution areas show an expansion trend, but most of the highly adaptive areas are shrinking and the changes are relatively significant. In the high emission pathway, the distribution area continues to expand in the north while gradually contracting in the southern regions. The community distribution shows a trend of migrating to higher latitudes and altitudes in northern regions, and there are significant non-linear characteristics in altitude migration under the scenario of intensified carbon emissions. This study provides theoretical guidance for the protection and management of Cupressus funebris forests and helps to improve the carbon sequestration capacity of the communities in the context of carbon neutrality.

1. Introduction

Forests, as the core of terrestrial ecosystems, account for 40% of the carbon pool in terrestrial ecosystems, and play an irreplaceable role in mitigating climate change and achieving the goal of carbon neutrality [1,2,3,4]. Global warming has a significant impact on the distribution patterns of forest vegetation [5,6]. For example, some temperate tree species are expanding their ranges northward, while some others are shifting their optimal habitats to higher altitudes [7,8]. Studying the adaptive distribution of tree species and optimizing forest carbon sequestration management strategies have become urgent needs in response to climate change.
Cupressus funebris Endl., a kind of arbor, belongs to the genus Cupressus in the Cupressaceae family. It is a tree species with a relatively fast growth rate. It has attracted much attention to its remarkable potential in carbon sequestration. Because it is drought-tolerant, able to grow on infertile land, and has strong adaptability, it can efficiently sequester carbon in a variety of environments [9,10]. Therefore, exploring the changes in the adaptive distribution of Cupressus funebris under climate change provides important support for achieving the goal of carbon neutrality.
Additionally, the carbon storage of Cupressus funebris will increase as the tree ages. The biomass and carbon content rate of its various organs show a stable carbon sequestration ability at different growth stages [11]. The calculation of carbon stocks and the analysis of carbon sequestration potential of human-promoted Cupressus funebris arbor forests show that Cupressus funebris forests occupy an important position in the carbon cycle of the ecosystem [12,13]. Therefore, exploring the adaptive distribution of Cupressus funebris forests driven by global warming is helpful for evaluating the carbon sequestration potential in different regions. Currently, it is mainly distributed in the southern regions of China. Scholars mainly use the data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and maximum entropy or ensemble models to predict the distribution of Cupressus funebris [14,15], while there is relatively little research on its communities. Therefore, research on predicting the distribution of Cupressus funebris driven by global warming from the large-scale perspective of communities can provide a theoretical basis for the protection of Cupressus funebris forests and the achievement of the national carbon neutrality goal.
Species distribution models are important tools in ecological research. The Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt) has been widely used to predict species distribution [16]. Based on statistical principles, it accurately predicts the potential distribution of species by analyzing the distribution data and environmental data of species [17,18]. In recent years, it has successfully predicted the distributions of species, such as Pinus massoniana [19], Platycladus orientalis [20], and Cinnamomum Camphora [21], under future climate change. This model provides an excellent approach to estimate the adaptive distribution of Cupressus funebris communities under future climate change.
This paper uses the distribution data of Cupressus funebris in China’s vegetation as well as climate, soil, and terrain data, and adopts the Maximum Entropy Model to study the adaptive distribution of Cupressus funebris forests. The research objectives of this paper are as follows: (1) The adaptive distribution of Cupressus funebris forests under current climate conditions and the main driving variables affecting the distribution of Cupressus funebris. (2) The contraction and expansion of the adaptive distribution of Cupressus funebris under future climate scenarios. (3) Centroid migration and altitude changes. This paper aims to provide a scientific basis for the distribution of Cupressus funebris forests and enhance forest management and conservation.

2. Data Integration and Methods

2.1. Data Screening and Processing

The basic map boundary data of China used in this study were obtained from the Data Center for Resources and Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences (https://www.resdc.cn, accessed on 20 April 2024). The distribution data of Cupressus funebris were sourced from the “Vegetation Atlas of China” (1:1,000,000). Through the spatial alignment, vector digitization, and rasterization processing in ArcGIS 10.8 software, 4683 distribution sample points of Cupressus funebris with a resolution of 1 km were generated. In order to ensure that each research unit contains only one point data and avoid the influence of duplicate points on the research results, the ArcGIS buffer analysis method was used, with a buffer radius set at 5 km. Finally, 397 sample points were screened and retained, and the longitude and latitude coordinate data of the sample points were extracted and exported in CSV format for model operation (Figure 1).
In this study, 38 environmental variables were selected, including 19 climate data, 16 soil data, and 3 terrain data. Climate data and elevation data were sourced from the WorldClim website (https://www.worldclim.org, accessed on 20 April 2024), with a data resolution of 2.5’ (approximately 5 km). The aspect and slope data were obtained from elevation data by using the surface analysis tool in ArcGIS. The soil data were obtained from HWSD (https://www.fao.org, accessed on 20 April 2024), with a resolution of 1 km. The slope and aspect were extracted based on the elevation data using the surface analysis tool in ArcGIS 10.8.
The future climate data were sourced from the BCC-CSM2-MR model, which is a global climate model independently developed by the National (Beijing) Climate Center. The temperature and precipitation in China simulated by this model are relatively consistent, and it has been widely used in the research on species distribution in China [22]. Four emission scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, SSP585) simulated by the BCC-CSM2-MR model were selected, representing the gradual increase in greenhouse gas carbon dioxide emissions [23]. Three time periods, namely 2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100, were selected among these scenarios, with a resolution of 5 km.
ArcGIS software was utilized to process all environmental variables so that they could be put into the model for operation. The mask extraction was used to cut out the scope of China, and the resampling function was adopted to unify the resolution of the data to 5 km, which matched the resolution of the species point data to facilitate subsequent modeling.

2.2. Maximum Entropy Model

In this study, the Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt) was used to calculate the distribution of Cupressus funebris forests. Firstly, the data of 397 community distribution points and environmental variables were imported into MaxEnt. Then, 75% of the distribution data were randomly selected for model building, and 25% of the data were used for model validation [24,25,26,27]; pseudo-absence data were randomly selected from within the study area. The model was run repeatedly 10 times [28,29,30]. For the prediction of future scenarios, it is assumed that the topography and soil in the future will not change significantly compared to the current situation. Given the relative stability of soil and topographic factors, it is reasonable to assume that these factors will remain unchanged under future climate conditions [31].
The accuracy of the model was measured by two indicators, namely the area under the curve (AUC) value under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) and the true skill statistic (TSS). The value range of the AUC is between 0 and 1, while the value range of the TSS is between −1 and 1. The closer the values are to 1, the better the performance of the model. Generally speaking, when the AUC value is ≥0.9 and the TSS value is >0.85, it can be considered that the simulation accuracy is extremely high [32,33,34,35].

2.3. Identification of Driving Variables and Calculation of Ranges

Due to the correlations among different environmental variables, it is necessary to screen the variables to ensure the precision and accuracy of the model. First, the 38 environmental variables were imported into the MaxEnt model, and those with a contribution rate of 0 were removed [36]. Subsequently, we used ENMTools 1.1.2 software to conduct a correlation analysis on environmental variables. When the absolute value of the correlation coefficient between two environmental variables was greater than 0.8, the environmental variable with a lower contribution rate was eliminated [37]. Through this screening method, ten environmental variables were finally selected for model-building, including four climate variables, one terrain variable, and five soil variables.
The 10 screened environmental variables and the community distribution data were input into the Maximum Entropy Model. The jack-knife method was used to obtain the contribution rates and permutation importance of the environmental variables under different carbon emission scenarios. Based on this, the relative importance of each variable was evaluated, and the top six variables in terms of contribution rate and permutation importance were selected as the main driving variables.
The regularized training gain with only this variable included is a commonly used method for calculating the response curve. The response curves of the main driving variables were obtained from the simulation results. When the survival probability was greater than 0.5, the corresponding variable interval was regarded as the most favorable range of this variable for the survival of community species.

2.4. Calculation of the Adaptive Distribution

The result files of the MaxEnt model were imported into ArcGIS software. Combining with the reclassification tool in the spatial analysis tool, we divided the adaptive distribution into four grades according to the survival suitability: not adaptive distribution (0–0.06), minimally adaptive distribution (0.06–0.22), moderately adaptive distribution (0.22–0.43), and highly adaptive distribution (0.43–1.0), and visualized them. The grid calculator in ArcGIS was used to calculate the number of grids of each type and the areas of adaptive distribution at different grades under different environmental conditions.
The results of the current and future adaptive distribution of the community were imported into ArcGIS. Based on the comparison of the ranges of the total adaptive distribution areas between the current and future periods, the changes were classified into three categories: expansion areas, contraction areas, and stable areas. By using the overlay analysis method, the adaptive distributions between the current and different future periods were compared, and the change trends of each future period compared with the current situation were calculated [38]. Thus, the contraction and expansion situations of the adaptive distribution of Cupressus funebris were obtained.

2.5. Calculation of Centroid Migration and Altitude Changes

To evaluate the migration status of the potential suitable areas for Cupressus funebris, we calculated the centroids of the suitable habitats for Cupressus funebris under different carbon emission scenarios using the software toolkit of ArcGIS [39,40]. The merge tool and data management tool were employed to convert the centroid point data into line features, forming the centroid migration trajectory. The online distance calculator (https://www.omnicalculator.com, accessed on 6 January 2025) was used to calculate the migration distance of the centroid based on its longitude and latitude coordinates. The extraction analysis in the spatial analysis tool was used to obtain the altitude of each grid in the adaptive distribution area. After exporting the data, the average altitude was calculated. The change trends of the community in the horizontal and vertical directions were studied through the centroid movement trajectory and altitude changes [41].

3. Results

3.1. Adaptive Distribution and Driving Variables

At present, Cupressus funebris predominantly grows in Southern China, with adaptive areas covering approximately 7.15% of the country’s total land area (Figure 2). The highly adaptive areas are mainly concentrated in Eastern Sichuan Province and Chongqing Municipality, accounting for about 0.98% of China’s total area. The moderately adaptive areas are distributed in four provinces: Sichuan, Chongqing, Guizhou, and Hunan, accounting for about 2.04% of China’s total area. The minimally adaptive areas have a wider distribution range, accounting for about 4.14% of China’s total area.
Climate is the dominant variable, with a total contribution rate of 67.3%. The contribution rate of the mean annual precipitation (Bio12) is 40.6%, followed by minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6, 14.4%), isothermality (Bio3, 9.9%), and temperature seasonality (Bio4, 2.4%). Among them, precipitation, in total, accounting for 40.6%, exhibits more contributions affecting the distribution of Cupressus funebris compared to temperature (26.7%). In addition, the contribution rate of soil is 13.2%, all from soil carbonates, and the contribution rate of terrain is 11.1%, all from altitude (Table 1).
Among the six main driving variables influencing the community distribution, the suitable ranges of environmental variables for the growth of Cupressus funebris are as follows: the annual precipitation (Bio12) should be ≤1279 mm; the suitable range of the minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6) is 0.99–3.53 °C, the suitable range of isothermality (Bio3) is 15–27.6; the suitable range of the temperature seasonality index (Bio4) is 690–841; Cupressus funebris can survive when the soil carbonate content (T_caco3) ≥ 4.91%; and it is most suitable for Cupressus funebris to survive when the altitude (Elev) ≥ 200 m (Figure 3).

3.2. Contraction and Expansion of the Adaptive Distribution

Global warming has driven the contraction and expansion of the adaptive distribution of Cupressus funebris. Under four different carbon emission scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, SSP585), the adaptive distribution areas of Cupressus funebris have changed to varying degrees. The adaptive distribution is still mainly concentrated in Southern China. As carbon emissions increase, the adaptive distribution areas in the north continue to expand. Compared with the current situation, the distribution shows a northward expansion and a southern contraction, with the overall area showing an expanding trend.
The expansion areas are located to the northeast of the current distribution areas. Under the SSP126 low-carbon emission scenario, the distribution is relatively stable. As carbon emissions increase, the area of the expansion areas continues to grow, gradually crossing mountain ranges, such as the Qinling Mountains and the Dabie Mountains. The distribution in northern provinces, such as Shandong, Hebei, and Beijing, increases, and the expansion areas reach their maximum in the SSP370 scenario by 2090. The increase in carbon emissions leads to a continuous increase in the area of the contraction areas located at the junction of Sichuan and Guizhou, around the Nanling Mountains, and in the coastal areas of Zhejiang. The stable areas are mainly in the four provinces of Sichuan, Chongqing, Guizhou, and Hunan, and the stable areas continue to shrink as carbon emissions intensify (Figure 4).
The areas of highly, moderately, and minimally adaptive areas for Cupressus funebris have changed significantly (Figure 5). In the 2050s, as carbon emissions increase, the total area of adaptive areas first increases and then decreases, with the growth rate ranging from 6.66% to 12.99%. The area of highly adaptive areas shrinks by 11.40%–86.01% compared with the current situation. The reduction in the area of highly adaptive areas is the most significant under the SSP245 scenario. In the 2070s, the total area of adaptive areas under different scenarios changes slightly. The highly adaptive areas shrink by 29.50%–90.75% compared with the current situation. The shrinkage of highly adaptive areas is relatively small under the SSP126 scenario, and the area of highly adaptive areas shrinks sharply as carbon emissions increase. In the 2090s, the total area of adaptive areas increases by 1.89%–72.39%. Under the SSP370 scenario, both the total adaptive areas and highly adaptive areas reach their maximum, increasing by 72.39% and 3.18%, respectively, compared with the current situation, and the areas of highly adaptive areas and total adaptive areas reach their peaks. However, under the SSP245 scenario, the highly adaptive areas shrink most severely, with an area reduction of 95.71% (Figure 6).
The future adaptive distribution of Cupressus funebris is closely related to climate change. Climate remains the dominant variable influencing the distribution of Cupressus funebris, with a cumulative contribution rate of approximately 67%. The annual precipitation (Bio12) is an important climate variable affecting its distribution, with a contribution rate ranging from 38.8% to 40.9%, still being the environmental variable with the highest contribution rate.

3.3. Centroid Migration and Altitude Change

Global warming has caused centroid migration and altitude change in Cupressus funebris forests. Currently, the distribution centroid of Cupressus funebris is located in Chongqing City. Under different carbon emission scenarios, the centroid shows a trend of migrating towards the northeast region. Under the SSP126 scenario, the centroid moves into the territory of Enshi City, Hubei Province, and the moving distance gradually shortens. Under the SSP245 scenario, in the 2050s, the centroid moves 180.9 km to Enshi City, Hubei Province; in the 2070s, it moves 59.3 km to the border between Chongqing and Hubei; in the 2090s, it moves 167.58 km to Shiyan City, Hubei Province. The moving distance first shortens and then increases, with relatively significant changes. Under the SSP370 scenario, the centroid gradually moves towards the northeast. In the 2050s, the centroid moves 84.24 km to Enshi City, Hubei Province; in the 2070s, it moves 194.6 km to Shiyan City, Hubei Province. However, in the 2090s, it moves 96.4 km to the northwest and reaches Ankang City, Shaanxi Province. Under the SSP585 scenario, in the 2050s, the centroid moves 154.53 km to the border between Chongqing and Hunan; in the 2070s, it moves 202.63 km to Shiyan City, Hubei Province; in the 2090s, the centroid remains within Shiyan City, with a relatively small moving distance. As time passes, the adaptive distribution center of Cupressus funebris migrates towards the northeast, and under the low-emission scenarios, the moving distance of the centroid is relatively small (Figure 7a).
Under different carbon emission scenarios, the altitude displays an overall upward tendency. Currently, the average altitude of Cupressus funebris is 609.4 m. Under the low-carbon emission SSP126 scenario, the altitude of Cupressus funebris continues to ascend to 693.16 m. However, under the SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 scenarios, the altitude initially ascends and subsequently descends. In the 2050s, the altitude continues to ascend in tandem with the increase in carbon emissions. It reaches the highest point in the 2070s, and then the magnitude of altitude decline becomes more pronounced as carbon emissions intensify (Figure 7b).

4. Discussion

The MaxEnt model has been widely used in the distribution simulation of various species and achieved remarkable results. It is an important tool for studying species distribution. In this study, the AUC and TSS values were chosen to measure the accuracy of the model. Generally, when the AUC is greater than 0.9 and the TSS is greater than 0.85, the simulation effect is considered to be highly accurate. The AUC value of the Maximum Entropy Model is greater than 0.97, and the TSS value is greater than 0.89. Therefore, it can be believed that the Maximum Entropy Model has extremely high accuracy in predicting the adaptive distribution of Cupressus funebris forests [42,43].
Climate change has led to significant changes in the adaptive distribution ranges of species [44,45,46]. Among forest vegetation, climate factors are particularly important [47,48,49]. This study finds the dominant role of climate in the distribution of Cupressus funebris (with a total contribution rate of 67.3%). Among them, the annual precipitation (with a contribution rate of 40.6%) and temperature-related variables (minimum temperature of the coldest month, isothermality, temperature seasonality) jointly influence the adaptive distribution of Cupressus funebris forests. This study emphasizes that the driving effect of annual precipitation is significantly higher than that of temperature-based variables. Annual precipitation affects the germination of Cupressus funebris seeds, the establishment of seedlings, and the growth of plants. Within the appropriate range of precipitation, sufficient moisture can promote physiological processes, such as photosynthesis of Cupressus funebris, which is beneficial to its growth and expansion. Excessive precipitation may lead to waterlogging in the soil and oxygen deficiency in the roots of Cupressus funebris, while insufficient precipitation limits the water supply, especially during the seedling establishment period when Cupressus funebris has a great demand for water [50]. Research shows that the suitable range of annual precipitation is <1279 mm. Currently, the annual precipitation in the areas south of the Yangtze River reaches 800–1700 mm. Under global warming, precipitation fluctuations in this region are intensifying [51], which may cause the precipitation in some areas to exceed the limit range and thus, restrict the expansion of Cupressus funebris. Isothermality reflects the relative magnitude relationship between the diurnal temperature difference and the annual temperature difference. This characteristic has an important impact on the balance between the photosynthesis and respiration of Cupressus funebris, and then, affects its growth and material accumulation processes. Temperature seasonality, on the other hand, profoundly influences the physiological adaptation mechanism and ecological distribution pattern of Cupressus funebris by precisely regulating its growth rhythm and enhancing its stress resistance in different seasonal environments [52,53].
Soil and topography also have a certain influence on plant growth and distribution by affecting conditions, such as moisture, nutrients, temperature, and light [54,55,56]. In addition to climate, soil carbonate (with a contribution rate of 13.2%) and altitude (with a contribution rate of 11.1%) have important impacts on the distribution of Cupressus funebris. The suitable altitude range is above 200 m, and the average altitude of the current adaptive distribution is 609 m, which is basically consistent with the actual altitude distribution of Cupressus funebris.
Global warming has had a significant impact on the adaptive distribution of species, typically manifested as the contraction or expansion of species’ adaptive distribution [57,58,59]. This study found that Cupressus funebris shows an overall expansion trend and a northward migration under different future emission scenarios. Under the low-carbon emission scenario (SSP126), the expansion area of Cupressus funebris is relatively small. However, as carbon emissions increase, the expansion range of the adaptive distribution of Cupressus funebris increases significantly, especially in the northern regions (Shandong and Hebei). The area of adaptive distribution reaches its maximum in the SSP370 scenario in the 2090s. It is important to note that although the total area of adaptive distribution increases, the area of highly adaptive declines significantly, posing a potential risk to carbon sequestration capacity. The area of highly adaptive only increases by 3.18% in the SSP370 scenario in the 2090s, and the shrinkage is most severe under the SSP245 scenario. The changes in adaptive distribution pose a potential risk to carbon sequestration capacity. Some studies have shown that within a certain range, an increase in CO2 concentration can improve the carbon sequestration capacity of plants [60]. However, it also leads to a significant shrinkage of highly adaptive distribution. The biomass and carbon storage of Cupressus funebris forests are often higher in highly adaptive distribution [61,62,63]. Therefore, the shrinkage of highly adaptive distribution directly leads to a decline in carbon sequestration capacity. In addition, these changes may indirectly affect carbon sequestration efficiency by altering the stability and biodiversity of ecosystems [64].
Numerous studies have shown that climate warming usually drives most tree species to migrate to higher latitudes and altitudes in northern regions in search of suitable temperature conditions [64,65,66]. This study also confirms that the adaptive distribution of Cupressus funebris shows an overall trend of migrating to higher altitudes. However, different from the traditional view of a linear and continuous increase in altitude, this study found that the altitude migration of Cupressus funebris has significant non-linear characteristics: only under the SSP126 scenario does the altitude show a gradual upward trend, while under the SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 scenarios, the altitude first rises and then falls, reaching the highest in the 2070s. This complex phenomenon may be caused by the differences in temperature and precipitation changes under different carbon emission scenarios. Under the SSP126 scenario, the temperature and precipitation are relatively stable. As carbon emissions increase, the changes in temperature and precipitation become more drastic. In the initial stage, the climate change makes the environment in high-altitude areas more suitable for the growth of Cupressus funebris. However, as time passes, the frequency of extreme climate events increases, which worsens the water conditions in high-altitude areas. As a result, Cupressus funebris has to migrate to lower-altitude areas to seek more stable water conditions [7,67]. Therefore, the protection and restoration work of Cupressus funebris forests should be carried out in a targeted manner, fully considering the changes in altitude. We should identify the potential suitable distribution areas of Cupressus funebris forests in northern regions and high-altitude areas, plan protection measures in advance, and optimize the community structure to promote the expansion of Cupressus funebris forests and enhance their carbon sequestration capacity. During the stage of altitude decline, focus should be on the contraction areas. We should establish protection buffer zones to reduce human activity interference to protect the existing Cupressus funebris forests and strengthen the monitoring and prevention of diseases and pests. Additionally, we should ensure the long-term stability and sustainable development of Cupressus funebris forests through scientific planning and effective management.

5. Conclusions

Cupressus funebris has strong natural regeneration ability and high carbon sequestration capacity. However, its adaptive distribution is affected by global warming. This paper uses climate, soil, and topography data to investigate the current and future adaptive distribution and change trends of Cupressus funebris communities. The results are as follows: (1) The current adaptive distribution of Cupressus funebris is mainly located in Southern China, concentrated in the four provinces of Sichuan, Chongqing, Guizhou, and Hunan. The adaptive distribution accounts for about 7.15% of China’s total land area. The main driving variables affecting the distribution of this community are annual precipitation, minimum temperature of the coldest month, isothermality, seasonal temperature variation, soil carbonate content, and altitude. Among them, climate plays a dominant role, with a total contribution rate of 67.3%. (2) Global warming significantly influences the distribution of Cupressus funebris in future scenarios. The adaptive distribution shows an expanding trend and migrates northward, with the expansion area ranging from 1.89% to 72.39%. The highly adaptive distribution shrinks significantly. In the high emission pathway, both the expansion areas in the northern regions and the contraction areas in the southern part of the current adaptive distribution continue to expand, reaching the maximum under the SSP370 scenario. Climate remains the dominant variable affecting the distribution of Cupressus funebris, with a cumulative contribution rate of up to 67%. (3) Under different carbon emission scenarios, the distribution centroid of Cupressus funebris shows a northward migration trend, and the migration is relatively slow under the low-carbon scenario. The average altitude gradually rises under the low-carbon scenario, while under the high-carbon emission scenario, the altitude rises to the highest in the 2070s and then declines. The results of this study provide a scientific basis for the protection and restoration management of Cupressus funebris forests and help to enhance the carbon sequestration capacity of the community in the context of carbon neutrality.

Author Contributions

Conceptualization, H.Z.; methodology, H.Z.; software, X.J.; validation, H.Z., X.J. and Z.W.; formal analysis, S.L.; investigation, H.Z. and S.L.; resources, H.Z.; data curation, S.L.; writing—original draft preparation, H.Z. and S.L.; writing—review and editing, H.Z., S.L., X.J., Z.W. and Z.L.; visualization, S.L.; supervision, H.Z.; project administration, H.Z. and Z.L.; funding acquisition, H.Z. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

Funding

This research was funded by the National Water Pollution Control and Treatment Science and Technology Major Project (2017ZX07101) and the Discipline Construction Program of Huayong Zhang, Distinguished Professor of Shandong University, School of Life Sciences (61200082363001).

Data Availability Statement

All links to input data are reported in the manuscript and all output data are available upon request to the authors.

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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Forests 16 00778 g001
Figure 1. The distribution of Cupressus funebris forests in China.
Figure 1. The distribution of Cupressus funebris forests in China.
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Figure 2. The adaptive distribution of Cupressus funebris forests under the current climate conditions.
Figure 2. The adaptive distribution of Cupressus funebris forests under the current climate conditions.
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Figure 3. Response curves of driving variables.
Figure 3. Response curves of driving variables.
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Figure 4. Contraction and expansion of the adaptive distribution of Cupressus funebris.
Figure 4. Contraction and expansion of the adaptive distribution of Cupressus funebris.
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Figure 5. Adaptive distribution of Cupressus funebris under future climate scenarios.
Figure 5. Adaptive distribution of Cupressus funebris under future climate scenarios.
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Figure 6. The adaptive distribution areas of Cupressus funebris under different climate scenarios.
Figure 6. The adaptive distribution areas of Cupressus funebris under different climate scenarios.
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Figure 7. (a) Centroid migration. (b) Altitude change.
Figure 7. (a) Centroid migration. (b) Altitude change.
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Table 1. Contribution rates and permutation importances of environmental variables.
Table 1. Contribution rates and permutation importances of environmental variables.
VariableEnvironment VariableUnitPercent ContributionPermutation Importance
Bio12Annual precipitationmm40.62.7
Bio6Min temperature of coldest month°C14.481.3
T_caco3Carbonate content%13.22.0
ElevAltitudem11.11.9
Bio3Isothermality-9.96.1
T_gravelPercentage of crushed stone by volume%6.00.2
Bio4Temperature seasonality-2.44.6
T_cec_clayCation exchange capacity of cohesive layer soilcmol/kg1.50.4
T_bsBasic saturation%0.60.4
T_tebExchangeable basecmol/kg0.20.5
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Zhang, H.; Li, S.; Ji, X.; Wang, Z.; Liu, Z. Global Warming Regulates the Contraction and Expansion of the Adaptive Distribution of Cupressus funebris Forests in China. Forests 2025, 16, 778. https://doi.org/10.3390/f16050778

AMA Style

Zhang H, Li S, Ji X, Wang Z, Liu Z. Global Warming Regulates the Contraction and Expansion of the Adaptive Distribution of Cupressus funebris Forests in China. Forests. 2025; 16(5):778. https://doi.org/10.3390/f16050778

Chicago/Turabian Style

Zhang, Huayong, Shijia Li, Xiande Ji, Zhongyu Wang, and Zhao Liu. 2025. "Global Warming Regulates the Contraction and Expansion of the Adaptive Distribution of Cupressus funebris Forests in China" Forests 16, no. 5: 778. https://doi.org/10.3390/f16050778

APA Style

Zhang, H., Li, S., Ji, X., Wang, Z., & Liu, Z. (2025). Global Warming Regulates the Contraction and Expansion of the Adaptive Distribution of Cupressus funebris Forests in China. Forests, 16(5), 778. https://doi.org/10.3390/f16050778

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