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Volume 16
Issue 12
10.3390/f16121833
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This is an early access version, the complete PDF, HTML, and XML versions will be available soon.
Article

Effect of Temperature on Germination and Distribution of Pinus ayacahuite Ehrenb. ex Schltdl. Under Climate Change Scenarios in Mexico

by
Luis V. Pedrero-López
1,
Salvador Sampayo-Maldonado
1,*,
Mixtli Y. Nabor-Vazquez
1,
María E. Sánchez-Coronado
2,
Alma Orozco-Segovia
2,
Patricia Dávila Aranda
3,
Daniel Cabrera-Santos
1,
Isela Rodríguez-Arévalo
3,
Diana C. Acosta-Rojas
4 and
Cesar M. Flores-Ortíz
1,*
1
Plant Physiology Laboratory, Biology Technology and Prototypes Unit (UBIPRO,) FES Iztacala, National Autonomous University of Mexico(UNAM), Tlalnepantla 54090, Mexico
2
Instituto de Ecología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Mexico, Av. Universidad 3000, Coyoacán, Ciudad de Mexico 04510, Mexico
3
Natural Resources Laboratory, Biology Technology and Prototypes Unit (UBIPRO), FES Iztacala, National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), Tlalnepantla 54090, Mexico
4
Millennium Seed Bank, Royal Botanic Gardens Kew, Wakehurst Place, Ardingly RH17 6TJ, UK
*
Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Forests 2025, 16(12), 1833; https://doi.org/10.3390/f16121833
Submission received: 27 October 2025 / Revised: 27 November 2025 / Accepted: 3 December 2025 / Published: 8 December 2025
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate and Land-Use Change Effects on the Biogeography of Woody Plant Species and Biodiversity Conservation)
Versions Notes

Abstract

Pinus ayacahuite is an important species for reforestation in Mexico, as it is a pioneer species in open areas. Its regeneration could be threatened by rising temperatures. The effect of a temperature gradient on germination was analyzed, and potential distribution projections of climate change scenarios were modeled at various time scales. Seeds were collected in Huayacocotla, Veracruz; these were germinated under nine constant temperatures (5–45 °C). Germination parameters, cardinal temperatures, and thermal time were estimated using a Gaussian model. Germination occurred between 10 and 40 °C, with optimal, base, and ceiling temperatures of 27 °C, 10 °C, and 42 °C, respectively, and a thermal time (Tt50) of 118.5 °C d−1. Based on climate change projections (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5), NASA’s GISS-E2-1-G model predicts temperature increases from 1.1 to 2.3 °C by 2050 and from 1.7 to 3.6 °C by 2090, which would accelerate germination by 12.9–25 days. However, the species’ potential distribution is projected to decline by 15%–22%, primarily in southern states such as Chiapas, Oaxaca, and Puebla, although it could shift to new suitable areas in Tamaulipas and Nuevo León. These results suggest that while higher temperatures may favor earlier germination, water availability will remain the main limiting factor for successful establishment. Integrating physiological parameters into distribution models offers a stronger foundation for seed storage, conservation, and reforestation strategies in the face of changing climatic conditions.
Keywords: distribution models; global warming; seed germination; thermal niche distribution models; global warming; seed germination; thermal niche

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MDPI and ACS Style

Pedrero-López, L.V.; Sampayo-Maldonado, S.; Nabor-Vazquez, M.Y.; Sánchez-Coronado, M.E.; Orozco-Segovia, A.; Dávila Aranda, P.; Cabrera-Santos, D.; Rodríguez-Arévalo, I.; Acosta-Rojas, D.C.; Flores-Ortíz, C.M. Effect of Temperature on Germination and Distribution of Pinus ayacahuite Ehrenb. ex Schltdl. Under Climate Change Scenarios in Mexico. Forests 2025, 16, 1833. https://doi.org/10.3390/f16121833

AMA Style

Pedrero-López LV, Sampayo-Maldonado S, Nabor-Vazquez MY, Sánchez-Coronado ME, Orozco-Segovia A, Dávila Aranda P, Cabrera-Santos D, Rodríguez-Arévalo I, Acosta-Rojas DC, Flores-Ortíz CM. Effect of Temperature on Germination and Distribution of Pinus ayacahuite Ehrenb. ex Schltdl. Under Climate Change Scenarios in Mexico. Forests. 2025; 16(12):1833. https://doi.org/10.3390/f16121833

Chicago/Turabian Style

Pedrero-López, Luis V., Salvador Sampayo-Maldonado, Mixtli Y. Nabor-Vazquez, María E. Sánchez-Coronado, Alma Orozco-Segovia, Patricia Dávila Aranda, Daniel Cabrera-Santos, Isela Rodríguez-Arévalo, Diana C. Acosta-Rojas, and Cesar M. Flores-Ortíz. 2025. "Effect of Temperature on Germination and Distribution of Pinus ayacahuite Ehrenb. ex Schltdl. Under Climate Change Scenarios in Mexico" Forests 16, no. 12: 1833. https://doi.org/10.3390/f16121833

APA Style

Pedrero-López, L. V., Sampayo-Maldonado, S., Nabor-Vazquez, M. Y., Sánchez-Coronado, M. E., Orozco-Segovia, A., Dávila Aranda, P., Cabrera-Santos, D., Rodríguez-Arévalo, I., Acosta-Rojas, D. C., & Flores-Ortíz, C. M. (2025). Effect of Temperature on Germination and Distribution of Pinus ayacahuite Ehrenb. ex Schltdl. Under Climate Change Scenarios in Mexico. Forests, 16(12), 1833. https://doi.org/10.3390/f16121833

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