1. Introduction
Climate change has become one of the most globally discussed environmental issues in recent years [
1,
2]. It is now indisputable that the climate is changing [
3,
4,
5] and will continue to do so in the future. But the extent and the spatial and temporal impacts of these changes on the environment have yet to be seen [
6]. In this context, the possibilities of further research and solutions to the adverse effects of these changes are debated worldwide. The ongoing global climate change poses a challenge for all sectors, forestry included [
7]. Forests are believed to play a crucial role in mitigating climate change [
8,
9,
10]. They are essential for global carbon sequestration and storage and are largely responsible for the consistency of the global carbon sink [
11]. The impacts of climate change will affect the conditions for the forestry sector [
9,
12]. The forestry sector can help mitigate climate change significantly by increasing carbon stocks in the forest soil, either via changed forestry management practices or the use of harvested timber [
13,
14,
15]. Kirilenko and Sedjo [
16] argue that climate change will affect all types of forests and forest management. Forests will face profound long-term changes, such as changes in species communities on a scale that is still difficult to predict [
17,
18,
19,
20,
21]. The issue of climate change is therefore taken seriously in the forestry sector. The Paris Agreement adopted by the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [
22] also acknowledged the role of forests in mitigating climate change. Scientists and multi-faceted research projects are trying to develop a range of readily available adaptation options [
6,
20,
21,
23]. The adaptation of forests to climate change involves forestry measures such as using different tree species and promoting mixed stands [
24]. However, the adaptive capacity of forests to overcome the adverse effects of climate change remains highly uncertain despite intensive research efforts [
25].
From the perspective of possible solutions to climate change, searching for new energy sources and optimising the existing ones are currently the priority themes in environmental protection. Limiting the use of fossil fuels and massively expanding the use of renewable energy sources (RES) in its individual Member States, the European Union (EU) is considered the world’s pioneer in the transition to cleaner energy [
26,
27], with renewable energy being one of the fundamental pillars of the European Union’s strategy for energy and climate protection until 2030 and beyond [
28]. Renewable energy sources have significant potential to contribute to economic, social, and environmental energy sustainability [
29]. The above stems primarily from the obligations of the EU Member States, which are declared in binding documents such as the European Green Deal [
30] and subsequent documents [
31,
32,
33,
34,
35]. The results of various studies show [
2,
29,
36] that renewable energy consumption is a significant factor in reducing carbon emissions.
The EU framework for climate and energy policies was adopted by the Conclusions of the European Council of October 2014 [
31]. The adopted goals in renewable sources and energy efficiency were subsequently increased in 2018 via the amendment of the Renewable Energy Directive [
32], which sets the target for the share of renewable resources in overall gross final energy consumption to 32% by 2030. The amendment of the Renewable Energy Directive of 2021 [
34] further increased the target for the share of renewable resources in overall gross final energy consumption by 2030 to 40%. The latest increase to 45% was carried out in 2022 under the so-called REPowerEU Plan [
37]. The need to increase the share of renewable energy sources is also included in the Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament entitled ‘A Clean Planet For All’ [
33]. The Czech Republic (CR) has set a target of a 22% share of renewable energy sources in gross final consumption [
38].
The Renewable Energy Directive 2009/28/EC (RED I) defines ‘gross final energy consumption’ as energy commodities supplied for energy purposes to industry, transport, households, services (including utilities), agriculture, forestry, and fishing, including electricity and heat consumption via the energy sector used for electricity and heat generation, and including electricity and heat losses during distribution and transmission.
In 2021, the share of gross final energy consumption from renewable sources at the EU level reached 21.8%. Compared to 2020, this was a decrease of 0.3 percentage points (p.p.) and the first recorded decrease ever. In the Czech Republic, the share of renewable sources in gross final energy consumption accounted for 17.7% in 2021. Compared to the preceding year, it represented an increase of 0.4 p.p. [
39].
One of the renewable sources of energy is biomass. Biomass is a competitive fuel that can be successfully used for energy production. With a share of more than 60%, biomass for energy production (bioenergy) is the primary source of renewable energy in the EU [
40]. The volume of biomass for energy production depends on the origin of the resource, its alternative use, and the limitation of its use [
41].
Forests are an important potential source of biomass. Forest tree biomass (dendromass) mainly comprises forest residues, which are divided into primary, secondary, and tertiary residues in the published literature [
42]. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) identified forest biomass as an essential source of renewable energy [
43]. Efficient use of resources such as forest biomass (e.g., logging residues) expands the overall availability of biomass for both industrial and energy purposes. One of the main products of forestry, wood, is a renewable and sustainable raw material that is currently widely used in all sectors of the national economy, including the energy sector [
44,
45,
46]. As Europe is moving towards a bioeconomy by reducing their dependence on fossil fuels, forest products are increasingly used to secure energy supplies [
10,
25]. Forest biomass for energy purposes is one of the most important sources of energy thanks to the raw material potential and the possibility of its renewal [
47]. Moiseyev et al. [
48] estimate that 24% of the European Union’s renewable energy goal was met through forests and the forest industry. Therefore, the consumption and production of wood biomass and other forms of renewable energy have been increasing significantly. One of the factors influencing the overall balance of forest biomass is the form and quality of wood mass that cannot be further mechanically processed [
49].
From a biophysical point of view, wood biomass resources are large enough to cover a substantial part of the world’s primary energy consumption in 2050. However, these resources have alternative uses, and their availability is limited, making them less competitive with other forms of energy [
50]. In order to solve some of the problems related to climate change and the search for alternative raw materials for energy use, the energy sector pays more and more attention to low-cost waste and biomass residues [
51,
52]. The focus is on improving the flow of waste in a circular economy and enabling better management [
53].
The article concentrates on the use of forest logging residues for energy purposes. A cheap and available raw material, forest residues can replace current fossil energy sources, thereby contributing to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and increasing energy security [
52,
53,
54,
55]. However, it has been argued that besides its positive impacts, logging forest residues could also have negative impacts on the carbon and nutrient balance and subsequently on climate change, as well as other bioenergy impacts depending on the forest management methods [
56,
57]. The problem of determining the potential of biomass for energy purposes has also been addressed by foreign authors in Switzerland, Sweden, Pakistan, Africa, and Nigeria [
58,
59,
60,
61,
62]. The topicality of this issue is underlined by the fact that since 2000 (44), the number of traceable publications on the subject has increased on Scopus up to 884 (2021) as reported by [
63]. The authors [
58,
60,
61,
62] agree that the fulfilment of the global identified potential of biomass is severely limited by regional conditions, state regulation, resource disposition (agroforestry/agriculture), and potential impacts on food security, the market regulation of selected sectors, climate targets, and national environmental interests. Among domestic authors, the issue was also addressed by [
28], who points to a significant decline in the potential of biomass from forest stands at the level of 60%–70% in the next decade, which is also confirmed by the results presented in this analytical study. Therefore, it is vital to analyse the consequences of the increased use of forest logging residues on the environment and the economy with respect to all processes in the supply chain and the regional perspective [
64,
65,
66]. Czech forestry produces approx. 2 million m
3 (approx. 0.77 million tons) of wood chips, 1.5 million tons of cellulose leach, and nearly 5 million tons of fuelwood for energy purposes [
38]. As stated in the document of the Ministry of Industry of the Czech Republic [
38], predicting the availability of forest biomass for energy purposes is currently extremely complex due to the ongoing bark beetle calamity. The article aims to analyse the base of forest raw material for energy use and predict the volumes of available forest biomass (primarily forest logging residues) in the Czech Republic with regard to the next possible occurrence of calamities caused by abiotic or biotic factors. The outputs of the article will include a quantified estimate of whether the Czech Republic can meet the goals in the utilisation of renewable energy sources set via the binding documents of the European Union.
2. Materials and Methods
The main method used in the paper is the method of modelling the overall overview of logging possibilities applied to the model data of forest stands and wood stocks in the Czech Republic. The goal of modelling the overall overview of logging possibilities in forests in the Czech Republic was to determine the theoretical outlook of ten-year logging possibilities in Czech forests for the period of 2021–2061. The outlook has been prepared for the entire Czech Republic using the following inputs:
The data obtained during the preparation of forest management plans (FMP) and forest management outlines (FMO) that are stored in the Data Warehouse of the Information and Data Centre of the Institute for Forest Management Brandýs nad Labem Czech Republic (Institute for FM CR): available current FMP and FMO data (2012–2021).
Other underlying data related to the restrictions on the felling volumes (categorisation of forests, NATURA 2000, etc.).
For the study, forests were divided into economically usable forests and forests with economic restrictions. The criteria for the division were the categories and subcategories as per the Forest Act (Act No. 289/1996 Coll., sections 6–9):
These exceptions are forests with economic restrictions.
The procedure for calculating the harvest outlook (based on Institute for FM CR methodology). The following steps are followed in each decennium:
Determine the volume of regenerative harvesting according to the harvesting percentage.
The harvesting percentage is used to determine the harvesting area.
If the harvesting percentage is zero, the amount of clearing is calculated from the harvesting percentage.
The age is increased by 10 years.
The area is reduced via the harvesting area.
The first age level of the harvest area is established and included in the restored parts of the stand.
The stock is reduced via the volume of the regeneration harvest.
The stock shall be increased via an increment coefficient.
The economically usable forests were used as the basis for processing the outlooks for the development of logging possibilities. The modelling and the prediction of logging were prepared by the Institute for Forest Management in Brandýs nad Labem CR as an expert consultant. The Institute for FM operates as an expert organisation of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Czech Republic for forestry and maintains a central database with information on the forests of the Czech Republic. Subsequently, the potential volume of forest logging residues from forests on the territory of the Czech Republic has been prepared in two variants:
Variant I:
- -
(Ad a) Theoretical outlook for forest logging residues in the period of 2021–2061 by individual decades. The outlook has been processed for individual regions and converted for the entire area of the Czech Republic.
- -
(Ad b) Theoretical outlook for forest logging residues in the period of 2014–2053 by individual decades. The output is calculated in aggregate for the Czech Republic.
Variant II:
- -
Theoretical outlook for forest logging residues in the period of 2021–2061 by individual decades. The outlook has been processed for individual regions and converted for the entire area of the Czech Republic.
- -
The theoretical outlook for forest logging residues in units of volume for Variants I (a, b) was prepared by the Institute for FM CR on the basis of the Agreement.
Variant I—(Ad a)
A derivation of the potential volume of forest logging residues in forests on the Czech territory for the period of 2021–2061 by individual decades. The outlook was prepared for individual regions and converted to the entire area of the Czech Republic. The volume of forest logging residues was determined using the Biomass Conversion and Expansion Factors (BCEF) derived by Assistant Prof. Cienciala for the purposes of the emission balance of the Czech Republic.
Table 1 shows the used average proportions of forest logging residues per 1 m
3 of harvested wood, separately for regeneration and tending felling.
The derived potential volume of forest logging residues represents the total volume of forest logging residues (including bark) without any reductions.
A derivation of the potential annual volume of forest logging residues in forests on the Czech territory for the period of 2014–2053 by individual decades. The output is calculated in aggregate for the Czech Republic. For the first decade, a part of the logging volume is taken from the data obtained by the Czech Statistical Office (2014–2021); the rest is a qualified estimate (2022–2023), whereas the calamity period is taken into account. The volume of forest logging residues was derived using the Biomass Conversion and Expansion Factors (BCEF) derived by Assistant Prof. Cienciala for the purposes of the emission balance of the Czech Republic.
Table 1 shows the used average proportions of forest logging residues per 1 m
3 of harvested wood, separately for regeneration and tending logging.
The volume of logging residues can also be quantified using the Forest Resource Assessment based on the relationships shown in
Table 2.
If we want to expand the volume of timber with a top diameter of 7 cm or more without bark to the total shoot mass using the above values, we must multiply the value of timber with a top diameter of 7 cm and more under bark via a coefficient of 1.299. In other words, branches thinner than 7 cm, bark, and stumps amount to approx. 30% more than the recorded stock of timber with a top diameter of 7 cm or more without bark.
The theoretical conversions of the potential of forest logging residues from m3 to tons (t) for variants I (a; b) and variant II were carried out using a coefficient of 0.625 based on the bulk density of wood, its moisture content, and, for example, long-term contracts with the forests of the Czech Republic state enterprise (FCR, s.e.). Furthermore, attention must be drawn to the other specifics of handling forest dendromass (forest wood chips) arising from transport, handovers, etc. It means that the basic unit of wood (m3, plm) must be converted to bulk space metre (prms) and then to tons (t). The empirically determined coefficient of woodchip production volume used in operation is approx. 0.7 prms per 1 m3 of timber with a top diameter of 7 cm and more under bark; the weight of a loose cubic metre of wood chips varies depending on the type of wood and the moisture content of the wood chips. For instance, the bulk weight of coniferous wood chips with a moisture content of around 50%–60% is approx. 250–400 kg. For deciduous wood chips with a moisture content of around 50%–60%, the bulk weight of the wood chips is around 350–450 kg.
3. Results
The figures (
Figure 1 and
Figure 2) below provide information about the development in standing volume and an outlook of felling possibilities depicted in the volumes of regeneration and tending felling, with ending felling increased by 15% (the average increase for the entire Czech Republic pursuant to section 8(10) of the Decree of the Ministry of Agriculture No. 84/1996 Coll., and the total felling volume (a sum of the regeneration felling volume and the volume of tending felling increased by 15%)). Lastly,
Figure 3 shows the assortment possibilities via the individual assortment types: roundwood, pulpwood, and fuelwood.
Based on the results of the felling possibilities analyses, a more significant decrease in felling possibilities can be predicted, derived from the current development of incidental felling in the past years (2015–2021), a decrease in increment, and the felling percentage. In the second decade (2031–2040), the total standing volume will drop below 600 million m3 of timber with a top diameter of 7 cm or more under bark. Due to the course of the bark beetle calamity, there will be significant differences in the individual regions.
3.1. The Theoretical Potential of Forest Logging Residuals
Variant I (ad a) represents a derivation of the potential volume of forest logging residues in forests on the Czech territory for the period of 2021–2061 by individual decades. The outlook has been processed for individual regions and converted for the entire area of the Czech Republic.
Table 3 shows an overview of forest logging residues by individual regions and for the Czech Republic in individual decades.
Table 3 gives an overview of the annual potential of forest logging residues by individual regions and for the Czech Republic. The overview shows the distribution of the volume of forest logging residues in individual decades based on the annual available capacity.
Table 4 demonstrates the annual potential volume of forest logging residues in individual decades by individual regions and for the entire Czech Republic, calculated in tons.
Variant I (ad b) represents a derivation of the potential volume of forest logging residues in forests on the Czech territory for the period of 2014–2053 by individual decades. The output has been calculated in aggregate for the Czech Republic. For the first decade, part of the logging volume is taken from the data obtained by the Czech Statistical Office (2014–2021); the rest is a qualified estimate (2022–2023), whereas the calamity period is taken into account.
Table 5 shows an overview of the annual potential of forest logging residues by individual decades for the Czech Republic via the volume of the main tree species.
Table 6 shows the annual potential volume of forest logging residues by individual decades for the entire territory of the Czech Republic, calculated in tons.
3.2. Derivation of the Potential Volume of Forest Logging Residues in Forests on the Czech Territory (Variant II)
Table 7 gives an overview of the annual potential of forest logging residues by individual regions and for the Czech Republic. The overview shows the distribution of the volume of forest logging residues in individual decades based on the annual available capacity.
Table 8 demonstrates the annual potential volume of forest logging residues in individual decades by individual regions and for the entire Czech Republic, calculated in tons.
On the one hand, the industry’s potential is limited by unperformed projects, logistics, and fossil fuel prices. On the other hand, it is constrained by the increasing requirements to keep biomass from primary forest production in forest stands. This potential reaches a maximum of 2.5 tonnes per year (4 million m3).
This includes farmed trees, where there is some room for an increase (estimated at max. 100,000 tons) and residual dendromass in the forests. This outlook is for the middle of the second decade, approximately until 2035.
Another factor that plays a significant role is the fact that forests with an increased interest in nature protection make up 44% of the forest land for which FCR, s.e. holds the management right. The collection of forest logging residues is excluded for the category of protective forests, national nature reserves, national natural landmarks, nature reserves, nature parks, first zones of National Parks, European areas of conservation, and water resource protection zones. Furthermore, the following locations are also not particularly suitable for forest logging residues’ collection: exposed sites, natural pine sites, natural regeneration areas, and locations in the 7th and 8th forest vegetation stage zones. It follows from the above that 657 thousand ha (i.e., 56% of timber land) of land for which FCR, s.e. holds the management rights meet the criteria for locations suitable for collecting forest logging residues for energy purposes.
Another important aspect is that for 2021–2030, FCR, s.e. anticipates the sale of forest logging residues amounting to approx. 2,700,000 m3 of concentrated felling and approx. 165,000 m3 of first thinning. For 2031–2040, this volume is expected to decrease by approximately 40%.
The overall energy mix does provide much room for improvement unless the following changes:
- (a)
combustion technology and an increase in efficiency,
- (b)
technology for the production of noble fuels (2nd generation).
4. Discussion
Climate change, pollution, and energy insecurity are among the biggest problems our society is facing [
67]. With the ongoing energy crisis, renewable energy sources, if used correctly, contribute to reducing energy dependence on conventional energy sources. Thanks to low operating costs, renewable energy sources are little affected by fossil fuel price fluctuations [
27].
The Green Deal for Europe [
30], a very ambitious package of measures that should enable European citizens and businesses to enjoy the benefits of a sustainable ecological transition—has set the goal for the EU to become the world’s first climate-neutral continent by 2050. Society’s need to address issues related to global climate change has fuelled interest in the research and adoption of renewable energy sources such as the use of biomass [
68].
Demand for renewable energy sources (including biomass) is growing in many countries worldwide. The results of scientific research and the recent guidelines laid down by the Paris Agreement [
69] call for radical changes in this area. Renewable energy sources play a crucial role in the transition to clean energy. The deployment of renewable energy sources is one of the main factors in keeping the rise in average global temperature below 1.5 °C [
10].
Yet, electricity generation from renewable sources must expand faster to reach the milestones set in the Net Zero Emissions scenario by 2050, which demands the share of electricity generation from renewable sources to increase from nearly 29% in 2021 to more than 60% by 2030. Annual generation must grow at an average rate of over 12% in 2022–2030, i.e., double the 2019–2021 average [
10].
The EU needs to include as many renewable energy sources as possible in the comprehensive energy mix to meet its 2030 targets for the share of renewable energy in final gross energy consumption and the carbon neutrality of the energy sector by 2050. Looking at the EU goal, which is currently set at 32% for 2030 by Directive 2018/2001 of 11 December 2018 on the Promotion of the Use of Energy from Renewable Sources, the share of 21.8% recorded in 2021 is still significantly below this objective. Therefore, countries need to step up their efforts to stay above the baseline set in Regulation 2018/1999 on the Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action and to follow the EU’s required trajectory. That is all the more so since the Commission issued a proposal to amend the Renewable Energy Directive in 2021, seeking to increase this target to 40% and with the REPowerEU plan further increasing this target to 45% in 2022.
Currently, the share of renewable energy in the total consumption of the Czech Republic is more than 17%, while the vast majority of this energy comes from various forms of biomass [
70].
According to the publication, Development of Renewable Energy in the Czech Republic until 2030 [
70], the Czech Republic should increase its share of renewable energy sources to 33%–35% by 2030. The report indicates that the use of sustainable biomass, such as wood waste, plays only a complementary role in the further development of renewable energy—simply because biomass is and will be a limited resource. According to this report, this type of renewable energy source should increase by 4 p.p. Despite its renewable nature, however, wood is a limited resource, and currently, a significant volume of processed raw material that ends up in secondary streams is used as fuel [
45]. Wood biomass can be a sustainable source of energy, a valuable renewable alternative to the limited supply of available fossil fuels [
44,
46]. Regarding forest use, sustainability means that forests and the benefits they bring to current generations should not jeopardise the possibility for future generations to benefit from them similarly [
47]. What our forests will look like for future generations and the resulting impact of climate change on forestry will be is in the hands of forest managers [
7]. This being said, more research is needed that takes into account the environmental, economic, and social constraints of logging residue disposal [
66].
5. Conclusions
All sectors of the EU economy, including forestry, should contribute to achieving climate neutrality by all available means. Forestry could help to achieve the targets via the sustainable use of forest biomass for energy production. This would achieve energy efficiency, availability, and the security of energy supply across the European Union. The paper suggests whether and how this can be achieved.
If the set goal for the Czech Republic is the share of renewable energy sources in the total gross final energy consumption of 22% by 2030, the share of forest biomass from primary production in the energy mix is currently at its maximum available limit. A further increase in the share by 2030 while maintaining the principles of sustainable forest management is no longer possible; it could result in a threat to the security of supply in the longer term, including the risk of distortion of the wood raw material markets in technological processing assortments—saw logs, wood for the paper and pulp industry, and the production of wood-based agglomerated materials.
For these reasons, it is clear that if we want to preserve the quality of forests in the Czech Republic in the future, we need to focus on other resources that could be used to meet the goals set by our country as an EU Member State. A potential option can be found in the waste generated at sawmills, paper mills, or the construction industry, i.e., wherever unprocessed wood waste remains.