Total Streamflow Variation for the Upper Catchment of Bosten Lake Basin in China Inferred from Tree-Ring Width Records

Bosten Lake Basin not only is a major source of drinking water for the residents of the surrounding area, but also maintains the ecological balance of the region. However, with the influence of climate change and human activities, the water level of Bosten Lake fluctuates sharply and has a great impact on the surrounding ecological environment. Therefore, the study of its historical water flow changes as a reference has become a focus of research. In this study, the radial growth of Schrenk spruces (Picea schrenkiana Fisch. et Mey.) significantly correlated with the tributary streamflow coming from the mountainous region near Bosten Lake Basin. On the basis of this good coherence, the tree-ring chronologies were used to reconstruct the streamflow for Huangshuigou River from the previous August to the present July (r = 0.766, p < 0.0001, n = 50). The reconstructed streamflow series matched observations well, explaining 63.3% of the variation in the observed streamflow of 1956–2005. Then, the sum of the streamflow reconstruction of Huangshuigou River and another two tree-ring-based streamflow reconstructions (Kaidu River and Qingshui River) was used to represent the hydrological variation of the upper catchment of Bosten Lake Basin, and the reconstruction sequence was 306 years. The 10.7, 5.5, and 2.1 year cycles of the power spectrum and wavelet analysis revealed that the runoff series reconstructed from tree-ring hydrometeorology was related to solar activity. Some dry and wet years in the reconstructed streamflow series of the upper catchment of Bosten Lake Basin corresponded to the historical record. During the wet years, the Indian Ocean was probably the main source of precipitation.