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Open AccessArticle

Prospects of Using Tree-Ring Earlywood and Latewood Width for Reconstruction of Crops Yield on Example of South Siberia

1
Khakass Technical Institute, Siberian Federal University, 655017 Abakan, Russia
2
Birbal Sahni Institute of Palaeosciences, Lucknow 226 007, India
3
Department of Crop Production, Breeding and Seed Development, Krasnoyarsk State Agrarian University, 660049 Krasnoyarsk, Russia
4
Rectorate, Siberian Federal University, 660036 Krasnoyarsk, Russia
5
Sukachev Institute of Forest, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Science, 660036 Krasnoyarsk, Russia
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Ignacio García-González
Forests 2021, 12(2), 174; https://doi.org/10.3390/f12020174
Received: 15 December 2020 / Revised: 25 January 2021 / Accepted: 29 January 2021 / Published: 2 February 2021
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Effect of Climate Change on Plant Phenology)
Improvement of dendrochronological crops yield reconstruction by separate application of earlywood and latewood width chronologies succeeded in rain-fed semiarid region. (1) Background: Tree-ring width chronologies have been successfully applied for crops yield reconstruction models. We propose application of separated earlywood and latewood width chronologies as possible predictors improving the fitness of reconstruction models. (2) Methods: The generalized yield series of main crops (spring wheat, spring barley, oats) were investigated in rain-fed and irrigated areas in semiarid steppes of South Siberia. Chronologies of earlywood, latewood, and total ring width of Siberian larch (Larix sibirica Ledeb.) growing in forest-steppe in the middle of the study area were tested as predictors of yield reconstruction models. (3) Results: In the rain-fed territory, separation of earlywood and latewood allowed increasing variation of yield explained by reconstruction model from 17.4 to 20.5%, whereas total climatic-driven component of variation was 41.5%. However, both tree-ring based models explained only 7.7% of yield variation in the irrigated territory (climate inclusion increased it to 34.8%). Low temperature sensitivity of larch growth was the main limitation of the model. A 240-year (1780–2019) history of crop failures and yield variation dynamics were estimated from the actual data and the best reconstruction model. (4) Conclusions: Presently in the study region, breeding of the environment-resistant crops varieties compensates the increase of temperature in the yield dynamics, preventing severe harvest losses. Tree-ring based reconstructions may help to understand and forecast response of the crops to the climatic variability, and also the probability of crop failures, particularly in the rain-fed territories. View Full-Text
Keywords: Siberian larch; tree-ring chronologies; earlywood width; latewood width; small grain crops; semiarid conditions; crops failures; reconstruction model Siberian larch; tree-ring chronologies; earlywood width; latewood width; small grain crops; semiarid conditions; crops failures; reconstruction model
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MDPI and ACS Style

Babushkina, E.A.; Zhirnova, D.F.; Belokopytova, L.V.; Mehrotra, N.; Shah, S.K.; Keler, V.V.; Vaganov, E.A. Prospects of Using Tree-Ring Earlywood and Latewood Width for Reconstruction of Crops Yield on Example of South Siberia. Forests 2021, 12, 174. https://doi.org/10.3390/f12020174

AMA Style

Babushkina EA, Zhirnova DF, Belokopytova LV, Mehrotra N, Shah SK, Keler VV, Vaganov EA. Prospects of Using Tree-Ring Earlywood and Latewood Width for Reconstruction of Crops Yield on Example of South Siberia. Forests. 2021; 12(2):174. https://doi.org/10.3390/f12020174

Chicago/Turabian Style

Babushkina, Elena A.; Zhirnova, Dina F.; Belokopytova, Liliana V.; Mehrotra, Nivedita; Shah, Santosh K.; Keler, Viktoria V.; Vaganov, Eugene A. 2021. "Prospects of Using Tree-Ring Earlywood and Latewood Width for Reconstruction of Crops Yield on Example of South Siberia" Forests 12, no. 2: 174. https://doi.org/10.3390/f12020174

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