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Open AccessArticle

Modeling and Mapping Forest Fire Occurrence from Aboveground Carbon Density in Mexico

1
Facultad de Ciencias Forestales, Universidad Juárez del Estado de Durango, Río Papaloapan y Blvd, Durango S/N Col. Valle del Sur, 34120 Durango, Mexico
2
Instituto de Silvicultura e Industria de la madera, Universidad Juárez del Estado de Durango, Boulevard del Guadiana 501, Ciudad Universitaria, Torre de Investigación, 34120 Durango, Mexico
3
School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Mailbox 352100, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
4
Pacific Southwest Research Station, US Department of Agriculture Forest Service, (retired), 4955 Canyon Crest Drive, Riverside, CA 92507, USA
5
Departamento de Ingeniería Agroforestal, Universidad de Santiago de Compostela, Escuela Politécnica Superior de Ingeniería, Campus Universitario s/n, 27002 Lugo, Spain
6
USDA Forest Service, Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory, Missoula, MT 59808, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Forests 2019, 10(5), 402; https://doi.org/10.3390/f10050402
Received: 3 April 2019 / Revised: 25 April 2019 / Accepted: 4 May 2019 / Published: 9 May 2019
(This article belongs to the Section Forest Ecology and Management)
Understanding the spatial patterns of fire occurrence is key for improved forest fires management, particularly under global change scenarios. Very few studies have attempted to relate satellite-based aboveground biomass maps of moderate spatial resolution to spatial fire occurrence under a variety of climatic and vegetation conditions. This study focuses on modeling and mapping fire occurrence based on fire suppression data from 2005–2015 from aboveground biomass—expressed as aboveground carbon density (AGCD)—for the main ecoregions in Mexico. Our results showed that at each ecoregion, unimodal or humped relationships were found between AGCD and fire occurrence, which might be explained by varying constraints of fuel and climate limitation to fire activity. Weibull equations successfully fitted the fire occurrence distributions from AGCD, with the lowest fit for the desert shrub-dominated north region that had the lowest number of observed fires. The models for predicting fire occurrence from AGCD were significantly different by region, with the exception of the temperate forest in the northwest and northeast regions that could be modeled with a single Weibull model. Our results suggest that AGCD could be used to estimate spatial fire occurrence maps; those estimates could be integrated into operational GIS tools for assistance in fire danger mapping and fire and fuel management decision-making. Further investigation of anthropogenic drivers of fire occurrence and fuel characteristics should be considered for improving the operational spatial planning of fire management. The modeling strategy presented here could be replicated in other countries or regions, based on remote-sensed measurements of aboveground biomass and fire activity or fire suppression records. View Full-Text
Keywords: aboveground biomass; ecoregions; fire occurrence aboveground biomass; ecoregions; fire occurrence
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MDPI and ACS Style

Briones-Herrera, C.I.; Vega-Nieva, D.J.; Monjarás-Vega, N.A.; Flores-Medina, F.; Lopez-Serrano, P.M.; Corral-Rivas, J.J.; Carrillo-Parra, A.; Pulgarin-Gámiz, M.Á.; Alvarado-Celestino, E.; González-Cabán, A.; Arellano-Pérez, S.; Álvarez-González, J.G.; Ruiz-González, A.D.; Jolly, W.M. Modeling and Mapping Forest Fire Occurrence from Aboveground Carbon Density in Mexico. Forests 2019, 10, 402. https://doi.org/10.3390/f10050402

AMA Style

Briones-Herrera CI, Vega-Nieva DJ, Monjarás-Vega NA, Flores-Medina F, Lopez-Serrano PM, Corral-Rivas JJ, Carrillo-Parra A, Pulgarin-Gámiz MÁ, Alvarado-Celestino E, González-Cabán A, Arellano-Pérez S, Álvarez-González JG, Ruiz-González AD, Jolly WM. Modeling and Mapping Forest Fire Occurrence from Aboveground Carbon Density in Mexico. Forests. 2019; 10(5):402. https://doi.org/10.3390/f10050402

Chicago/Turabian Style

Briones-Herrera, Carlos I.; Vega-Nieva, Daniel J.; Monjarás-Vega, Norma A.; Flores-Medina, Favian; Lopez-Serrano, Pablito M.; Corral-Rivas, José J.; Carrillo-Parra, Artemio; Pulgarin-Gámiz, Miguel Á.; Alvarado-Celestino, Ernesto; González-Cabán, Armando; Arellano-Pérez, Stéfano; Álvarez-González, Juan G.; Ruiz-González, Ana D.; Jolly, William M. 2019. "Modeling and Mapping Forest Fire Occurrence from Aboveground Carbon Density in Mexico" Forests 10, no. 5: 402. https://doi.org/10.3390/f10050402

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