- freely available
Algorithms 2016, 9(3), 45; https://doi.org/10.3390/a9030045
2. Literature Review
- Budgeted Cost of Work scheduled ()
- Actual Costs Work Performed (ACWP)
- Budgeted Cost of Work Performed ()
- Earned schedule (ES)
- Schedule Variance (SV = )
- Schedule Performance Index (SPI = )
- Cost Variance (CV = )
- Cost Performance Index (CPI = )
- EDAC = PD/SPI
2.3. Simulation Project Techniques
3.1. Project Progress Generator Framework
- Progress Simulation for Time (PST): PST calculates different indices in various time sections and focuses on time parameters to simulate the progress of projects.PST consists of the following steps:
- Determining the input project and parameters;
- Constructing project scheduling;
- Updating the project’s progress daily;
- Computing the project’s actual progress daily, based on the set inputs. Suppose represents the random impact of risk overall, then The impact of risk events, , integrated with the above task progress is shown as follows:
- Calculating different measurement indices (i.e., EVM measurements);
- Continuing until the project is entirely completed.
- Progress Simulation for Cost (PSC): PSC simulates the progress of projects via cost progress during project execution, calculates different indices in different time sections and focuses on cost parameters. PSC is developed mainly based on the PST structure and focuses on the cost parameters. The following is a list of other principles of PSC.
- Determining the input costing parameters;
- Calculating planned cost progress based on a general specification (i.e., inflation rate) and each task’s specifications (i.e., costs of resources);
- The daily cost of each task is calculated based on resource consumption of the task on that day and other costing parameters;
- The daily project cost is calculated until the project is finished.
3.2. Input Parameters
3.3. Output Validation
- The total cost of the project (Y1);
- The total life time of the project (t1);
- The point of time when the project has spent half of its total funds (t1/2).
4. Data Description
4.1. Fictitious Project Data
4.2. Empirical Project Data
5. Simulation Result
5.1. Fictitious Project Results
- The project has four disciplines comprising 20%, 10%, 40% and 30% of all of the tasks, and back-loaded, flat, front-loaded and bell are their work contours, respectively.
- Eighty percent of task delays are in the range of 10% of scheduled progress.
- The project was simulated with a 20% inflation rate for the last six months.
- Selection of the window length L:
- Selection of r:
5.1.1. Effect of Input Parameters on the Simulator Results
- Effect of Resource Constrains:
- Effect of discipline and work contour:
- Effect of the changes in the progress status:
- The actual progress of tasks fluctuates ±0.2 of their plan progress.
- The actual progress of tasks fluctuates ±0.3 of their plan progress.
5.2. Case Study Results
Conflicts of Interest
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|Time of Forecast||% Schedule Completed||% Work Completed||EDAC||ES||CV%|
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