# Data Analysis, Simulation and Visualization for Environmentally Safe Maritime Data

## Abstract

**:**

## 1. Introduction

#### 1.1. ICT and Maritime Data Engineering

#### 1.2. Factors That Raise Marine Traffic Engineering Awareness

#### 1.2.1. Sea Traffic

#### 1.2.2. Accidents and Hazards

#### Lack of Designated Shipping Lanes

#### 1.2.3. Impact of Maritime Accidents

#### 1.3. Research Questions

- RQ1: How to incorporate various heterogeneous data sources about marine traffic, vessel information and sea conditions towards modeling and understanding potential hazardous situations.
- RQ2: How to exploit historical data towards creating a simulation tool for inferring about future situations under conditions of uncertainty.
- RQ3: How to create useful visualization and insights for the domain, in order to help experts formulate policies, regulations, reform emergency plans, etc.

## 2. Related Work

## 3. Theoretical Background

**VesselType**,

**Cargo**,

**Accident**and

**Pollution**. Each one of these parameters contain the listed values:

- VesselType:
- ○
- New
- ○
- Old

- Cargo:
- ○
- Dangerous
- ○
- Not Dangerous

- Accident:
- ○
- Yes
- ○
- No

- Pollution:
- ○
- High
- ○
- Low

- The variables VesselType and Cargo are marginally independent, but when Accident is observed (given) they are conditionally dependent. The type of this relation is often named as explaining away.
- When Accident is given, Pollution is conditionally independent of its ancestors VesselType and Cargo.
- Instead of factorizing the joint distribution of all variables using the chain rule, such as P(V,C,A,P) = P(V)P(C|V)P(A|C,V)P(P|A,C,V) the BN defines a compact JPD in a factored form, such as P(V,C,A,P) = P(V)P(C)P(A|V,C)P(P|A). Note that the BN structure reduces the number of model parameters (i.e., the number of rows in the JPD table) from 2
^{4}− 1 = 15 to only 8. This property is of major importance since it allows researchers to create a tractable model of domains with a plethora of attributes.

#### Hybrid Bayesian Networks

## 4. Marine Simulation System

#### 4.1. Data Description and Preprocessing

^{2}for our area of interest. Different levels of granularity were thoroughly evaluated and in spite of being supported, results have shown that low areas pose significant computational and managerial restrictions to the latter components of the system such as the data mining and the Bayesian network component without gaining significant forecasting outcomes.

- Number of ships
- ○
- It represents the total number of ships that passed through that RoI in a whole time slot (day, week, month)

- Average speed
- ○
- For each RoI, the speed of each instance is averaged on the number of instances

- Hazardous cargo
- ○
- the most frequent hazard level, as extracted by looking at all cargos from ships that passed through this RoI (i.e., nominal value from A to D, A denoting the most hazardous situation). This is a weighted value in order to give more emphasis on the hazardous load.

- Ship density
- ○
- The average distance between all ships that passed through a RoI.

- Wave height
- ○
- As retrieved from the POSEIDON system

#### 4.2. System Programming Details

#### 4.3. Simulation Phase

## 5. Experimental Evaluation

#### 5.1. Measuring Clustering Validation

_{i}is the i-th cluster and c

_{i}(in lower case) represents the centroid of C

_{i}.

#### 5.2. Evaluation of the Inference Performance

#### 5.2.1. Mean Absolute Error

_{i}of an algorithm I is calculated by the equation:

**P**is the value that algorithm

_{(ij)}**I**forecasted for a

**j-th**sample (from a set of n examples) and

**T**is the value of the ‘target value’ for the j-th example. For an ideal classification,

_{j}**P**and

_{(ij)}= T_{j}**E**= 0. So, the

_{i}**E**indicator varies from 0 to infinity, with 0 to correspond to the ideal classification.

_{i}#### 5.2.2. Root Mean Squared Error

_{i}of an algorithm I is calculated by the equation:

**P**is the value that algorithm

_{(ij)}**I**forecasted for the sample

**j**(from a set of examples) and

**Tj**is the value of the ‘target value’ for the

**j-th**example. For an ideal classification,

**P**and

_{(ij)}= T_{j}**E**= 0.

_{i}## 6. Modeling Marine Transportation as Social Network

#### 6.1. Social Network Analysis Measures

#### 6.2. Applying SNA to Marine Traffic Data

## 7. Conclusions

## Author Contributions

## Funding

## Conflicts of Interest

## References

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**Figure 1.**A 24h shipping trajectory compilation in the Aegean Sea. Source: Archipelagos®., Samos, Greece.

**Figure 14.**Comparing the performance of the proposed Bayesian method against Linear Regression analysis (

**a**) and Neural Networks (

**b**).

**Figure 15.**SNA of real ship transportation data for a given day (27/09/2018) in the Aegean Sea. Nodes are sized according to the betweenness centrality metric and colored according to their modularity class. Edges are weighted according to the number of ships passing between the nodes.

**Figure 16.**The network of Figure 15, layered upon a Google map of the area.

k-Means | DBSCAN | ΕΜ | |
---|---|---|---|

Day | −748.720 | −3582.824 | −1705.336 |

Week | −769.273 | −3701.001 | −1715.009 |

Month | −991.182 | −3717.501 | −2195.938 |

k-Means | DBSCAN | ΕΜ | |
---|---|---|---|

Day | 0.741 | 0.343 | 0.610 |

Week | 0.733 | 0.311 | 0.606 |

Month | 0.681 | 0.303 | 0.588 |

Null Hypothesis: Both Forecasts Have the Same Accuracy | |||
---|---|---|---|

p-value | LR | BN | NN |

LR | 0.0073 | 0.6311 | |

BN | 0.0088 | ||

NN | |||

DM statistic | LR | BN | NN |

LR | 0.6264 | 0.4305 | |

BN | −3.8733 | ||

NN |

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**MDPI and ACS Style**

Maragoudakis, M. Data Analysis, Simulation and Visualization for Environmentally Safe Maritime Data. *Algorithms* **2019**, *12*, 27.
https://doi.org/10.3390/a12010027

**AMA Style**

Maragoudakis M. Data Analysis, Simulation and Visualization for Environmentally Safe Maritime Data. *Algorithms*. 2019; 12(1):27.
https://doi.org/10.3390/a12010027

**Chicago/Turabian Style**

Maragoudakis, Manolis. 2019. "Data Analysis, Simulation and Visualization for Environmentally Safe Maritime Data" *Algorithms* 12, no. 1: 27.
https://doi.org/10.3390/a12010027