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Energies 2016, 9(12), 1062;

An Analysis Based on SD Model for Energy-Related CO2 Mitigation in the Chinese Household Sector

College of Earth and Environmental Science, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
Department of Geography, University of Toronto Mississauga, Mississauga, ON L5L 1C6, Canada
College of Geographical Science, Shanxi Normal University, Linfen 041004, China
Guangwumen Sub-District Office of the Chengguan District Government, Lanzhou 730000, China
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Vincenzo Dovì
Received: 28 September 2016 / Revised: 5 December 2016 / Accepted: 7 December 2016 / Published: 15 December 2016
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Energy Policy and Climate Change 2016)
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Reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions has become a global consensus in response to global warming and climate change, especially to China, the largest CO2 emitter in the world. Most studies have focused on CO2 emissions from the production sector, however, the household sector plays an important role in the total energy-related CO2 emissions. This study formulates an integrated model based on logarithmic mean Divisia index methodology and a system dynamics model to dynamically simulate household energy consumption and CO2 emissions under different conditions. Results show the following: (1) the integrated model performs well in calculating the contribution of influencing factors on household CO2 emissions and analyzing the options for CO2 emission mitigation; (2) the increase in income is the dominant driving force of household CO2 emissions, and as a result of the improved standard of living in China a sustained increase in household CO2 emissions can be expected; (3) with decreasing energy intensity, CO2 emissions will decrease to 404.26 Mt-CO2 in 2020, which is 9.84% lower than the emissions in 2014; (4) the reduction potential by developing non-fossil energy sources is limited, and raising the rate of urbanization cannot reduce the household CO2 emission under the comprehensive influence of other factors. View Full-Text
Keywords: CO2 emissions; household sector; system dynamics CO2 emissions; household sector; system dynamics

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Chen, X.; Wang, G.; Guo, X.; Fu, J. An Analysis Based on SD Model for Energy-Related CO2 Mitigation in the Chinese Household Sector. Energies 2016, 9, 1062.

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