A Study on the Impact of Energy Diplomacy on China’s Crude Oil Trade

Based on the information of China’s bilateral energy diplomacy with 43 countries from 2000 to 2023, this study analyzes the impact of different diplomatic forms on China’s crude oil trade. A fixed-effects model is reconstructed to analyze the impact of various aspects of energy diplomacy on China’s crude oil trade based on panel data. These aspects include diplomacy frequency, frequency of visits, first or regular visits by heads of state, changes in diplomatic relationship levels, whether oil or energy is involved in joint public statements, and the nature of diplomacy (bilateral or multilateral). This study provides a reference for strategic decision-making in China’s energy diplomacy and indicates that frequent meetings of heads of state and proactive “going out” strategies in energy diplomacy significantly promote crude oil trade cooperation between two countries and ensure national energy security. Bilateral energy diplomacy is more effective in fostering crude oil trade cooperation with resource countries compared to multilateral diplomacy, with particularly notable effects in neighboring countries and those that belong to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The Chinese government could increase the frequency of energy diplomacy, appropriately increase the frequency of overseas visits, and be more proactive in “going out” for energy diplomacy. There should be a greater focus on bilateral energy diplomacy with key resource countries, including neighboring countries such as Russia and Kazakhstan, as well as BRI countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, and Indonesia. It is also crucial to enhance the discourse power and influence of China in the global energy governance system. If the outcome documents of diplomatic activities involve crude oil or energy cooperation, they may invite competition from other resource countries or intervention from external forces. It is recommended that the principle of “do more, say less” is upheld. Any sensitive or controversial topics that would cause external interferences should be avoided, and not be included or actively mentioned. Based on practical cooperation with potential partner countries, the entire industry chain of energy investment, trade, technical services, and engineering equipment will be strengthened.