Decarbonisation Prospects of the Chemical and Petrochemical Industry in Italy

Abstract

Although the chemical and petrochemical (C&P) industry is a cornerstone of the Italian and European economies, it is also an intensive energy consumer and a high emitter of greenhouse gases. Europe’s decarbonisation trajectory is often examined through the lens of individual countries, as key factors such as industry status, structure and resource accessibility may differ across nations. This study specifically examines the Italian C&P industry, with an emphasis on the basic chemicals sector. It reviews the current status of the production processes, technologies, energy consumption and carbon footprint in the sector, along with advancements towards decarbonisation. Key decarbonisation technologies are reviewed, highlighting their current use or research and development status. The primary barriers to the adoption of prospective decarbonisation solutions (e.g., increased costs and need for additional renewable capacity and infrastructure development) are discussed. While the Italian C&P sector has adopted strategies to enhance energy efficiency and waste recovery and utilisation, it is uncertain whether the industry will be able to meet the 2050 carbon emissions targets by relying on these two decarbonisation approaches alone. A combination of additional decarbonisation technologies, including electrification, green hydrogen and carbon capture utilisation and storage, will likely be necessary. However, technical challenges exist due to the maturity level of these technologies and their applicability to highly integrated processes. Appropriate, timely policy support will be crucial to aiding the green transition of the Italian C&P sector while safeguarding its significant role in the Italian economy.

1. Introduction

The European Union (EU)’s ambitious plan to be carbon neutral by 2050 is expected to have substantial impacts on energy-intensive industries, including the chemical and petrochemical (C&P) industry. The C&P sector makes a significant contribution to Europe’s total energy consumption and carbon dioxide equivalent (CO_2eq) emissions, accounting for approximately 5% of the continent’s total emissions [1]. Major changes to the C&P industry are essential if it is to decarbonise and if the European Green Deal’s goals of lowering emissions by 55% by 2030 and increasing renewable power use to 40% are to be met [2].

Researchers have explored a variety of technical solutions to achieve decarbonisation in the C&P sector. They have devised global decarbonisation strategies for the C&P sector to reduce energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 [3,4]. Many studies have centred on the approaches that Europe, specifically, can take to align its energy-intensive industries with the EU’s 2050 goal. Many investigations are being led by government agencies and trade organisations such as the European Commission (EC) [5], the EC’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) [6] and the European Chemical Industry Council (Cefic) [7].

In a broader perspective, several potential solutions have been assessed for feasibility. Chung et al. [8] adopted a sociotechnical approach to review decarbonisation options for the C&P industry, while Woodall et al. [9] specifically focused on decarbonisation of the production of ammonia, methanol and ethylene. Several studies have explored decarbonisation options that can be applied across multiple industrial sectors, including C&P [10,11]. Others have taken a more specialised approach, examining the potential decarbonisation impact of specific technologies, such as biomass and electricity [12,13] or carbon capture utilisation and storage (CCUS) [14,15], as well as barriers to their use.

These studies have revealed the challenges associated with applying decarbonisation strategies in real-world scenarios [16], particularly due to operational and economic differences within the EU. Resource availability and industrial structure, for example, are significant factors affecting the choice and implementation of decarbonisation solutions [16,17]. In the C&P industry, as in other energy-intensive sectors, technological, infrastructure, market and policy constraints are closely interrelated over the entire value chain [18]. The conditions required for decarbonisation technologies to be technically, economically and politically sustainable over time may differ significantly between countries.

While the C&P decarbonisation efforts of specific countries within Europe, such as the United Kingdom [16,19] and Germany [19], have been widely explored, limited attention has been paid to Italy. Although Italy is recognised as a major C&P producer within Europe and worldwide, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, there has not been a comprehensive review of the specific technological solutions, challenges and opportunities for decarbonising the Italian C&P sector. The existing works overlook the distinctive production practices, resource landscape, and policy and market framework of the Italian C&P industry.

This work aims to fill this gap in the literature by evaluating the current status of the Italian C&P sector (including key factors related to its energy consumption and carbon footprint) and examining its progress towards decarbonisation. It identifies the decarbonisation solutions that are already in use or under development, as well as those which may lead to breakthroughs in the industry. The analysis highlights important barriers to the deployment of the identified industrial decarbonisation options and outlines the need for future policies to promote their commercialisation. The findings of this study can offer a foundation for a scenario analysis that identifies near- and long-term decarbonisation strategies that are customised for Italy’s C&P industry. The findings may also be adapted to industrial decarbonisation initiatives in other countries, contributing to the ongoing global discussion on the opportunities for and threats to green industrial transformation.

2. Method and Data

The chemical and petrochemical industry, as defined in the national energy balance, is identified by categories C20 and C21 of the European statistical classification of economic activities (NACE classification), which correspond to the same categories in the Italian statistical classification (ATECO classification). Accordingly, the industry encompasses the production of chemicals and chemical products (Category C20) as well as pharmaceutical goods (Category C21). This review primarily focused on the production of chemicals and chemical products classified under NACE/ATECO C20, which includes the manufacture of ‘basic chemicals’ and ‘other chemicals’ such as fertilisers and nitrogen compounds; plastics and synthetic rubber in primary forms; pesticides and other agrochemical products; paints, varnishes and similar coatings; printing ink and mastics; soap and detergents; cleaning and polishing preparations; perfumes and toilet preparations; man-made fibres; glues; and explosives. Particular emphasis was placed on the basic chemicals subsector. Although closely linked to C&P industrial activities, refineries (classified under NACE/ATECO C19) were not included in this analysis. Scopus was used to identify the most pertinent publications from journals, conferences and research centres for evaluation, using search terms such as ‘chemical’, ‘petrochemical’, ‘Italy’, ‘industry’, ‘decarbonisation’ and ‘defossilisation’. Decarbonisation pathways outlined by Italian and European industrial organisations were also reviewed. Relevant data from databases such as the EU Emissions Trading System’s transaction log [20] and the JRC’s Integrated Database of the European Energy System (JRC-IDEES) [21] were collected and analysed.

The literature and data review aimed to accomplish two key objectives. First, it sought to summarise the current status of the production processes, available technologies, energy resources, energy consumption and emissions in the C&P sector based on 2019 data (or the most recently available data). It identified the ongoing decarbonisation approaches and progress to decarbonisation in the sector. Second, it gathered the most promising decarbonisation strategies proposed by the EU and major players, analysing them from a feasibility and research and development (R&D) perspective in the Italian C&P sector.

In particular, the analysis focused on decarbonisation technologies which target Scope 1 emissions (i.e., greenhouse gas emissions coming directly from a site) from the fuel combustion required for the production of C&P products. Decarbonisation measures addressing process emissions, which derive from chemical processes occurring during production phases, were also taken into consideration when relevant. Scope 2 emissions (i.e., indirect emissions due to external energy sources such as electricity) were included when available, but without further investigation, based on the assumption that increasing the share of renewable energy should ultimately reduce this type of emissions.

The decarbonisation options reviewed were categorised into six major categories: energy efficiency enhancement, waste recovery and utilisation, electrification, hydrogen, biomass and CCUS. No ranking of these decarbonisation options on specific technical or economic measures, such as emission reduction potential or costs, is provided here, as the associated values may vary considerably across countries and studies and are heavily dependent on the underlying information and assumptions that are not always readily accessible. Instead, this study provides an overview of the deployment, readiness and development of key decarbonisation solutions for the Italian C&P industrial context.

3. C&P Industry

In 2019, the global C&P industry achieved a production value of approximately EUR 3700 billion, totalling 7% of the global gross domestic product (GDP) [22]. Although China has established itself as the industry leader, accounting for 41% of global production, the European chemical sector continues to occupy a prominent role in the industry, with revenues of EUR 578 billion per year and accounting for 16% of the market. Europe maintains a technological edge in the environmental sustainability and flexibility of its systems and products, allowing European producers to respond innovatively and competitively to market needs.

The numerous types of production in the C&P sector can be grouped into three main categories: basic chemicals, fine and speciality chemicals, and consumer products. As the third largest chemical producer in Europe (9.5%), after Germany (27.2%) and France (13.4%), and the twelfth largest in the world (1.5%), Italy is active in all of these fields (Figure 1). The basic chemical category represents key supply chain constituents for downstream chemical companies and accounts for 38.6% of the Italian chemical production industry in terms of value. Basic chemicals are primarily used by the chemical industry and other industries, which are converted into general consumer items. Fine and speciality chemicals—complex chemicals that serve as specialised intermediate goods for other industrial sectors—represent approximately 45.7% of Italian chemical production. Consumer products account for 15.6% of Italian chemical production and include chemicals intended for the end user such as some types of paints and varnishes, detergents and cosmetics [23].

Chemical products are used in all economic activities in Italy, including agriculture (4.2%), services (11.8%) and household consumption (14.6%), but are most predominantly used in industry (69.4%) [22]. The Italian C&P sector has a strong focus on ‘downstream chemistry’ (i.e., fine and speciality chemicals and consumer products), including the production of pharmaceutical active substances, where Italy is a global leader. The downstream chemistry subsector accounts for more than 60% of the C&P output value in Italy, compared to only 44.6% in the EU [23]. Despite high energy costs and inadequate infrastructure, the basic chemicals subsector also maintains a strategic role in the C&P industry; the highly integrated supply chain within the C&P sector suggests that a reduction in the ‘upstream chemistry’ subsector (including innovation initiatives) can ultimately threaten downstream subsectors [22].

Despite China’s rise, the Italian C&P industry successfully maintained its global market share of 2.4% in 2022, which has remained unchanged since 2012 [24]. Since 2012, it has been consistently ranked second in chemical export performance, behind Spain but surpassing Germany. Over 70% of Italy’s total chemical production (including pharmaceuticals), or approximately EUR 104 billion, was exported in 2019; imports for the same year amounted to EUR 124.2 billion [23]. Its primary target markets are Germany, France, Spain and the United States. The majority of imports from European countries come from Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands; however, China has established itself as Italy’s second-largest supplier of chemicals, increasing its market share from 3% in 2010 to more than 10% in 2022 [25].

3.1. Production Processes

The production processes within the C&P industry are particularly fragmented and heterogeneous, with diverse energy consumption needs. Production processes can range from complex continuous processes for large-volume basic chemicals to smaller-scale, batch processes for speciality chemicals and pharmaceuticals [26]. Due to the structural complexity of the C&P industry, the European Commission has issued seven BREF documents outlining the best available technologies applicable to the C&P industry, rather than a single document, as is common in other industries. Two additional BREF documents focus on the treatment of gaseous and liquid waste. Considering the variety and complexity of the production processes involved, the following analysis primarily focuses on the basic chemicals subsector due to its pivotal role in the chemical industry supply chain (as well as in other industries) and its significant contribution to overall energy consumption within the C&P sector.

Table 1. Overview of some of the key chemical processes in the Italian basic chemicals industry [6,27,28].

Process	Brief Description
Cracking	Cracking, performed through catalytic (catalytic cracking) or thermal (steam cracking) means, is a means of obtaining lighter compounds from petroleum constituents. It is used to produce petrochemical products, such as ethylene, propylene, butadiene and BTX (benzene, toluene and xylene).
Reforming	Reforming is a chemical process in which hydrocarbons are restructured through the use of heat, pressure and/or a catalyst. It is applied in the production of methanol or BTX.
Haber–Bosch	In the Haber–Bosch process for ammonia production, natural gas and steam react on an iron-based catalyst at pressures of 150–350 bar and temperatures of 450–550 °C to form nitrogen and hydrogen and, ultimately, ammonia. The hydrogen is supplied by methane steam reforming. A large proportion of the CO2 formed during the reforming process is subsequently used for the production of urea.
Chloralkali process	The chloralkali process consists of the electrolysis of aqueous sodium chloride to produce chlorine. Hydrogen gas and sodium hydroxide are also produced.

summarises some of the most energy-intensive processes used in the basic chemicals industry in Italy.

Heat is delivered to chemical processes using a variety of approaches, such as natural-gas-fired boilers that generate steam at varied pressures, recovering heat from exothermic processes or waste streams, and heat exchange in which a feedstock stream is preheated by cooling a product stream. Additionally, the C&P industry uses furnaces to directly supply heat for operations that call for extremely high temperatures, such as the cracking step within the olefin manufacturing process. While different fuels can be used, natural gas and recovered waste gases are typically used. Several chemical facilities use combined heat and power (CHP) to increase their energy efficiency when the relative demand for heat and power is suitable [26].

3.2. Energy Consumption and Environmental Performance

In 2019, the total energy consumption of the Italian C&P sector was 40 TWh (3496 kilotonnes of oil equivalent [ktoe]), which is the third highest along with the machinery industry, after the iron and steel and non-metallic minerals sectors [29]. Electricity accounts for 34% of the industrial energy needs within the C&P industry, with the majority of the thermal energy requirements being met by natural gas (27%) or oil and petroleum products (9%). The remaining energy needs (2%) are covered by other fossil fuels, biofuels and non-renewable waste. As seen in Figure 2, the basic chemicals subsector is responsible for the highest share of final energy consumption (52%).

Unlike other industries, the C&P industry uses fossil fuels as feedstock. A significant share of the fossil fuels consumed is allocated to feedstock usage (i.e., fossil fuels employed as raw materials) rather than for process energy. In 2019, the chemical feedstock input reached 4966 ktoe, surpassing the process energy input, which stood at 3496 ktoe, and representing approximately 60% of the overall input in the industry [21]. The non-energy use of fossil fuels is entirely attributable to the basic chemicals subsector, confirming its role as the most energy-intensive subsector within the C&P industry.

Figure 3 breaks down the final energy consumption by key activities in the production processes within the basic chemicals subsector. Steam processing is the primary contributor to energy consumption (44%), with furnaces being the second greatest energy consumer (19%). Auxiliary equipment, such as fans and pumps, also makes a significant contribution to the overall energy use (29%). Currently, steam used is either distributed steam (61%) or is produced using natural gas and biogas (21%), biomass and waste (5%) or liquid fuels (13%) such as diesel oil, fuel oil and biofuel. Furnaces are predominantly fuelled by natural gas and biogas (80%) and, to a smaller extent, by liquid fuels such as fuel oil, diesel and biofuels (19%), and solid fuels (1%).

In 2019, the Italian C&P sector was responsible for 15 MtCO_2eq of Scope 1 emissions and 6 MtCO_2eq of Scope 2 emissions [30]. In terms of ETS emissions, the Italian C&P sector was responsible for 6.9 MtCO_2eq in 2019, i.e., approximately 5% of the total national ETS emissions [31,32]. This represents a 21% increase in ETS emissions from the sector compared to 2005; this was likely due to an extension of the scope of the ETS scheme in 2013 (when petrochemical plants were included [31]), which increased the number of plants included in the scheme by 18%.

The C&P industry is projected to face significant economic consequences from emissions that exceed its free allowances during Phase 4 of the ETS scheme. In 2019, at the end of Phase 3, the ratio of free allowances to verified emissions within the C&P industry was 0.94 [32]. By 2030, emissions from the production of key Italian chemical products (i.e., sodium bicarbonate, ethylene and its derivatives, ammonia, intermediate products for textile fibres, paraffins and olefins) are expected to exceed the free allowances by 2 MtCO_2eq, reducing the industry’s gross operating margin [33].

A comparison of the specific energy consumption and CO₂ emissions of the Italian basic chemicals sector with the average European values is reported in

Table 2. Benchmark of the Italian basic chemicals industry with European industry in 2019 [21].

	Italy	EU 27
Energy consumption * [toe/toutput] (without feedstock)	1.38 0.37	1.31 0.42
Emissions * [tCO2/toutput]	0.64	1.2
Emission intensity * [tCO2/toe]	1.74	2.84

* The output is expressed in terms of tonnes of ethylene equivalent.

. While a direct comparison is not feasible as each industry may include different products and processes, the table highlights a strong performance by the Italian C&P industry in both areas.

4. Decarbonisation Routes

4.1. Energy Efficiency Enhancement

The Italian C&P industry has significantly reduced its energy consumption despite being a highly energy-intensive sector. Figure 4 illustrates the historical trends in energy consumption and CO₂ emissions for the C&P industry in Italy and Europe (as defined by NACE C20) from 2000 to 2019. The Italian C&P industry follows a similar energy consumption trajectory to the European sector but has recorded much lower CO₂ emissions than the European average. Data from 2020 and 2021—reported here for completeness—indicate an increase in both energy consumption (0.40 toe/t_output in 2020 and 0.48 toe/t_output in 2021) and CO₂ emissions (0.60 t_CO2/t_output in 2020 and 0.85 t_CO2/t_output in 2021) values for the Italian industry, likely as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic [21].

Due to the considerable diversity and complexity of the C&P sector, it was not practical for this study to provide a comprehensive overview of all the technologies employed to enhance energy efficiency. The InduCO project [28] reviewed the energy-efficiency-enhancing interventions implemented between 2005 and 2015 by a sample of chemical manufacturers. The interventions primarily included the installation of more efficient compressors (inverters), production lines upgrades, and heat recovery from production line streams and flue gases. While the application of CHP was not included in the InduCO review, it plays a key role in the C&P industry where it has already been adopted to a large extent. In 2013, approximately 50 CHP units were installed in the Italian chemical industry, with a total capacity of almost 4 GWe [6].

The energy savings identified among the InduCO manufacturers sample were extrapolated to the broader Italian C&P industry (NACE C20). As of 2017, the potential to reduce electrical and thermal energy consumption was estimated at 9.2% and 5.6%, respectively [28]. However, it is highly probable that these reductions have largely been realised in light of the industry’s concerted efforts.

According to Federchimica, the Italian chemical industry federation, energy consumption in the Italian C&P industry (NACE C20) improved by more than 50% between 2000 and 2018 [23,34]; similarly, energy efficiency improved by more than 40%, surpassing the original EU target for 2030 (32.5%). Moreover, the use of fossil fuels as feedstock fell by 32% between 1990 and 2018, marking a significant improvement in specific consumption [35]; CO₂ emissions decreased by 54% over the same period. This reduction exceeds the original objective set by the European Union for 2030 (40%), before the introduction of the revised Green Deal, and is on track to meet the new goal of 55%. However, lower production levels may have contributed significantly to the decrease in CO₂ emissions during the period considered (see Figure 5). A preliminary correlation analysis revealed a weak negative relationship between CO₂ emissions and production levels in both the basic chemicals sector and the C&P industry overall. In contrast, a positive correlation was found for the chemical sector as defined by NACE C20. Nevertheless, identifying the main factors influencing CO₂ reductions is challenging, highlighting the need for further research into correlation–causality analyses. Minor discrepancies in the reported values for performance improvement may arise from differences in the underlying assumptions across datasets, which are not always clearly documented or accessible.

4.2. Waste Recovery and Utilisation

Novel circular economy technologies have been recognised as a promising means of reducing energy use and carbon emissions in the C&P industry [8,36]. Treating waste as a valuable resource for recovering materials or energy helps minimise the usage of basic raw materials and saves resources. In 2022, the majority of the waste generated in the chemical sector was recycled (34.2%) or allocated for environmental restoration (18.1%) [37]. The rest of the waste was disposed of in landfills (14.9%), underwent chemical, physical or biological treatment (14.4%), was incinerated (4.8%) or underwent other treatments (13.6%). Between 2015 and 2022, the proportion of waste that was recycled increased by 11.5 percentage points. At the same time, the amount of waste generated during chemical production decreased by 17.5% compared to 2020 and 7.9% compared to 2021.

Plastic waste recycling in the C&P sector has gained increasing attention, with two main approaches being proposed: mechanical and chemical. Mechanical recycling involves the conversion of plastic waste into secondary raw materials/products without chemically altering the structure of the substance or its polymer chains. Chemical recycling, in contrast, is used to convert larger polymeric chains into a variety of valuable chemicals [38]. Chemical recycling technologies (also known as feedstock recycling) have considerable potential to reduce both the amount of plastic waste delivered to landfills [8,33] and the amount of primary feedstock required for chemical production. An overview of the different approaches to chemical recycling (e.g., chemolysis, chemical depolymerisation, gasification, pyrolysis and hydrogenation) and their advantages and disadvantages is provided in Liu et al. [38].

Italy has made significant commitments to R&D in chemical recycling and waste-to-chemicals conversion, as demonstrated by the number of patents [23] and industrial research activities undertaken thus far [39]. Advancements in the Italian C&P industry include producing phosphorus from waste, recovering low-quality waste not suitable for mechanical recycling through chemical recycling, ensuring that products are easily recyclable, deriving polymers from post-consumer plastics, and extracting hydrocarbons from plastic waste for use in virgin plastics.

Of particular interest is an R&D project led by Versalis, a chemical subsidiary of Eni, which involves the construction of a demonstration plant in Mantova with the capacity to handle 6000 tonnes of secondary raw materials. The plant will be based on Hoop^® technology, a proprietary chemical recycling technology intended to turn mixed plastic waste into raw materials for the production of virgin polymers [40]. Versalis has already built a plastics mechanical recycling plant in Porto Marghera to produce styrenic polymers and is considering building a plant to produce isopropyl alcohol, for which there is currently no domestic production. A hydrogen-producing facility has also been proposed to support the isopropyl alcohol plant [41].

As another example, LyondellBasell opened a pilot plant in Ferrara in 2020 based on its proprietary MoReTec advanced recycling technology, which uses pyrolysis to restore post-consumer plastic waste to its molecular state for use as a feedstock for new plastics. With a daily processing capacity of 5 to 10 kilogrammes of household plastic waste, the pilot plant is testing different catalysts and seeks to understand how different waste types interact in the molecular recycling process [42]. Following the achievements of the pilot plant in Italy, an industrial-scale advanced recycling plant was built in Germany [43].

4.3. Electrification

The C&P industry presents considerable opportunity for decarbonisation through electrification [5,44], as electricity can be integrated into existing chemical processes in several ways [45]. Heat derived from fossil fuels could be replaced with resistive heating, for example, which entails generating heat as the result of resistance faced by an electrical current flowing through a material. This power-to-heat solution is a recognised alternative to boiler steam generation [45] and is particularly pertinent in the Italian C&P sector, where steam processing is a major energy-consuming activity. In 2019, steam generation accounted for almost 44% of the final energy utilised by the Italian C&P industry.

The use of electricity in power-to-heat applications offers several advantages. First, a broad spectrum of temperatures can be generated, allowing for faster, more even heating and leading to the development of smaller, adaptable, highly sensitive reactors. Second, a fast response time is a benefit in terms of demand-side management, as it offers enhanced flexibility and can exploit periods of low electricity prices [27]. However, an impediment to electrical systems arises when extremely high temperatures are needed, as they are technically constrained (technology readiness level [TRL] of 7) or may be less cost-competitive than fossil-fuel-fired systems [27,46]. Adoption of electrical systems may also impact the availability of surplus steam currently produced in some petrochemical processes, leading to an increased requirement for heat [27]. Electricity-driven solutions, such as heat pumps or mechanical vapour recompression, could be considered to provide heat up to 200 °C. Steam recompression, however, requires a significant investment and is presently only suitable for large integrated sites with a steam consumption of at least 25 t/h [27].

The chemical industry is also exploring the use of inductive and microwave heating. Although the initial results and applications have been promising, there are several obstacles that prevent widespread commercial implementation, including difficulties in scaling up the reactor and ensuring the compatibility of materials [46]. Electricity can be applied via electrochemistry (i.e., converting electricity to chemical energy) or alternative forms of energy (e.g., ultrasound and plasma). Electrochemical techniques have been effectively used on a large scale for processes such as the production of chlorine and have the potential to be adopted for smaller-scale processes such as perchlorate production, ozone production and HCl recycling [46]. Before electrochemical processes can be widely implemented in chemical production, however, certain challenges must be addressed, such as long-term declines in performance and the development of materials and reactors that are as effective at producing desired products as traditional methods [46]. Plasma-enabled electrification provides an alternative route for using electricity in chemical production. Though it has not yet reached industrial maturity, it has potential in several key chemical processes [46], including ammonia synthesis [47] and the conversion of methane into higher hydrocarbons [48].

Several R&D initiatives seeking to electrify key processes in the C&P sector are underway. One example is the electrification of steam cracking, a process that is widely used in the production of ethylene and other high value chemicals and aromatics needed in the production of plastics. Several organisations have launched initiatives to overcome the feasibility and technological maturity issues. The Cracker of the Future consortium, formed in 2021, seeks to develop new technologies to electrify the steam cracking process [49]; in 2022, Shell Chemicals and Dow initiated an experimental campaign to electrically heat steam cracker furnaces [50]. Electrified steam cracking is expected to be commercially accessible by 2030 and achieve up to 95% efficiency (compared to 40% for its existing fossil fuel-based counterparts) [51].

In the Italian C&P industry, electrification requires careful evaluation of the trade-offs. Limitations in terms of cost, viability and availability of technologies exist today for many processes, such as steam reforming, cracking or heating of limestone (i.e., use of electroplates for the production of sodium carbonate and bicarbonate), but these limitations may be addressed over time, making these solutions more feasible [33].

4.4. Hydrogen

Hydrogen is widely used as a raw material in oil refining and the production of basic chemicals. Together with the refining sector, the C&P industry accounts for the majority of the hydrogen production and consumption in Italy. The refining industry accounted for approximately 80% of the total hydrogen output in 2022, followed by the C&P industry with 15% [52].

The chemical industry has broad expertise in hydrogen generation, transportation and utilisation in both production processes and boilers and furnaces (up to 20% concentration by volume). Hydrogen is predominantly produced via steam methane reforming (SMR) and the alkaline electrolysis of chlorine, potassium and fluorine. Approximately 13% of the hydrogen produced in the C&P industry in 2022 was used in ammonia production; it is also widely used in the production of hydrogen peroxide and chlorinated compounds. Hydrogen can also be a byproduct of petrochemical production. The ethane steam cracking process, for instance, yields hydrogen that is utilised for ethylene production [30].

One of the ongoing R&D initiatives related to hydrogen production in Italy is a collaboration between Solway and Sapio. Known as Hydrogen Valley Rosignano, a plant for the large-scale production of H2 is set to open in 2026 and will play a crucial role in the decarbonisation of Solvay’s peroxides production [53]. One approach to decarbonisation through hydrogen is to replace fossil-fuel-derived hydrogen already utilised in the sector with sustainable hydrogen, known as ‘green hydrogen’ [30]. As a result, there is significant interest in hydrogen generation systems that utilise biomass or biological methods, although the research is in its preliminary phases [5]. A more mature alternative low-carbon pathway is using green hydrogen produced by water electrolysis, which is being investigated for the synthesis of BTX, olefins and ammonia.

Mobil has proposed a methanol-to-aromatics process for BTX in which green-hydrogen-based methanol is converted into a range of aromatic compounds through the use of a zeolite catalyst. Although these novel production processes are fairly advanced technologically, they are not yet market-ready [27]. Furthermore, no methanol production plants are currently in operation in Italy. However, several initiatives have been undertaken to boost bio-methanol production, particularly from biogas and waste streams, with several plants already in operation or under development [54]. By contrast, the process that directly uses hydrogen and CO₂ to produce olefins is at a particularly low TRL at present [27].

Green hydrogen has also been considered for low-carbon ammonia synthesis. However, in addition to an electrolyser, an air separation unit is also needed in ammonia production. This is because the supply of pure nitrogen, due to oxygen consumption of processed air in the secondary reformer, becomes unavailable, and a certain level of heat integration is lost in such a setup. This combination of electrolysis and ammonia synthesis is not yet commercially viable. Additionally, when ammonia is produced in this manner, the CO₂ previously generated in the reforming stage would no longer be available for downstream processes and would need to be sourced elsewhere. The CO₂ produced during SMR is used either within the same production cycle or for the synthesis of other end products (e.g., urea, dry ice and gas mixtures) [27,55].

Importantly, utilising green hydrogen for process heat production at concentrations exceeding 20% may raise economic and technical concerns due to its high costs and the need for burner replacement and plant modifications, as well as potential increases in NO_x emissions [30]. Direct electrification should be preferred over hydrogen as a means of energy supply wherever feasible, as hydrogen is currently less energy efficient [5].

4.5. Biomass-Based Solutions

Biomass could also be a viable, emissions-friendly substitute for fossil fuels in both energy and feedstock applications in the C&P industry. For fuel application, biofuels could be used in both boilers and furnaces. There are also a series of bio-based alternatives to primary petrochemicals, such as bio-olefins and bio-aromatics [18].

Bio-olefins have applications in the bioplastics production, among other uses. Extensive research has been conducted on the ethanol dehydration process for bio-ethylene production, including improving the production process, understanding the reaction mechanism and selecting catalysts to enhance its cost-effectiveness and suitability for industrial use [56,57]. The primary obstacle facing bio-ethylene production processes is the limited availability of bio-feedstocks, namely bio-ethanol. In the EU, the manufacturing of bio-ethanol often involves a blend of sugar beets and wheat [58], making it dependent on sugar production costs [59].

Lignocellulosic materials are an attractive alternative because of their availability and affordability, although their conversion into ethanol poses several challenges [60]. POET-DSM’s Project LIBERTY in the United States and GranBio in Brazil have successfully demonstrated the feasibility of producing lignocellulosic bio-ethanol on a large scale [58]. Bio-methanol and bio-dimethyl ether (DME) can be used as raw materials to produce bio-ethylene via the methanol-to-olefin and DME-to-olefin processes, respectively [61]. Although there has been positive evidence of the commercial applicability of these processes, progress has been restricted by the scarcity of the necessary bio-methanol and bio-DME feedstocks.

Several processes are being considered for the production of bio-propylene [62], including glycerol-to-olefin (GTO) and bio-olefin metathesis, the latter of which is already being used commercially. GTO processes have shown promise in generating bio-propylene, albeit only at the laboratory scale [61,62]. However, the limited availability of bio-feedstocks once again represents a major challenge [61].

For the bio-based synthesis of butadiene, the Lebedev and Ostromisslenski methods have garnered significant interest, with bio-ethanol as the most viable feedstock [61]. A significant amount of research has been focused on developing these methods into economically viable technologies that can compete with current butadiene production methods [63]. Significant barriers include catalytic deactivation issues and increased formation of by-products. Butadiene can also be obtained from bio-butanols and bio-butanediols, which are produced through biomass fermentation or gasification [61]. As with other olefins, the limited availability of bio-feedstocks is a major obstacle for future industrial applications.

Biomass is also seen as a viable option for producing BTX through both gasification and pyrolysis [64,65]. Biomass gasification transforms syngas into BTX, generating either olefins through biomass Fischer–Tropsch synthesis or methanol/DME through the bio-methanol to bio-aromatics route [65]. Because fast pyrolysis yields only a limited quantity of BTX, the addition of other processes, including catalytic cracking, hydrodeoxygenation, catalytic fast hydropyrolysis and catalytic fast pyrolysis, has been widely studied [66]. Another possible method for BTX production from biomass is hydrolysis fermentation [65]. The production of BTX from biomass has already been successfully implemented commercially. A plant in Ontario, commissioned in 2023, converts biomass into chloromethyl furfural and then into p-xylene [67]. Anellotech’s demonstration unit in Texas showcased the commercial viability of their technology for producing BTX from biomass [68].

The Italian C&P industry is investing heavily in R&D for bio-based chemical goods, such as bioplastics, indicating a strong focus on using biomass and renewable sources in the manufacturing of chemicals and fuels. The Novamont Mater-Biopolymer plant in Patrica (Frosinone), for example, is focused on the production of biodegradable and compostable bioplastics and biopolyesters [69]. The Novamont Mater-Biotech plant in Bottrighe (Rovigo) is dedicated to using bacteria for the industrial-scale production of bio-butanediol from sugars [70]. Versalis is actively manufacturing bio-ethanol from lignocellulosic biomass at the Crescentino (Vercelli) facility using Proesa^® technology [71]. The Matrìca plants in Porto Torres are obtaining bioproducts using highly sustainable techniques, resulting in low environmental impacts [72].

4.6. CCUS

The final potential solution for decarbonising the C&P industry is CCUS technology [64,73,74]. Carbon capture storage could be applied to existing production processes for which decarbonisation via hydrogen or direct electrification is not yet feasible, serving as an interim solution [8]. It could be integrated into processes involving steam methane reforming for (blue) hydrogen production, for example, providing an economic advantage [8,75].

The TRL of the different carbon capture technology types (i.e., absorption, adsorption, membranes, solid looping) vary, ranging from 2 to 9, with an average TRL for all capture technologies of 6 [76]. The number of carbon capture technologies tested under industrial conditions is significantly lower than the number of stand-alone capture technologies. Carbon capture applied to ammonia and hydrogen production has a TRL of approximately 8.

Captured CO₂ can be utilised as a novel means of producing chemicals. It can be recycled as feedstock or raw material and replace fossil fuels in industrial processes to produce carbon-based chemicals, polymers and synthetic fuels [77]. Certain technologies for the utilisation of recovered CO₂ as a raw material are already technologically mature and can be easily implemented in established markets, such as the use of CO₂ to enhance urea production. In contrast, other technologies are still in prospective or pilot/demonstration phases and require additional development to achieve commercial viability [76], such as the application of carbon capture utilisation (CCU) to the dry carbonate process for sodium bicarbonate production [78]. The CCU strategy would require novel chemistry and catalysts; furthermore, low-carbon hydrogen and energy inputs will be required for product synthesis as they will no longer be derived from fossil-fuel hydrocarbons [79]. CCU technologies are typically assumed to have an average TRL of 6, though it can vary greatly. Their application to urea production, for example, has a TRL of 9, while the application to methanol and synthetic liquid hydrocarbons production has TRLs of 8 and 6, respectively [76].

There are several active R&D initiatives in Italy focusing on the capture and recovery/processing of CO₂ for raw materials or consumer products [39]. The use of CCUS remains an option, but adequate evaluation is necessary to determine its reasonable contribution to the decarbonisation of the C&P sector. An assessment conducted by Boston Consulting reported that CCUS is unlikely to have a significant impact on reducing carbon emissions in the C&P sector by 2050 compared to other possible solutions [33].

5. Discussion

The Italian C&P sector has made significant progress in terms of decarbonisation, adopting a range of strategies to enhance energy efficiency and recover and utilise waste. However, achieving complete decarbonisation of the sector by 2050 may be a daunting target. The challenges associated with the set of decarbonisation options identified in Section 4 extend beyond the technological aspects that were discussed previously.

One such challenge to decarbonisation strategy adoption is resistance from stakeholders within the C&P industry itself due to perceived anticipated negative consequences. Investments in these innovative solutions may be hindered by the fact that many carbon-intensive chemical products (e.g., ethylene) with large production volumes have comparatively limited profit margins [46]. The organisational structure of the Italian C&P industry may also affect its willingness to implement significant changes. Italy’s C&P industry is characterised by a significant number of small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), despite the presence of large companies. Although the entire industry may experience some difficulties in implementing decarbonisation technologies, SMEs may be more likely to struggle to promptly and effectively implement new business models or modify product designs due to their limited product lines and reliance on individual chemicals.

Another challenge is the long lifespan of industrial equipment; meticulous planning is needed prior to replacement to avoid prolonged production disruptions. Risks associated with ‘first-of-a-kind’ solutions and scaling up further complicate the transition towards low-carbon practices. Implementation of these new technologies may require the redesign of energy carrier or feedstock supply systems, along with the modification of existing process equipment. Significant restructuring of supply systems represents a major barrier to decarbonisation measures, especially for SMEs [80]. Due to the mass and energy flow integration within the existing chemical manufacturing processes, adjustments may also be needed in downstream processes, resulting in additional expenses and delays. Designing, implementing and maintaining such changes will require specialised expertise and a skilled workforce, imposing an additional burden on the industry (especially for SMEs) and potentially affecting the labour market.

Another requirement for the prospective decarbonisation of the C&P industry is access to the necessary green energy and feedstock sources. The decarbonisation solutions reviewed require electricity and hydrogen to be produced entirely from renewable sources if significant emissions reductions are to be achieved. Estimates from Cefic suggest that the annual electricity demand of the European chemical sector could reach 500 TWh by 2050 [7], representing a threefold increase from the 170 TWh demand in 2019 [5]. This increased demand, together with the anticipated rises in electricity demand due to decarbonisation in other industries, may exceed the availability of renewable energy.

Similarly, the availability of biomass for both energy and feedstock applications represents a significant challenge, driven by substantial demand for the limited supply of primary biomass resources. Biomass needs to be supplied in a sustainable manner. Given the expected increase in bioplastic production, competition with the food supply must be managed, alongside efforts to reduce land usage, agricultural greenhouse gas emissions, deforestation and the deterioration of ecosystems and biodiversity [81]. Cefic estimations suggest that the total demand for biomass from the European C&P sector will reach 124 Mt by 2050, up from 4 Mt in 2019 [7]. As other industries also depend on this same scarce resource, its use may become economically unfeasible [5]. The increasing demand for biomass requires a careful assessment of trade-offs, and its use should be prioritised in contexts that provide the highest economic advantage and the smallest environmental impact [5]. Biomass availability issues may be addressed, however, by exploring diverse locally sourced lignocellulosic feedstocks, organic waste and algae, and improving plastic recyclability [82].

The transition to a green C&P industry will necessitate a significant adaptation of existing infrastructures and the development of new ones. The transition to direct electrification and green hydrogen will require comprehensive grid development that increases renewable capacity and resilience. The electricity network will need important upgrades, as it was not designed to handle the massive amount of renewable energy that will be required for the C&P and other hard-to-decarbonise industries. These perspective interventions should be accompanied by better integration and planning between DSO and TSO [83], ensuring that the industry’s energy security is not compromised.

Significant expansion of renewable energy capacity in the forthcoming decades may require the C&P industry to operate in a more flexible manner within a range of loads in order to manage the volatility of a renewable electricity supply [84]. While electrified chemical processes in the industrial sector could be used as a demand-side management strategy [84], the technical challenges associated with this requirement for increased flexibility are significant. The C&P industry is generally characterised by large plants (e.g., petrochemical plants) that operate without interruption within a limited load range, though batch processes in the pharmaceutical industry may exhibit greater flexibility. The requirement for flexibility in plant operations will influence the design and implementation of industrial processes, as the flexibility of a unit may be constrained by its connections to other units through energy and material streams [85]. The seasonality of biomass and variability in origin and type mean that feedstock flexibility will also need to be considered [84].

Hydrogen transportation and storage networks will also be crucial for the decarbonisation of the C&P sector. Italy intends to utilise its current gas infrastructure for the delivery and storage of hydrogen, commencing with an initial 2% hydrogen-gas blending by volume. Concentrations of up to 10% by volume in the current natural gas transportation and distribution networks present significant potential. Substantial investment will likely be necessary to address issues such as material and device degradation, the need for recalibration and the adaptation or replacement of gas detectors within the Italian natural gas grid [86].

A number of initiatives for hydrogen production and transportation have already been undertaken across Europe. Germany, for example, is building a number of hydrogen hubs to facilitate the production, storage and transportation of hydrogen (e.g., the Hamburg Green Hydrogen Hub, HyBayern in Bavaria and the Eastern German hydrogen hub). These hubs are strategically positioned across the country to support various sectors. Italy plans to develop similar ‘hydrogen valleys’ where production and consumption of hydrogen will coexist, setting up hydrogen hubs in 52 locations. The initial target is 5 GW of electrolyser capacity by 2030 [87].

Safety is a critical factor in the operation of hydrogen transport networks, as well as during the production and storage phases. While hydrogen is not inherently more hazardous than traditional fuels, certain characteristics, such as hydrogen’s flammability limits, increase the risk of accidents in the event of a leak and necessitate complex design and safety measures [86]. Safety concerns may lead to increased public opposition to hydrogen development.

Implementation of CCUS will require the development of appropriate infrastructure, specifically a transport network that will transfer CO₂ captured from generation facilities to locations for reuse or storage. The construction of these storage locations may raise concerns in terms of social acceptability, representing another obstacle for CCUS deployment [88]. Italy is involved in several initiatives for the development of CCUS infrastructure that are currently underway in the Mediterranean basin, including EU Projects of Common Interest (PCI; i.e., Callisto Mediterranean CO₂ Network, Augusta C2 and Prinos CO₂ storage). Ascertaining if the existing storage capacity will adequately accommodate the CO₂ captured from the C&P industry and other industries, such as the cement industry, will be critical. Two potential carbon storage sites—Ravenna Hub and Jonio Hub—were identified in an analysis of oil and gas fields [89].

The CCUS hub concept serves as a noteworthy form of CCUS infrastructure that will reduce the costs and perceived high risks associated with CCUS implementation through shared infrastructure. A CCUS hub facilitates connections between a cluster of emitters and transport and storage developers. Examples of these hubs throughout Europe include the Porthos hub in the Netherlands, the Longship in Norway, the Coda Terminal in Iceland and the Pycasso and Dunkirk hubs in France [76]. The UK has also made significant progress in creating a commercial case for CCUS by identifying industrial clusters that could be decarbonised via shared transport and storage infrastructures [90].

Another key barrier to the affordability and sustainability of C&P sector decarbonisation are the expected increased costs associated with the adoption of prospective decarbonisation technologies. Today, electrified solutions have higher capital expenditure costs than those based on fossil fuels. The higher price of electricity compared to natural gas also makes operating costs substantially higher [80]. This is particularly true in Italy, which has a relatively high industrial electricity price in comparison to other European countries [91]. This disparity results from the link between electricity and natural gas prices, the impact of the EU ETS on electricity prices, and the presence of taxes and levies. High electricity prices, along with the initial cost of electrolysis equipment, will also impact the availability of green hydrogen at competitive prices [86]. Achieving net-zero emissions in the global C&P industry through biomass feedback and material recycling alone is expected to increase capital expenditures by approximately a third [92]. Deploying CCUS technologies will entail additional costs as well [15,93]. Rough estimates suggest the costs of carbon capture in hard-to abate industries (e.g., iron and steel, chemical and cement) will be between EUR 40 and EUR 90 per tonne of CO₂ [76].

These cost increase, in addition to the infrastructure upgrade and development costs outlined above, will impact the affordability of the final products. The cost of green ammonia production, for instance, is expected to rise by 13–41% by 2030 [94] and to become competitive by 2050 [95]. Using a decarbonised steam cracking route or methanol-to-olefin process to produce olefins and aromatics could result in a significant cost increase of 50–220% by 2050 [95]. Although some of these figures are not specific to Italy, they provide insight into the anticipated cost escalation related to low-carbon chemical production.

A comprehensive framework of industrial strategies and policy support mechanisms is needed to facilitate the low-carbon transition of the C&P sector. Such policies should target both production (and related infrastructures) and final use. On the production side, policies such as capital expenditure incentives, power purchase agreements and contracts for difference could reduce investment costs and help manage energy expenses, facilitating the adoption of decarbonisation technologies. The Sustainable Energy Production and Climate Transition (SDE++) funding scheme in the Netherlands, which supports the large-scale deployment of several green technologies, is an example of this type of policy support [96]. Germany similarly has several funding initiatives aimed at promoting green technologies and low-carbon solutions, including a ‘climate contracts for difference’ programme designed to reimburse energy-intensive industries for the additional expenses incurred when transitioning to low-carbon production processes, such as utilising green hydrogen [97].

A reform of the energy tariff mechanism would effectively redistribute fiscal and parafiscal components, such as emissions trading and general system charges, while rebalancing the link between electricity and gas prices [80]. Support for R&D initiatives may aid in the advancement towards technological maturity for the most novel solutions.

On the final user’s side, establishing standards or minimum legal limits for higher-cost green chemicals to promote the development of a market could be crucial for facilitating the decarbonisation of the C&P industry and reducing risks for companies investing in climate-friendly solutions. The public sector can significantly influence sustainability by establishing stringent criteria for public procurement contracts, known as green public procurement [81]. Establishing a market for secondary raw materials and bioplastics—facilitated by the improved standardisation of polymers—would accelerate the adoption of these products as substitutes for virgin fossil plastics. Public opposition to decarbonisation technologies (e.g., hydrogen and CCUS) may be mitigated by enhancing awareness and acceptance through informative campaigns aimed at educating local communities about protective and mitigation strategies intended to minimise any risks [86].

Finally, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), set to be implemented in 2026, aims to address unfair competition from lower-cost foreign producers, protecting European industrial entities that adopt decarbonisation measures that lead to increased product prices [98]. This kind of policy support will be crucial if the Italian C&P industry is to effectively engage in decarbonisation while preserving its competitiveness at both the national and global levels.

6. Concluding Remarks

This paper provides an up-to-date picture of the production processes, energy consumption and carbon footprint of the Italian C&P industry, with a particular emphasis on the basic chemicals sector. It reviewed the potential decarbonisation options for the C&P industry, focusing on those reducing Scope 1 emissions (specifically combustion emissions). The identified options fell into six categories: energy efficiency enhancement, waste recovery and utilisation, electrification, hydrogen, biomass and CCUS. The information gathered by this review can assist key players and decision-makers in conducting country-level evaluations and scenario analyses to develop decarbonisation pathways for the Italian C&P industry.

According to the data reviewed, the Italian C&P industry is one of the most efficient in Europe, having been actively involved in initiatives aimed at enhancing energy efficiency and reducing emissions for several years. Between 1990 and 2018, its CO_2eq emissions decreased by over 50%, exceeding the EU’s initial target of a 40% reduction by 2030 (prior to the Green Deal’s implementation) and on target to meet the revised goal of 55%. Despite the increased energy efficiency, it is uncertain whether the Italian C&P industry will be able to meet the EU’s designated carbon emission reduction targets by 2050 by relying on the decarbonisation approaches of improved energy efficiency and waste reduction and utilisation alone. It will likely be necessary to combine a number of decarbonisation technologies, each with their own degree of suitability and distinct contribution.

Electrification and hydrogen-based solutions have been recognised as possible drivers for the decarbonisation of the C&P industry but there remain limitations in terms of cost, feasibility and the availability of technologies. The implementation of these solutions may be restricted by their integration with downstream processes and will require adjustments to existing setups and operational procedures. While biomass represents a viable alternative to fossil fuels in energy and feedstock applications, issues regarding availability need to be addressed. CCUS is another prospective solution but more evaluation is required to determine its feasibility and ultimate impact on the decarbonisation of the C&P sector.

The obstacles to implementing these decarbonisation solutions are not just technical. Key constraints that could hamper uptake include the high initial investment and increased operating costs. If electrification and hydrogen-based solutions are to significantly reduce emissions, electricity and hydrogen must be produced solely from renewable energy sources. However, renewable energy sources may not be readily available in sufficient amounts. The electricity grid will also require major improvements as it was not built to support the renewable capacity required by the decarbonisation of the industrial sector. The development of networks for the delivery and storage of hydrogen and captured CO₂ will also be essential, again requiring significant investment.

The C&P industry will also have to cope with an urgent demand for increased operational flexibility to assist in balancing fluctuations in the power supply (e.g., by using electrified chemical processes as a demand-side management solution). This requirement for greater flexibility in chemical processes will impact the design, redesign and implementation of processes as a unit’s flexibility may be limited by its interconnections with other units via energy and material streams.

Industrial strategies and policy support will be instrumental in facilitating the low-carbon transition within the Italian C&P sector, particularly given the large presence of SMEs. Smaller firms may be more reluctant to implement radical changes to their manufacturing processes. Support strategies should minimise investment costs and help manage energy expenses (e.g., power purchase agreements and contracts for difference), and R&D should be supported to enhance the technical maturity of cutting-edge technologies. Regulatory, economic and protective actions will help foster a market for green chemicals. Protecting the Italian (and European) chemical market against lower-cost foreign competitors (e.g., through the proposed CBAM) represents an attempt to reduce unfair competition. A robust policy and support framework will enable Italy’s C&P industry to actively engage in decarbonisation while preserving its national and global competitiveness, assuming that all technical challenges are addressed and the necessary energy and feedstock resources are accessible.