For the reasonable evaluation of the operation status and energy-saving effects of power transmission/distribution systems, the analytic hierarchy process was combined with the entropy weight method for the weighting and a cloud model was applied for comprehensive benefit evaluation in this paper. Consequently, a regional transmission and distribution power grid in Wuhan was taken as an example, and parameter optimization was carried out to explore the feasibility of the above evaluation system in practical application.
3.1. Designing of Indicators for Evaluation Systems
In this paper, a case study of a power transmission/distribution system in a certain area of Wuhan in central China is utilized for analysis. Voltage level and the length of lines, as well as number of substations in 2022, are shown in
Table 1. In order to understand the operational efficiencies of the power grid clearly, the definitions and calculations of the indicators above were obtained from Equations (6) to (21). Thus, the performance of the designated area could be obtained accordingly, and the results are shown in
Table 2. It can be observed that the operation efficiencies of 2022 were acceptable on the whole, yet there were still some indexes that could be further optimized to realize higher benefits, such as supply radius qualification rate, the proportion of reactive power compensation capacity, and the comprehensive line loss rate of the substation area. Based on the parameters of 2022, technological upgrades were adopted to achieve energy conservation, including adjusting the number of main transformers, using energy-saving equipment, etc., and the performance of 2023 can be observed in
Table 2.
For the evaluation of the performance of the power grid and the effects of the technological upgrades, types of indexes were first divided into three parts—power grid lines, transformers, and substations—containing the specific indexes of Y1~Y7, H1~H5, and Z1~Z4, respectively. Subsequent calculations and the optimization of the analytic hierarchy process combined with the entropy weight method, as well as the cloud model, were established based on the indexes above.
The supply radius qualification rate is as follows (Y
1):
where A
1 represents the number of qualified power supply lines and B
1 is the number of total lines.
The rate of economic operation lines is as follows (Y
2):
where A
2 represents the number of economic operation lines.
The qualification rate of line loss for a single line is as follows (Y
3):
where A
3 represents the number of qualified lines of line loss.
The qualification rate of the main trunk line cross-sections is as follows (Y
4):
where A
4 represents the number of lines within the cross-sectional area range that meet industry-standard energy efficiency.
The proportion of new energy-saving conductors is calculated as follows (Y
5):
where A
5 represents the length of new energy-saving conductors and B
2 is the total length of lines.
The qualified rate of the total capacity of line access and distribution is as follows (Y
6):
where A
6 represents the qualified line for connecting to the total distribution capacity.
The comprehensive non-loss line loss rate is calculated as follows (Y
7):
where C
1 represents the electricity sold from the grid and D
1 is the total meter power supply of the transformer, except for lossless electricity.
The qualification rate of the power factor in the distribution is calculated as follows (H
1):
where Kφ represents the number of transformers required for the load power factor and K
Σ is the total number of transformers in the line.
The economic operation ratio of distribution transformers is calculated as follows (H
2):
where G
2 represents the numbers transformers in economic operation and K
1 represents the total number of transformers.
The proportion of reactive power compensation capacity is calculated as follows (H
3):
where G
3 represents reactive power compensation capacity and K
2 is the reactive power compensation capacity that should be configured.
The proportion of high-energy-consuming distribution transformers is calculated as follows (H
4):
where G
4 represents the number of high-energy-consuming transformers.
The average loss rate of the distribution transformers is calculated as follows (H
5):
where P
oz and P
kz represent the iron loss and the variable loss, respectively; S
N is the rated capacity of the transformer; cosθ is the power factor; and b is the load factor.
The qualification rate of the substation supply radius is calculated as follows (Z
1):
where F
1 represents the number of substations with qualified supply radius and E
1 is the total number of substations.
The qualification rate of the substation main trunk line cross-sections is calculated as follows (Z
2):
where F
2 represents the number of substations with qualified main trunks.
The comprehensive line loss rate of the substation area is calculated as follows (Z
3):
where G
1 represents the total electricity sales volume of the substations.
The qualification rate of individual substation line losses is calculated as follows (Z
4):
where F
4 represents the number of qualified substations with line loss.
3.2. Performance Optimization and Energy-Saving Research
In this section, the calculation of the power grid system is first undertaken using the analytic hierarchy process and the entropy weight method for the combined weighting, and then the cloud model is used for further evaluation. As shown in
Table 3, it can be observed that the combined weightings of the first-level indexes did not exhibit a notable difference, yet the substations had the greatest impact on the comprehensive benefits of the power grid system with a value of 0.3739. In addition, the combined weightings of the second-level indexes were also calculated, and it could be obtained that the combined weightings of the indexes were generally similar, while the comprehensive non-loss line loss rate, average loss rate of distribution transformers, and comprehensive line loss rate of the substation area showed the most significant effects on the indexes of power grid lines, transformers, and substations, respectively, providing strategies for the optimization of the performance and the improvement of the comprehensive benefits of the power grid system.
In order to evaluate the operational effectiveness of the transmission and distribution grid appropriately, the comprehensive benefits of the system in the designated area were divided into five levels with an evaluation interval of [0, 100]. The specific parameters of the cloud model for each level were determined according to Equation (4), and the results are shown in
Table 4. Accordingly, the standard cloud of the comprehensive benefit evaluation could be obtained with the aggregation of several droplets in the intervals above, and the results are displayed in
Figure 1.
Based on this, for the direct evaluation of the performance of the power grid system, we organized the quantitative indicators and the qualitative indicators into a comprehensive benefit evaluation matrix, and then calculated the corresponding normal cloud model parameters for each indicator through the reverse cloud generator. Then, the comprehensive cloud model parameters could be determined through the weightings of the indicator layer and the criterion layer, as well as the calculation of Equation (5). The corresponding results are shown in
Table 5 and further displayed as cloud maps (
Figure 2) through the program of MATLAB. It can be seen that the expected values (Ex) of not only each classification indicator, but also the comprehensive benefits increased to a certain extent. Since the comprehensive benefit was calculated based on the first-level indexes with the corresponding weightings, the increase could reflect the improvement in the whole system, including the aspects of power grid lines, transformers, and substations. Therefore, the increase in comprehensive benefits was calculated according to Equation (22), and the results showed that the technical transformation realized an overall increase of around 5.4% compared to 2022. Moreover, a similarity calculation was undertaken according to previous reports [
25,
26], and the results are shown in
Table 6. It can be obtained from the combined results of
Figure 2 and
Table 6 that the evaluation level of the comprehensive benefits in 2022 can be considered as level III, and the benefits were upgraded to level IV with the technical transformation, demonstrating that the effective renovation of the power grid in the designated area remarkably improved the comprehensive benefits of the system’s operation.
Furthermore, in order to validate the reliability of the evaluation results of the model in this paper, a sensitivity analysis on the changes in model parameters was conducted with the perturbation analysis method [
27]. In brief, weightings (
) of the 16 evaluation indicators (Y
1~Y
7, H
1~H
5, Z
1~Z
4) were adjusted by changing the disturbance coefficient (δ), and specific calculations were completed using Equations (23)–(26). Among them, δ values were set as 0.9 and 1.1, and the subsequent perturbations were performed accordingly. As shown in
Table 7, it can be observed that the comprehensive results were not sensitive to the changes in weightings within a reasonable range, indicating that the model constructed in this study displayed outstanding reliability in evaluating the comprehensive benefits of the power transmission/distribution system.
t ≠ i, t = 1, 2, …, 16; where
represents the weighting of the disturbance evaluation indicator,
is the disturbance weighting of other indicators, and
is the influence coefficient during the disturbance adjustment.
In general, the evaluation system designed in this paper could objectively assess the effects of technological transformation on the comprehensive benefits of the power transmission/distribution system; meanwhile, it could also reflect the impact of the specific facilities of the power grid on system performance, which provides a reliable basis for optimizing the energy-saving operation of the power transmission/distribution system in the future. However, the application of the above evaluation system in practice would still face many challenges. Firstly, there are differences in the construction of power transmission/distribution systems in the north and south regions of China, such as differences in grid structure settings, line voltage, and the ability of power equipment to withstand heat/cold, moisture/snow, etc. Therefore, the characteristics of the power grid in the designated area should be fully considered in the construction of evaluation models. Secondly, the design and performance of power grids are affected by climate conditions, economic development level, energy structure of the area, etc. Thus, the specific technological transformation should consider regional characteristics to obtain the most suitable strategy. In addition, the selection of data influences evaluation results. For instance, electricity consumption differs across seasons and levels of urban development in China, and regional differences lead to a variation in power sources, etc. Therefore, the above factors should be fully taken into account in the model construction and benefit evaluation process.
3.3. Comprehensive Benefit Analysis and Perspectives
The benefits brought by technological upgrading can generally be elaborated from two aspects: economics and social environment. On the one hand, upgraded power grid systems can reduce energy loss during transmission, thereby improving energy utilization efficiency; meanwhile, the application of new equipment could improve the reliability and stability of the power system, thus cutting down equipment losses and operating costs. On the other hand, the improvement of energy utilization efficiency and the promotion of new energy-saving equipment could directly cut down carbon emissions and reduce environmental pollution; at the same time, technological upgrades could promote the application of green energy technologies such as smart grids and distributed energy, thus achieving sustainable energy utilization and green development, which is in line with the ongoing “dual carbon” and sustainable development strategies of China.
Therefore, based on the background of both the renovation of the power grid and the current energy crisis, upgrading should pay attention to the development of green and low-carbon systems, optimize energy structures, reduce carbon emissions, and promote the sustainable development of power systems. Meanwhile, with the development of smart grids and the Internet, power transmission/distribution systems could achieve a higher degree of intelligence and automation, thereby improving operational efficiency and economic benefits through the real-time monitoring and prediction of the status of transmission and distribution equipment.
However, power transmission/distribution systems are quite complex, and involve numerous types of equipment, lines, and so on. Consequently, the overall and coordinated nature of the system, as well as the diverse needs of different regions and environments, should be taken in consideration into the technological upgrading process. At the same time, the renovation of the power grid requires a large amount of capital investment, which may be one of the challenges for economically disadvantaged regions.
In general, the optimization of power transmission/distribution systems should fully consider various aspects, such as the comprehensive benefits, the application of modern technology, green and sustainable development, regional characteristics, and actual economic conditions.