New Assessment Methods of Future Conditions for Main Vulnerabilities and Risks from Climate Change

Literature Review

The US National Climate Assessment, published in 2018, states that “Earth’s climate is now changing faster than at any point in the history of modern civilization, primarily as a result of human activities” [1]. Climate change has been defined by the UN as “a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods” [2].

Climatic changes can have an impact on both natural and human systems, since they can lead not only to floods, droughts and sea-level rise, but they can also negatively impact human lives and human health, economies and societies, services and infrastructure [3]. Changes in Earth’s average temperatures, sea-level rise, ocean acidification and other shifts in many climate aspects are interacting with other environmental changes, such as biodiversity loss or modification of biogeochemical cycles, leading to negative impacts on ecosystems and human lives [4]. Thus, climate change is considered to be not only one of the greatest ecological challenges of our century, but one of the greatest social challenges as well [5].

Many places in the world have to face the impacts of climate change every day, making it an actual problem rather that an abstract problem that is theoretically discussed [6]. Therefore, urgent action for climate change is required, including addressing its causes and reducing GHG emissions (mitigation), as well as addressing its consequences and investing in climate resilience (adaptation) [7]. Considering the intense and dramatic impact of extreme weather conditions as a result of climate change, researchers focused on the various aspects of GHG mitigation and energy saving. Initiatives were mainly focused on prioritizing local vulnerabilities, including, among others, food protection and water management, as well as built environment and urban planning.

Here, first we take into consideration a number of actions concerning potential modifications and the effect of weather in buildings’ energy effectiveness and expected heating and cooling loads. Next, we examine energy savings and RES deployment with reference also to solar market development. Then, we concentrate on hazardous climate incidents, potential competitiveness losses due to climate crisis, transformation of climate zones that affect water quality and crop cultivation. Finally, we focus on life satisfaction after coping with the environmental degradation, and the degree to which climate change may be effective by governments and international institutes.

Building energy use for both heating and cooling purposes constitutes a major contributor in the total amount of global CO₂ emissions. One of the most common approaches to evaluate the present and future effect of the rapidly changing weather conditions on the thermal profile of buildings is to utilize historical weather data from Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) files and proceed to forecasting simulations. Combining this concept with statistical downscaling and applying into the analysis the IPCC A2 emission scenario, Bazazzadeh et al. [8] examined the potential alterations of buildings’ energy performance in the Polish city of Poznan between 2020 and 2080.

Assuming that every building independent of its type remains fully operable for a period exceeding 60 years with no serious thermal load distortions, the study predicts an imminent increase of 135% in the cooling load by and a moderate fall in the heating load of 40% by the end of the examined period. Due to the predicted rise in the average regional temperature for 25% of the building types cooling load will become the greater contributor in their total thermal load, whereas 85% of the buildings show a general decrease total thermal load mainly because of lower energy needs for heating.

Tsoka et al. [9] conducted a similar analysis for the Mediterranean city of Thessaloniki, estimating a reduction of 18.5% in the buildings’ expected heating load and an almost doubled cooling load by the year 2050. Nevertheless, a particularly important differentiation of the latest study is that except from the urban air temperatures the local microclimate effect (urban heat island effect) is also taken into consideration, relying on dynamic energy performance simulations for this purpose. The final outcomes of the analysis reveal that neglecting the previous aspect and using the statistical downscaling method would result in a 21% overestimation and a 22.4% underestimation of the forecasted energy consumption for heating and cooling purposes, respectively.

A recent study by Yassaghi and Hoque [10] try to shed light on which is the most appropriate methodology for modelling weather data and forecasting the buildings’ energy performance in a certain geographical region. The authors claim that successful modelling and forecasting of such data is susceptible to the incorporated methodological procedures, involving selection of the most suitable regression model as well as the best-fit input distributions for the examined weather variables. Specifically, the findings for the processed weather data of the city of Philadelphia showed that the two-factor principal component regression model outperformed the other models, providing more robust econometric results relative to buildings’ heating load forecasting while there were mixed results relative to cooling load forecasting.

The GHG emissions mitigation process except from energy saving involves a series of other aspects, such as environmentally sustainable economic activity and development of RES deployment [11]. These two parameters can decisively contribute to moderation of global warming while at the same time provide key prospects for economic growth. Badircea et al. [12] investigate the causal relationship between GHG emissions, economic growth and Blue Economy, a variable combining sustainable economic sea-resource exploitation with environmental management and protection. The research, which is based on annual data from 2009 until 2018 for 28 EU member states with similar air pollution goals, reveals that the gross value added from Blue Economy negatively affects GHG emissions and there is a one-way causality relationship running from GHG emissions to economic growth in the short-run, whereas exactly the opposite effect applies in the long-run. On the other hand, RES deployment may constitute a crucial factor for sustainable development and reduction in carbon emissions; however, it is very sensitive to the various risks and vulnerabilities of climate change.

Silva et al. [13] explored potentially beneficial energy strategies that could ensure climate adaptation capacity in the solar market development in Thailand. It is highlighted that the expected continuous increase in solar panel deployment will also make this type of energy investment more sensitive to climate risks. As a result, it is essential for the government to promote climate adaptability of solar power plants through climate-proofing investments and facilitate solar power producers to search for suitable climate resilient sites, as well as to accumulate a safety budget that will enable fast recovery from damages following severe nationwide climate disasters.

Climate change is followed by significant economic and social costs; hence societies tend to increase the number of investments targeting environmental protection and prevention of hazardous climate incidents. Pretel and Linares [14] divided the world in four main regions based on economic activity and examined the percentage of GDP that societies are willing to pay in order to prevent the disastrous effect of climate change. Specifically, the study utilizes a baseline scenario for key parameters such as economic growth and potential climate change implications and estimates the willingness to pay in Europe, USA, China and the rest of the world. The authors conclude that societies in these regions are willing to sacrifice from 0.25% to 1% of their total GDP to avoid the catastrophic impact of climatic transformation. Interestingly, it is highlighted in the study that unilateral action from a specific region tends to decrease that region’s initial willingness to pay when all regions participated in the project and shared a mutual cause. Furthermore, higher growth rates and damages from extreme weather phenomena seem to affect significantly the willingness to pay; hence, it is possible that the poorest regions in the world are forced to carry much of the economic burden increasing global inequality. Consequently, climate diplomacy should further develop in order for joined actions lessening GHG emissions to be formed, as well as to create a fair share of the costs of the necessary precautionary measures among the different country groups. These measures may concern a plethora of mitigation strategies such as energy saving or “green” energy production; however, it may also include direct GHG emissions reduction through carbon capture and storage.

The research of Koukouzas et al. [15] revealed that such an innovative technique is nowadays perfectly feasible, and they present a characteristic example in which in the heavily burdened in terms of air pollution region of Ptolemaida in Greece there are geological formations capable for storing even up to 1.15 Gt of CO₂. Finally, it is worth mentioning that additional to the costs of direct climate damages and carbon emission moderation strategies; there is the cost of potential loss of competitiveness due to climate change. Even though such cost is quite challenging to estimate, Karman et al. [16] developed the Regional Climate Change Competitiveness Index, a widely applicable evaluation tool that identifies any adaptation weaknesses relative to climate change.

Two other crucial impacts of climate change concern the surface water quality and the agricultural industry. Rising temperatures and the transformation of existent climatic zones can decisively affect water quality, damaging entire lake and river ecosystems. Puchlik et al. [17] utilize a dataset of daily observations from meteorological and hydrological for two Polish rivers over a 15-year period between 2005 and 2021, to examine the development in their water quality. The Gołdapa river which crosses an urban area was found to have inferior quality of water compared Bludzia, the second river of the study. Interestingly, the entire region of the Goldapa river is characterized by a continuously rising air temperature and a constant reduction in daily rainfall and overall water levels. Similarly, one can comprehend that climate change can severely affect agriculture, as extreme weather condition can prove to be disastrous for crop yield. Nevertheless, the agricultural sector not only holds a key economic role but also provides modern societies with a variety of options for tacking climate change.

Pawłowski et al. [18], based on data for catch crop cultivation in 80 randomly selected Polish farms, attempt to evaluate the contribution of agriculture to alleviation of total CO₂ emissions. The study unveiled several essential environmental benefits from catch crop yields, including both biomass CO₂ assimilation as well as eco-friendly energy production. Specifically, maximizing land usage for catch crop cultivation could result in sequestration of 18.25 million tonnes of CO₂ which corresponds to approximately 6% of the total annual carbon emissions, whereas at the same time the effective utilization of the produced biomethane may support the Polish energy market with 6327 GWh of electricity and 7230 GWh of thermal energy.

Even though all aforementioned academic papers highlight a variety of different approaches and strategies aiming to deal with climate change and the increasing severity and frequency of occurrence of extreme meteorological phenomena, the climate risk factor can seriously jeopardise any environmental and energy policy planning. Thus, it is evident that living conditions and the citizens’ general feeling of life satisfaction are subject to the degree climate change is successfully tackled by individual governments and international organizations. Howells et al. [19] investigated Zimbabwe’s plan for GHG mitigation and climate resilience of the electricity sector on the basis of two main scenarios, with the first one involving increasing dependency on fossil fuels of the domestic power system and the second one using RES to cover the vast amount of the country’s electricity demand. The study argues that traditional carbon intensive power plants provide adequate climate resilience; however, they fail completely to meet the ambitious environmental goals that will enable Zimbabwe’s government to improve the country’s quality of life. Conversely, the opposite applies for developing a power system relying on RES, hence if such plan is to be selected the government needs to provide “green” energy producers with substantial financial support and guidance relative to selecting climate resilient sites.

Some of the main barriers that have been identified include insufficient resources and capacity, as well as political commitment and uncertainty. It has also been found that local adaptation is funded by large municipalities in general, whereas adaptation in less urban or densely populated areas is covered by international and national funding [20]. Interestingly, and focusing on citizens’ life satisfaction, Ortega-Gil et al. [21] implemented an econometric analysis processing survey data for 33 European countries for a 20-year period from 1999 to 2019. Clearly, econometric specifications are important in such analyses [22,23]. The empirical findings reveal a negative and statistically significant connection between environmental degradation, energy taxes and life satisfaction. In contrast, the authors argue in favour of a strong positive association of life satisfaction variables parameters with factors such as circular economy, environmental tax, and environmental protection expenditure.