Risk Management Using Network Thinking Methodology on the Example of Rail Transport

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to define the risk factors in rail transport and to show that the lack of sufficient identification of risks in individual phases affects the implementation of this type of transport. A literature study has been conducted to identify key risk factors and their impact on rail transport in Poland. For this purpose, a list of railway accidents in 2010–2020 in which people were injured, or there were significant losses in terms of the environment was presented. The realization of the objective focused on research proceedings covering the theoretical and cognitive sphere. This study included an analysis of the existing theoretical heritage in the area of risk management processes in rail transport, as well as a survey of the empirical research, which concentrated on the identification and assessment of key factors that influence the realization of rail transport in Poland. The work is of a utilitarian nature, as the need for conscious risk management has been demonstrated in rail transport, and guidelines for risk management in rail transport have been developed. In addition, the paper presents the possibilities offered by modeling a problem situation with the help of network thinking methodology for solving complex problems, including supporting creativity on the example of railroad transport in Poland. To define problem situations in the studied area, a complex process of a multifaceted approach to the analyzed issue is required. When assessing the effectiveness of risk management in rail transport, one should take into account the adverse factors influencing the studied phenomenon. The main sources used to write this article were the available literature in the field of emergency management and publications on railroad transport. The conclusions have been based on the results of logical analysis, verified empirically with the use of statistical methods.

1. Introduction

Transport infrastructure as an element of the company’s infrastructure plays the role of a factor that determines economic development and economic growth in the European Union. On the other hand, how much time a project consumed, the size of the investment, the information that was needed or the amount of resources required for the site are also important factors in economic development. Therefore, it is necessary to look for solutions that will enable the implementation of infrastructural investments while maintaining the dynamic pace of economic growth. It should also be taken into account that the lack of investment projects in the area of the transport network may result in the marginalization of the development of individual regions. Therefore, investments to modernize the transport infrastructure should be made with the use of European Union funds in a way that guarantees the coherent development of Poland and, at the same time, eliminates delays in the regions that need it. According to the strategic assumptions, railway transport should be characterized by a very high level of safety. In the article, rail transport in Poland is analyzed because it is characterized by a high accident rate in comparison with other European Union countries (Figure 3). Despite many actions undertaken to improve the situation in the railroad transport market, railroad transport still faces numerous problems. The poor technical condition of the existing infrastructure, the uneven distribution of the railroad network and the competition from road transport are just some of the challenges faced by the Polish National Railroad. Taking into account the importance of rail transport in the national logistic system, as well as the positive changes currently taking place on the railroads, a decision has been made to create this study.

Starting from the definition of the system, it can be stated that a transport system is a set of elements organizationally connected in a way ensuring effective realization of passenger and freight movement in the transport network with regard to minimization of total costs, including social costs [1]. In this context, it is assumed that:

(a)

The transport system (ST) aims at the realization of transport tasks (passenger and freight transport), with particular attention paid to minimal emission of harmful compounds by means of transport: ST = <A, R>, where A—set of elements of ST, R—set of relations in ST.

(b)

ST refers to the whole economy and the whole country.

(c)

ST is a servicing system for other areas of the economy (mining, production, etc.) and performs transport tasks resulting from the demand for passenger and freight transport [2].

Ensuring an adequate level of security for Polish society requires taking into account many factors and precise verification of contemporary threats [3].

The proper observation and identification of phenomena that occur in the environment allow for counteracting undesirable situations. Preventive measures are important as well as, in case of emergency, the availability of appropriate forces and resources maintained in readiness to carry out rescue operations and eliminate the potential effects of adverse events. Then the main contribution of this study is that:

−

We have defined areas (risk factors) of risk management that occur during the implementation of rail transportation.

−

We combined selected aspects of risk management with the application of network thinking methodologies.

−

Finally, the diagnosed risk factors are presented in the context of the use of network thinking methodology so that rapid changes could be made in the area of minimizing the impact of undesirable factors in rail transport.

The main objective and contribution of the authors are to develop a risk factor intensity map, which is a universal tool to support decision-making in rail transport risk assessment. Thanks to a holistic view, it is possible to predict and generate strategic scenarios, allowing to curb the risk of making wrong decisions. Network thinking supports the development of an appropriate management system within a company. The management system, together with processes and strategy, forms a mutually coherent whole, resulting in an effective management platform that determines the development and growth of a company.

The study was based on:

−

Face-to-face interviews with people directly involved in the implementation of rail transport, based on a structured interview aimed at identifying undesirable factors in the study area;

−

Direct participant observation was conducted between November 2020 and May 2021;

−

Analysis of available documents;

−

Analysis of the scope of the prepared reports and indicators.

The article includes a detailed literature review in the field of risk management and assessment. In addition, issues related to the methodology of network thinking are analyzed. It is noteworthy that network thinking addresses increasing complexity by considering multiple factors and paying attention to interconnections and interactions.

2. Risk and Risk Management—Review of the Literature

The first studies related to risk management were conducted in the 1930s and had, among others, an occupational/labor nature; they indicated accidents without injuries but with property damage. The significant severity of some accidents in the 1970s and 1980s motivated the widespread use of process risk management to prevent accidents and respond more effectively and quickly to emergencies. Today, risk analysis techniques are widely used as tools for risk management, regardless of their nature. In the case of rail transportation, risk management is essential, from the stages of issuing environmental permits to the construction and operation phase of railroads. However, despite a number of publications relating to risk management released in recent years, there is still a lack of research in relation to network thinking methodologies. There is also a lack of structured activities in this field. In the context of risk management in rail transportation, the literature addresses issues such as A Risk Management in Railway Sector [4], Identifying the Critical Risks in Railway Projects Based on Fuzzy and Sensitivity Analysis [5]. Contemporary models of transportation accident prevention are based on the premise that safety and accidents result from interactions among undesirable factors in whole systems (e.g., Leśniak et al., 2019 [6], Leitner, B. [7]).

Organizations are exposed to a number of factors that do not affect everyday life and vice versa. In the era of increasing globalization, along with political and economic changes, the risks affecting companies are changing as well. The risk factors affecting organizations a dozen or more years ago differed from those today. The need to react to changes in the company’s environment also leads to risk observations. The most common and widespread measures used in risk observations are forecasts and probability measurements. These methods primarily identify the basic and general elements that can have a negative impact on the company [8].

Risk is defined as a potential event or circumstance that [9] if it occurs, may affect one or more project objectives (scope, time, cost, and quality) beneficially or adversely. The source of risk is uncertainty—the essence of which is lack of or incomplete information [10].

The concept of risk largely depends on the area of analysis (industry). Engineers understand risk differently (relating the problem of risk to disruptions in machinery or production processes), financiers differently (usually focusing only on aspects of the likelihood of budget overrun or increased costs) and doctors differently (the risk of disease).

In the 1980s, E. Hauer defined risk in road transport as a “probability of an accident” [11]. However, it is worth mentioning that the dominant role in the literature in the area of risk management in transport is played by F.A. Haight’s research study, “Risk, especially risk of a traffic accident”. F.A. Haight defined risk in road transport as “the probability of an accident and the consequences of a road event” [12]. According to ISO 31000:2018—Risk Management Definition, risk management is a set of coordinated activities designed to guide and control an organization with respect to risk; the process of systematic application of management policies, procedures and practices to communication and consultation activities, defining the context and identifying, analyzing, evaluating, managing, monitoring and verifying risks [13].

In mathematical terms, risk (R), defined by the product of the probability of a certain event occurring and its impact on a project, can be described by the following formula:

R = P × S

(1)

where:

• P—the probability of a specific risk factor occurring;
• S—Severity is the amount of damage or harm a hazard could cause.

Transportation risks are mainly related to organizational and technical risks, and analyses are conducted individually (a single participant in the transportation process, e.g., employee, passenger) or in groups (the likely number of fatalities in a single incident) [14,15].

Sources of risk are usually numerous and result mainly from the variability of nature, lack of information, as well as the uniqueness of the analyzed process. Therefore, identifying sources of risk require the determination of the nature of the process in the context in which these sources are analyzed [16].

Identifying risk factors is a prerequisite for determining potential sources and types of risk. This activity is of strategic importance, as awareness of the existence of risk motivates to take steps related to minimizing threats. These factors may appear in units with different probabilities and cause a different scale of potential consequences (effects). The work distinguishes external factors (on which the organization has no influence) and internal factors (on which the organization has influence (Figure 1)).

Energy efficiency has also been the subject of research and scientific consideration for many years. In short, risk management contributes to:

−

Improving decision making, planning and prioritizing as a result of a comprehensive understanding of the project itself, the degree of uncertainty and opportunities and threats [17];

−

More efficient use of capital and resources;

−

Reducing the uncertainty associated with the project [18].

Managers often use a risk matrix to facilitate decision-making related to risk or uncertainty. The basic scheme of matrix construction is presented in Figure 2.

According to the risk matrix (Figure 2), the biggest challenge for managers in the area of risk management is decisions regarding highly probable events whose potential consequences would cause significant damage to the enterprise. However, all events identified as damaging (irrespective of the extent and likelihood of their occurrence) should be included in management decision-making processes [19,20].

The effective and efficient implementation of the rail transport process is not possible without an appropriate risk management instrument. Conscious handling of risk contributes to determining the correct response to potential threats, as well as resulting (as far as possible) in the smooth execution of planned activities in the transport process. Most importantly, the complete elimination of risk is impossible, so it must be managed.

3. Rail Transport in Poland

3.1. Railroad Infrastructure in Poland

The concept of infrastructure, which has been used in science and economic practice for many years, still does not have a generally accepted definition, which means that it is not always understood in an unambiguous way [21,22]. The most comprehensive definition is the one, assuming that infrastructure consists of equipment and institutions whose existence is necessary for the efficient functioning of the economy and society [22].

Railroad infrastructure is defined as railroad lines and other structures, buildings and equipment together with the land occupied by them, located in the railroad area, intended for the management and operation of passenger and freight traffic, as well as the maintenance of the infrastructure manager’s assets necessary for this purpose [23].

The development of infrastructure, in a way, reduces the distances between regions and has a beneficial effect on the unity of the national market and its integration into the system of the global economy [24]. For the purposes of this study, a definition was adopted according to which infrastructure is a set of linear and point public facilities, located in a given area in a permanent way, which are human-made and form the basis of economic life, resulting from their functions related to the movement of goods and people [25].

Railroad transport in Poland is the second-largest branch of transport in terms of the mass of transported goods and performed transport work. The largest amount of cargo in Poland is moved by car transport, according to the Central Statistical Office (CSO), in 2020, 2,331,758 thousand tons of cargo were transported by this means of transport. Compared to 2019, road transport increased by 21.38%. The share of road transport in the total market in 2020 was 89.21%. The total length of railroad lines in Poland in 2020 was 19,422 km. The main manager of railroad lines in Poland is PKP PLK (Polish National Railroad, Polish Railroad Lines), which as of 31 December 2019, operated 18,680 km of railroad lines (27,244 km of mainline and mainline tracks at stations and 8707 km of station tracks) [26].

Data on the main railway administrator PKP PLK included in the “Report on the state of railway safety, 2019” show that 60.3% of the infrastructure was assessed as being in good condition, 20.2% as in sufficient condition and 19.5% as in unsatisfactory condition (of which 7.3% in poor condition). 2019 was the second consecutive year in which there was an increase in the share of railway infrastructure that was classified as unsatisfactory or in poor condition). Since 2017, there has been a slight increase (1%) in the share of infrastructure in good condition. This indicates a gradual deterioration in the condition of infrastructure, so far not subject to modernization and classified as being in sufficient condition.

Analyzing the geographical distribution of railroad lines allows us to conclude that the eastern wall voivodships (Podlaskie, Podkarpackie, Lubelskie or Świętokrzyskie) are characterized by the lowest total length of railroad lines (

Table 1. The density of railroad lines in provinces of Poland in 2020. Own study based on data from [26].

Voivodeship	Surface Area [km2]	Length of Railroad Lines [km]	Population per 1 km2	Density of Railroad Lines	Voivodeship	Surface Area [km2]	Length of Railroad Lines [km]	Population per 1 km2	Density of Railroad Lines [km/100 km2]
Dolnośląskie	19,947	1742	145	8.7	Podkarpackie	17,846	978	119	5.5
Kujawsko-Pomorskie	17,972	1199	115	6.7	Podlaskie	20,187	757	58	3.7
Lubelskie	25,122	1092	83	4.3	Pomorskie	18,310	1212	128	6.6
Lubuskie	13,988	927	72	6.6	Śląskie	12,333	1912	364	15.5
Łódzkie	18,219	1079	134	5.9	Świętokrzyskie	11,711	722	105	6.2
Małopolskie	15,183	1081	225	7.1	Warmińsko-Mazurskie	24,173	1138	59	4.7
Mazowieckie	35,558	1716	153	4.8	Wielkopolskie	29,826	1892	117	6.3
Opolskie	9412	786	104	8.4	Zachodniopomorskie	22,892	1189	74	5.2

Density of railroad lines in Poland = (Length of railroad lines in km/Surface area of Poland in km²) × 100%; Density of railroad lines in Poland = (19,422 km/312,679 km²) × 100 = 6.2 km/100 km².

).

The density of railroad lines in Poland understood as the relationship between the length of railroad lines expressed in kilometers, and the area of Poland is 6.2 km/100 km². The highest railroad network density can be found in Śląskie (15.5 km/100 km²), Dolnośląskie (8.7 km/100 km²) and Opolskie (8.4 km/100 km²) provinces, while the lowest-in Podlaskie (3.7 km/100 km²), Lubelskie (4.3 km/100 km²) and Warmińsko-Mazurskie (4.7 km/100 km²) provinces. The density of the railroad network in individual provinces is presented in Table 1.

Infrastructure, including rail infrastructure, is recognized as a public good [27]. It is characterized by a relatively long period of formation, as well as the technical indivisibility of its objects [28,29]. M. Ratajczak attributes a number of technical features to the infrastructure, including high capital intensity, long period of creation and use, low possibility of transformation, spatial immobility and the impossibility of import [30].

The average rail network density in Poland is 6.2 km/100 km². A comparison of the density of railroad lines and the level of passenger use in a given voivodeship shows that there is not always a correlation between these parameters. A higher density of railroad lines does not directly translate into a high level of railroad use. The nature of transport in individual provinces differs. Many factors are relevant here, such as the timetable and route grid, the type of traction, the technical characteristics of the line, the nature of the transport (agglomeration or passenger service throughout the region), the specificity and quality of the rolling stock used and the availability and the location of passenger stations. The population of the region is also important. All of these parameters affect the share of a long-distance carrier in the number of passengers in a given province.

Taking into account the above considerations in terms of infrastructure, the following conclusions arise:

−

It is of vital importance to the economy and society;

−

It refers mainly to facilities and service institutions [31];

−

has important roles to play in economic and social development;

−

The responsibility for its creation and maintenance in the current economic conditions increasingly lies with the private sector, which becomes the owner of the infrastructure [21].

In recent years, the decrease in the number of sections of railway lines with a speed limit of 60 km/h has been a positive trend. At the same time, the share of sections in which the speed limit is between 80 and 120 km/h has increased to 45.7% (by 1.8 p.p.). In the case of long-distance passenger connections, this value is often insufficient to provide services, as for that type of connection, train speeds of 120 to 160 km/h are desirable (

Table 2. Overhead contact line depending on the maximum speed capability. Own study based on data from [26].

Traction Network	160 < V ≤ 200 km/h	120 < V ≤ 160 km/h	V ≤ 120 km/h
Tonne-kilometres (tkm)	3998	7747	13,244
Share in %	10	31	53

). A large portion of Poland’s railway tracks is those with the lowest parameters in terms of the speed limit. In 2019, tracks with a maximum speed of up to 60 km/h and between 60 and 80 km/h together accounted for more than 38% of all railroad tracks. In 2019, the share of railroad lines with an allowable axle load of 221 kN was 60%. Despite the increase in such sections, there are still sections with an allowable axle load of less than 200 kN on more than 23% of the line length.

In spite of repair and investment activities in the field of the Polish transport infrastructure that has been carried out for a dozen or so years, the level of degradation and many years of neglect is so high that the transport system still requires improvements in terms of network cohesion and transport effectiveness by increasing the technical parameters, the capacity of the network and the construction of new elements of the system. Poland is developing dynamically and improving infrastructure in each transport sector, experiencing an investment boom on an unprecedented scale thanks to, among other factors, the availability of aid funds for European Union member states (Cohesion Fund, European Regional Development Fund, funds earmarked for TEN-T projects, and earlier pre-accession funds) [32].

Transport infrastructure is characterized by many specific features, the occurrence of which is that its development can only result from long-term plans and development strategies [33] which, however, reflect the dynamic changes occurring during its use. This means that taking into account the changing conditions for the implementation of transport investments, resulting from constantly updated strategies for developing this infrastructure, is necessary [34].

3.2. Adverse Events Occurring on Railway Lines

In view of new legal requirements and a number of railroad accidents and disasters that have occurred in recent years, the functioning of the railroad transport sector in Poland requires a radically different outlook and management models. The overall level of safety in rail traffic in Europe is measured by the number of fatal train collisions and derailments per million train kilometers. Figure 3 refers to the number of persons killed in railroad accidents in 2020. The analysis of this figure shows that the highest values characterize the countries of Central and Eastern Europe (Slovakia, Romania, Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, Bulgaria, Lithuania). Poland is in third place in this ranking.

Potentially hazardous situations, in many cases, are precursor events or precursors to accidents and incidents. When analyzing situations of this nature, it is important to identify root causes [35]. This makes it possible to prevent the occurrence of events that are caused by the same mechanisms. In Poland, the largest database of potentially dangerous situations and other dangerous events in the form of a register of potentially dangerous situations is maintained by the national infrastructure manager—PKP PLK.

Rail is one of the safest modes of transportation, as evidenced by data published by the Office of Rail Transportation in the “Rail Safety Status Report 2019”. The measure of accidents defines the level of railroad traffic safety, i.e., the number of accidents per one million train kilometers (pcs./million poc.-km). In rail transport, factors such as speed, quality and lack of damage are crucial in order to be able to provide confidence and meet the increasing customer expectations [36]. The best example of this is the number of accidents and collisions involving vehicles and pedestrians at railroad–road crossings over the past 10 years (Figure 4).

Figure 4 presents the number of accidents and collisions involving vehicles and pedestrians at level crossings on the PKP Polish Railway Lines S.A. managed railroad line network from 2010–2020. Over the period 2010–2020, the least number of collision accidents occurred in 2020 (158) and the most in 2010 (289). In addition, 2010 had the highest number of injured persons (56). The least number of injured persons was recorded in 2019, while fatalities were recorded in 2014 and 2017. The decrease in recorded accidents and collisions is a result of, among other things, the high safety standards of the railroad network and the appropriate behavior of road users.

Year after year, there has been a decrease in recorded accidents and collisions at unauthorized crossings (Figure 5). The exceptions are 2011, with 337 accidents and collisions (an increase of 25 compared to 2010) and 2018, with 202 accidents and collisions (an increase of 31 compared to 2017). A significant issue here is the increased awareness and development of safety culture among rail marketers. This ensures that accidents and collisions are properly identified and analyzed, resulting in increased safety.

Based on the statistics, it can be concluded that the vast majority of accidents in railroad traffic are the fault of users of crossings and level crossings and persons not authorized to be on railroad premises—their number is significant compared to other categories in terms of entities at fault for accidents on the network of railroad lines managed by the company [38].

The most common causes of adverse events in rail transport were mistakes made by employees when conducting rail traffic, and damage or poor technical condition of the railroad surface (

Table 3. Quantitative accidents on PKP Polish Railway Lines S.A. network in 2019 and 2020 due to culpable entities [37].

Culpable Entities	2019	2020	2020 vs. 2019
Crossing user or driver outside the crossing	190	152	−38
unauthorized person	136	133	−3
carrier	68	22	−46
PKP Polish Railway Lines S.A.	34	24	−10
repair units/contractors	18	18	0
passenger	16	1	−15
others	22	19	−3

). Poland’s low level of rail traffic safety resulted from the simultaneous occurrence of many causes. The most important include:

−

Poor quality of railroad infrastructure (insufficient technical condition of the superstructure, turnouts);

−

Unsatisfactory technical condition of wagon and traction rolling stock;

−

Insufficient qualifications and skills of staff responsible for railroad traffic safety;

−

Insufficient supervision of both the infrastructure manager and transport companies over the implementation of internal regulations resulting from the Railway Safety Management System (SMS) and non-compliance with the applicable procedures.

One of the main determinants of a railroad traffic safety assessment is the number of railroad accidents and the analysis of their causes and effects, as well as the existing hazards. Rail accidents are a result of, among other things, the volume of transport performed, the intensity of railroad traffic, the technical condition of the railroad line network in use and the technical condition of railroad vehicles.

Safety is a priority in the operation of railroad traffic. All activities aimed at ensuring the high technical standard of the railroad lines network managed by PKP Polish Railway Lines S.A. also includes an efficient and effective system of railroad rescue. Thus, Railway Technical Rescue teams are located throughout the network managed by PKP Polish Railway Lines S.A., mainly at hub stations, in order to reach incident sites as quickly as possible. As of 31 December 2019, there were 18 teams in operation, i.e., 11 Special Technical Rescue Trains (SPRTs) and Technical Rescue Trains (PRTs) with vehicles, equipment and about 500 trained employees meeting the qualifications and health requirements.

The basic tasks of railroad technical rescue teams are removing the debris from railroad accidents and incidents, which cause interruptions or limitations in railroad traffic, and the transport of railroad vehicles damaged as a result of technical failures to the nearest station. Railroad rescue teams are prepared to work in all weather conditions possible in our country. The deployment and types of railroad rescue teams are adapted to the needs and traffic intensity on the railroad network [39].

4. Material and Methodology

The first studies on risk management were conducted in the 1930s and focused on matters of an occupational/labor nature, among others, and indicated accidents without injuries but with property damage. The increased severity of several accidents in the 1970s and 1980s motivated the widespread use of process risk management as a way to prevent accidents in order to respond more effectively and quickly to emergencies. Today, risk analysis techniques are widely used as tools for risk management, regardless of their nature. In the case of rail transportation, risk management is necessary from an environmental perspective relating to the construction and operation phases of railroads. However, despite a number of publications on risk management in recent years, there is still a lack of research on network thinking methodologies. There is also a lack of structured activities in this field.

According to community law, risk is understood as the frequency of occurrence of accidents and events in connection with the magnitude of their consequences. If the risk is unacceptable, we define such a condition as a hazard that could potentially lead to an accident.

The following is a qualitative risk matrix scale for probabilities and consequences, with quantitative indicators, except for political and social impacts, which are described only qualitatively. The assessment of risk factors is based on the indication of the estimated level of P and S of the occurrence of the risk factors included in the register by independent respondents. For this purpose, the following techniques were used:

−

Direct observation supported by the opinion of experts involved in the process of preparation and implementation of non-normative transport process (expert group);

−

Analysis and evaluation of documentation related to the preparation and implementation of selected transport processes;

−

review of the subject literature.

The P and S scores were used in this study to build the ranking of risk factors. The main task of risk factor evaluation is to determine the two key parameters, which are the P and S of an occurrence in each risk factor. In order to make this assessment, the study uses a qualitative–quantitative scale of probability and a qualitative scale of consequences of the occurrence of hazards, which are a combination of description and numerical value (

Table 4. The effects of risk in the rail transportation process [40].

Likelihood	Detailed Description	Score Value
Very low	Negligible, low impact on the achievement of corporate tasks and objectives; minimal financial impact;	1
Low	Low impact on the achievement of company tasks and objectives; low financial effect;	2
Medium	Medium impact on achievement of company’s tasks and objectives; medium financial impact;	3
High	Serious impact on task completion, serious threat to task completion date,	4
Very high	Failure to accomplish assigned tasks and goals, failure to complete tasks in a timely manner; very high financial losses;	5

and

Table 5. Assessing the probability of risk in the rail transportation process [40].

Likelihood	Detailed Description	Score Value
Frequent	Very low event; possibility of occurrence under exceptional circumstances (1 to 20%); most likely will not occur at all	1
Probable	Low probability of occurrence, may occur in exceptional circumstances (21 to 40% that it occurs about once every two years); affects few cases	2
Occasional	Probability of occurrence is moderately possible (41 to 60% that it will occur more than once a year); in some cases, this event may occur; applies to some cases	3
Remote	The event is very likely to occur (61 to 80% likely to occur regularly at least a couple times a year);	4
Improbable	Event almost certain to occur regularly every month or more (81–100% probability)	5

), which promotes further quantitative analysis of risk.

The assessment of risk factors, according to Table 4 and Table 5, is based on a five-level P and S scale of occurrence of the risk factors included in the register. The first level is defined as a non-occurrence event (probability value in the range (0; 0.20>), the effects at a given level are considered negligible or have no impact on the achievement of the task and objectives of the unit. The fourth level determines the event of almost certainty (probability value in the range (0.81; <1.0), with very significant effects (failure to achieve the set tasks and objectives, failure to complete the task within the set deadline).

Adverse events and their consequences in the course of rail passenger services, regardless of the level, should be properly recorded and prioritized, or frequency recording should be ensured.

Adverse events resulting in harm to those involved in the event and to others who experience disruption to their rail transport operations as a result of the event. During adverse events, it may be necessary to detour or cancel trains. The effects of these events can also be severe for rail line managers and passengers. In addition, sources of risk tend to be numerous and arise mainly from variability in nature, lack of information, and the uniqueness and singularity of the process being analyzed [41].

(a)

Identification of the risk list:

(b)

Assigning weights to the risk assessment criteria;

(c)

Identification of management/task priority;

(d)

Taking into account the date of the last assessment;

(e)

Scoring of individual criteria according to the algorithm:

$$LP=\frac{\left[W{K}_1·P_1+W{K}_2·P_2+\cdots +W{K}_n·P_n\right]}{m}·100\%$$

(2)

where:

• LP—number of points for each risk,
• WP_1…n—the weights assigned to the criteria,
• P_1…n—points allocated to the criteria,
• m—the maximum value to be assigned to a given criterion.

(f)

Risk assessment in terms of the last audit;

(g)

The risk assessment after taking into account the priority;

(h)

Final evaluation [7].

Deciding how to manage risk depends on many factors, including the involvement of different forces, resources, knowledge and information [42]. Risk analysis in the transportation process requires access to all information in order to identify sources of hazards, define hazards, and prioritize and assess risks [43]. In practice, rail transport operators make short-term analyses resulting from the daily operation of the unit. After the analysis, a list of 10 risk factors was generated, and then their significance was determined.

5. Results

The identification of significant factors was based mainly on the assessment of risk factors by independent respondents. For this purpose, the Expert Survey Technique was used. The use of the above tools was aimed at quantifying the issues (risk factors) so far expressed in a qualitative manner, which in the next stage leads to the conduct of quantitative research. In this article, risk is only considered in the context of a potential loss.

Two hazards, i.e., the human factor and accidents at railroad crossings, have been classified as the most significant (parameter X₄ and X₇), which raises the greatest concerns (

Table 6. Example of risk analysis for rail transport. Own study.

Symbol	Description of Investigated Hazards	Risk Assessment
		Severity	Probability	Level of Risk
X1	Inadequacy of point infrastructure	3	3	9
X2	Vehicle breakdown	3	2	6
X3	Train speed	2	1	2
X4	Human factors	4	3	12
X5	Track type	2	2	4
X6	Fires on rolling stock	3	1	3
X7	Accidents at railroad crossings	4	3	12
X8	Inadequate technical condition of rolling stock	2	2	4
X9	Train derailments	4	1	4
X10	Low qualifications and skills of employees	4	2	8

). The consequences of these incidents involve very high financial losses or legal damages, and often the loss of the good image of the transport company. The risks associated with these accidents can also have large consequences in terms of loss of health or life of workers. Five risk factors (X₃, X₅, X₆, X₈, X₉) from all categories were assigned to the low significance group. These are hazards characterized by the negligible or low impact on the performance of rail transportation tasks.

The Network Thinking methodology is based on teamwork, so experts were invited to conduct the analysis: from a highly networked company and from the Academia. In the initial stage of research, factors potentially influencing proactive risk management in rail transport were identified. The main advantage of the network thinking methodology is that it models the relationship between variables [44]. It allows us to make conclusions about the effects of an issue based on known causes, as well as to search for causes of the events (effects) that have occurred. Thanks to the holistic view, it is possible to predict and generate strategic scenarios, which allow controlling the risk of making wrong decisions [45]. System thinking results in building a management system in a company [46]. The management system, together with business processes, business model and strategy, forms a mutually coherent whole, resulting in an effective management platform that determines the development and growth of the company. To solve the analyzed problem, we should first consider its nature and verify whether the probabilistic network is the right modeling methodology for the given situation.

The register created an evaluation of risk factors (

Table 7. Intensity of interaction of factors in rail transport. Own materials.

Description of Investigated Hazards	X1	X2	X3	X4	X5	X6	X7	X8	X9	X10	∑
Inadequacy of point infrastructure	X	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	3
Vehicle breakdown	1	X	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	1	7
Train speed	0	1	X	1	1	0	2	1	1	0	7
Human factors	0	0	1	X	1	0	2	1	1	3	9
Track type	1	3	1	0	X	0	2	1	1	2	11
Fires on rolling stock	0	1	0	1	0	X	0	3	0	0	5
Accidents at railroad crossings	2	1	1	2	0	1	X	0	0	0	7
Inadequate technical condition of rolling stock	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	X	1	0	3
Train derailments	1	2	0	0	2	1	0	1	X	3	10
Low qualifications and skills of employees	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	X	6
Total P	7	10	4	5	4	5	7	11	6	9	X

) to make it possible to rank the threats in terms of their significance in the context of risk in rail transport, which is the subject of a wider analysis in the next section of this article. It is worth emphasizing that expert knowledge is important when listing the most important factors from the perspective of risk management in rail transport (the probability and the effects of the occurrence of undesirable factors, respectively). The specific objectivity and credibility depend on the verification of the values of the above probabilities by independent experts who, in the light of their own experience (knowledge), assess the strength of the impact of individual factors (variables). These activities determine the possibility and sense of the model application for diagnostic and prognostic purposes.

There are several methods to model relationships using networks—one of them is the network thinking methodology. Its premise is to provide complete information about risk by identifying key risks and the most important (foreground) impacts in relation to their position in the network. Such an analysis is extremely important because, in some circumstances, it may turn out that a seemingly insignificant risk can be the source of a whole series of propagation effects, resulting in a much higher level of negative phenomena severity.

The use of network thinking methodology is quite time-consuming, as it requires skills and constant close contact with experts in the field. The two key problems in the process of model building are the identification of variables and the relations between them. The main advantage of the intensity map is its holistic approach [47]. In terms of rail transport risk management, allowing not only to identify undesirable factors (groups of factors) but also to estimate the level of risk of their occurrence, understanding and examining the interactions in the network is the starting point for analyzing the intensity of influence of factors on each other. An influence matrix was used for this analysis. It estimates the intensity of influence on a four-point scale: 0—no influence, 1—weak influence, 2—strong influence, 3—very strong influence [48].

−

Active factors strongly influence other elements but are not themselves influenced;

−

Passive factors influence other elements to a small degree but are themselves strongly influenced;

−

Critical factors strongly influence other elements but at the same time, are themselves subject to strong influences;

−

Lazy factors weakly influence other elements but are also only weakly influenced by themselves [49].

The necessary calculations were performed, and the following intensity map calculations were obtained. As the quality map shows, the analyzed factors qualify as lazy, active and passive factors. None of the factors was identified as critical.

The above elements should also be presented on an intensity map, a tool used to identify the nature of individual factors. Based on the intensity map presented in Figure 6, key factors can be identified (active–influencing these factors will result in high effectiveness of an action, as these are the elements that significantly affect other elements but are themselves subject to very little impact). These factors include:

−

Vehicle breakdown (X₂);

−

Inadequate technical condition of rolling stock (X₈);

−

low qualifications and skills of employees (X₁₀).

Several actions are worth implementing for risk management in rail transport to be effective. Usinga tool such as the network thinking methodology, we have several ways to express the uncertainty associated with the issues under analysis. Firstly, risk management in rail transport should be well planned and executed as formalised procedures. Haphazard action, without a publicly available timetable, may result in failure to prevent or mitigate adverse events in risk management. Secondly, risk management should be carried out in accordance with an accepted model (schedule), which includes the following logical sequence of events: identification of causes of undesirable events, quantification, assessment of the magnitude of negative effects/assessment of consequences, formulation of action options, monitoring and control. As there are interactions between the stages, subsequent stages may result from those already completed. Persons implementing the procedures should know the different stages of risk management and be able to indicate the relationships (interactions) between them. Third, risk management procedures should be implemented continuously, not just on an ad hoc basis. Analyzing the possibility of undesirable factors continuously can help minimize the possible negative consequences of their occurrence.

The last important element of risk management is monitoring and control. This stage is designed to provide information on changes in the environment that affect the planning and execution of the rail transport process and provides a basis for implementing specific actions. Monitoring should be periodic (e.g., quarterly) or, when appropriate, ad hoc. Monitoring supports the assessment of undesirable factors and the preparation of a formalized report. The assessment of undesirable factors involves comparing the level of risk in rail transport with the acceptable level of risk as such. The appropriate monitoring enables decision-makers to assess the proper functioning of the risk management process. Proper risk management in transport is also based on the development of audit reports. These reports should be written in a clear and understandable way so that everyone in the unit can read them.

Due to the complexity of the rail transportation process, risk estimation is extremely difficult. Therefore, in some cases obtaining an expert opinion is the only way to get necessary data for analysis. Sometimes this approach is criticized due to the fact that the estimation of risk level is reduced to the subjective expert assessment.

In summary, the construction of dependency networks should be considered systemically (they provide the opportunity to evaluate impacts and assign weight to them in the context of system functioning). The study using the network thinking methodology identified factors that strongly influence others. These include active and critical factors, which showed the greatest activity within the built network of relationships, aimed at effective organizational risk management in rail transport. The causal factors that determine organizational risk management in production systems can be considered as vehicle failure, the technical condition of the wagon fleet, employee qualifications and skills (active factors).

In addition, by supporting the development of future system states scenarios, those involved in risk management in rail transport can take into account different set states and variability of factors depending on the established mutual relations. That reduces the probability of omitting an important factor, from the point of view of shaping the level of organizational risk, in the prepared scenarios. As a result, this has the effect of reducing the level of uncertainty associated with the future of rail transport, as well as proactively supporting this mode of transport. This also results in the possibility of developing scenarios dedicated to responding to potentially unpredictable situations, thus reducing the response time.

6. Discussion and Conclusions

This paper attempts to implement network thinking for risk management in rail transportation. Key factors affecting safety in rail transportation include a list of key undesirable factors. In recent years, PKP Polish Railway Lines S.A. has taken several additional measures to improve railroad traffic safety in all areas of its operations.

Materials used in the analysis include records of the Central Statistical Office (GUS) and reports of the Railway Transport Office. The study period covers the years 2010–2020. Undesirable factors occurring in rail transport were analyzed in detail. After substantive and logical verification and review of the subject literature, the factors selected for correlation analysis included: the density of railroad network per 100 km, length of railroad lines [km] and population in individual voivodships.

The proposed methodology of risk management considering network thinking is particularly important in transportation because it can be a tool to support decision-making at different levels of management, including but not limited to:

−

Traffic management;

−

Railroad infrastructure management;

−

Railroad safety management (planning, design and operation of railroad engineering facilities, road network planning);

−

Driving process performed by railroad traffic participant or participants;

−

Management of passenger and freight transport carried out by railroad means.

Managing risk depends on many factors, including the involvement of different forces, resources, knowledge and information. Risk analysis in the transportation process requires access to all information to identify sources of threats, define threats, prioritize and evaluate risks. In practice, transport operators make short-term analyses resulting from the daily operation of the unit. The risk in transport is mainly related to organizational and technical risks. At the same time, the analyses are performed individually (a single participant in the transport process, i.e., an employee, a passenger) or collectively (the likely number of fatalities in one event). Regardless of the type of risks, they are a source of costs within which the following are distinguished: money spent on minimizing risk, money spent on risk financing, costs resulting from giving up business activity due to related risks or costs of not insuring losses. From the point of view of transport processes, the most important is the division into risk factors, which can be influenced by the entity.

Security is a dynamic state whose level depends on many variables [50]. Only developed operating procedures, trained personnel and prepared infrastructure to allow efficient decision-making and implementation of specific tasks. They also make each entity involved in activities for the benefit of safety a certain link of the management system [51]. The risk of time pressure results mainly from the dynamics of transformations in the organisation and its environment. The need for immediate response to emerging threats generates a constant need for proper management of this non-renewable and priceless resource. Individuals are forced to achieve set tasks and goals in ever shorter periods of time. Failure to react quickly and efficiently may lead to the risk of loss or loss of benefits. Proper management of an entity requires time to properly plan, organize, motivate and control.

As it can be seen from the material presented, risk analysis and risk management are rather complex and extensive domains. It concerns all technical systems. There are no specific detailed guidelines for carrying out risk analysis for safety-related systems, including railroad signalling equipment.

The use of network methodology also makes it possible to recognize changes in factors so that corrective action can be taken as early as possible. Any number of additional factors can be included in the problem situation model and analyzed not in isolation but in connection with other factors.

This process makes it possible to identify undesirable factors that affect the implementation of transport so that the set tasks are fulfilled. Risk management supports decision-making, makes decisions more informed, and reduces reaction time during possible emergencies, leading to better use of the organization’s resources. Risk identification involves identifying and recording undesirable factors to achieve the organization’s goals. Proper identification involves taking into account factors inside and outside the organization that have a direct and indirect impact on the actions taken by the organization.

Furthermore, it is crucial to determine how big the risk is, what impact it may have on the transport process, and whether and what actions should be taken to eliminate or minimize the risk to an acceptable level. The absence or incorrect identification of undesirable factors results in failure to achieve the goal of risk management. Additionally, inadequate risk management can contribute to:

−

Reducing the likelihood of achieving objectives;

−

Decreasing organizational governance;

−

Increased losses;

−

Improper identification of opportunities and threats;

−

Inadequate allocation and use of resources while minimizing the effects of risks;

−

Reduction of drivers’ trust in the organization.

The research section presents an analysis of potential risk identification, impact and probability of occurrence assessment, and significance assessment for rail transportation. Determining the risk assessment associated with implementing rail freight transport requires solving a complex decision-making problem. Developing a risk assessment model and defining methods to solve problems requires using appropriate tools to determine the values of levels for risk matrix for various decision-making situations. It is worth noting that the developed decision-making model supports the study of event scenarios for accidents and incidents on railroad lines and railroad sidings.

The identification of the most important risks allowed to identify the part of the activity in rail transport which, to minimize possible losses, must be characterized by the greatest diligence in the implementation of activities burdened with risk.

Two methods were used to evaluate the magnitude of the hazards for comparison of their results: the intensity map method and the mathematical method. It can be concluded from the analysis that the two most significant risks are the human factor and accidents at level crossings (parameters X₄ and X₇). Countermeasures in this regard, which minimize the possibility of these risks, are training of machine operators, compliance with regulations and procedures, conducting periodic medical surveys of employed persons, and providing the drivers with appropriate occupational safety standards.

In risk identification in rail transport, continuous monitoring of risk symptoms (initiating events) is important. The monitoring of risk factors supports the decision-making of the management. The reaction time in case of adverse events is reduced, decisions are better informed, and resources are used more efficiently. A large proportion of incidents (adverse factors) relate to human (driver) performance and their interaction with trains and track equipment.

Thanks to the use of various data sources and research methods that ensure maximum objectivity of conclusions, research material was collected. Its systematization and analysis enabled the refutation or confirmation of the material detailed in the paper, and thus provided a significant amount of information of a cognitive nature.