The Periodic Characteristics of China’s Economic Carbon Intensity Change and the Impacts of Economic Transformation
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Methodology
3. Decomposition Results
3.1. Overall Effect
3.2. Energy Efficiency Effect
3.3. Sectoral Effect
3.4. Energy Structure Effect
3.5. Household Energy Consumption Effect
4. The Periodic Characteristics of China’s Carbon Emissions
4.1. The Stage Division of China’s Change in Economic Carbon Intensity Since Its Accession to the World Trade Organization
4.2. Characteristics and Differences of Various Carbon Emission Phases
4.3. Analysis of China’s GHG Emission Pathway in Different Phases
5. Conclusions
Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Category | Publications | Indicator Type | Method | Decomposition Level | Whether the Economic Phase/Stage Is Identified | Time Period |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Research on Single Country Decomposition | Wang et al. (2011) | Quantity (CO2, heavy industry only) | Econometrics | Factors and sectors | No | 1978–2008 |
Qi et al. (2016) | Quantity (CO2) | LMDI | Factors and sectors | No | 2005–2014 | |
Liu et al. (2007) | Quantity (CO2, industry only) | LMDI | Factors and sectors | Yes (period divided by joining WTO) | 1998–2002; 2003–2005 | |
S.C. Xu et al. (2014) | Quantity (CO2) | LMDI | Factors, sectors, and regions | No | 1995–2011 | |
Wang et al. (2005) | Quantity (CO2) | LMDI | Factors | Yes (period divided by Reform and Opening) | 1957–1980;1981–2000 | |
Li et al. (2015b) | Quantity (CO2) | LMDI | Factors and sectors | No | 1996–2012 | |
Wang et al. (2015) | Quantity (CO2) | LMDI | Factors and sectors | No | 1996–2012 | |
Li et al. (2015a) | Quantity (CO2) | LMDI | Factors and sectors | Yes (period divided by each Chinese five-year plan) | 1997–2012 | |
Chen and Yang (2015) | Quantity (CO2) | LMDI | Factors, sectors, and regions | No | 1995–2011 | |
J.H. Xu et al. (2014) | Quantity (CO2) | LMDI | Factors and sectors | No | 2005–2010 | |
Guan et al. (2014) | Quantity (CO2) | M-E index | Factors and regions | Yes (2002 as starting year) | 2002–2009 | |
Zhang et al. (2016) | Quantity (Coal) | LMDI | Factors | No | 1991–2003 | |
Tang et al. (2018) | Quantity (Coal) | LMDI | Factors and sectors | Yes (period divided by each Chinese five-year plan) | 1997–2014 | |
Zhang and Da (2015) | Quantity (CO2) & Intensity (CO2) | LMDI | Factors and sectors | No | 1996–2010 | |
Gu and Lv (2016) | Quantity (CO2) | SDA | Factors and sectors | No | 1992/1997/2002/2007/2010 | |
Mi et al. (2017a) | Quantity (CO2) | SDA | Factors and sectors | Yes (Analyzing the impact of 2008 financial crisis) | 2005/2007/2010/2012 | |
Mi et al. (2017b) | Quantity (CO2) | SDA | Factors and sectors | Yes (Analyzing the impact of 2008 financial crisis) | 2007/2010/2012 | |
Wu and Zhang (2016) | Quantity (CO2) | SDA | Factors and sectors | No | 1997/2002/2007/2012 | |
X. Xu et al. (2014) | Intensity (CO2) | LMDI | Factors and sectors | Yes (period divided by each Chinese five-year plan) | 1996–2011 | |
Tan et al. (2011) | Intensity (CO2) | LMDI | Factors, sectors and regions | No | 1998–2008 | |
Lin et al. (2014) | Intensity (CO2) | LMDI | Factors and sectors | Yes (period divided by each Chinese five-year plan) | 1996–2010 | |
Li and Ou (2013) | Intensity (CO2) | LMDI | Factors and sectors | No | 1995–2010 | |
Economic Stage Analysis | Fan (2006) | Quantity (CO2) | Econometrics | Factors: different nations | No | 1975–2000 |
Wang et al. (2016) | Quantity (CO2) | Econometrics | Factors: different nations | No | 1990–2012 | |
Chen et al. (2010) | Quantity (CO2) | Econometrics | Factors: historical change in 6 nations | No | 1900s–2005 | |
Han and Lu (2009) | Quantity (CO2) | Econometrics | Factors: different nations | No | 1980–2003 | |
Alam et al. (2016) | Intensity (CO2) | Econometrics | Factors: different nations | No | 1971–2012 |
Factors | 2001–2002 | 2002–2003 | 2003–2004 | 2004–2005 | 2005–2006 | 2006–2007 | 2007–2008 | 2008–2009 | 2009–2010 | 2010–2011 | 2011–2012 | 2012–2013 | 2013–2014 | Sum |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SSagr | −0.81623 | −1.20372 | 0.74529 | −1.60643 | −1.33287 | −0.43618 | −0.03061 | −0.45788 | −0.24193 | −0.07947 | −0.00437 | −0.09831 | −0.17543 | −5.73813 |
SSind | −1.69174 | 5.525319 | 1.963803 | 5.717241 | 2.308661 | −3.82177 | −0.5954 | −8.46697 | 1.910638 | −0.62327 | −5.59543 | −5.8899 | −4.61841 | −13.8772 |
SScon | −0.02364 | 0.08941 | −0.04909 | 0.094425 | 0.074708 | 0.002236 | 0.091893 | 0.29355 | 0.042805 | 0.046861 | 0.043924 | 0.020183 | 0.054638 | 0.7819 |
SSser | 1.137483 | −0.23957 | −0.9802 | 0.187573 | 0.558958 | 1.113242 | −0.03353 | 1.375133 | −0.20654 | 0.098938 | 0.960472 | 1.134866 | 0.884663 | 5.991497 |
EFagr | −0.50738 | 1.94719 | −1.44353 | 0.784438 | 0.304517 | −1.35143 | −1.86051 | −0.19001 | −0.92393 | −0.41027 | 0.069671 | −0.70717 | −0.51977 | −4.80818 |
EFind | −7.04822 | 11.45319 | 17.45878 | −10.1997 | −10.8247 | −14.7718 | −8.75383 | −0.01032 | −15.7662 | −3.59779 | −0.53456 | 3.205554 | −6.55798 | −45.9476 |
EFcon | −0.28988 | −0.08634 | 0.074954 | −0.13636 | −0.14602 | −0.32028 | −0.25912 | −0.20108 | −0.12048 | −0.00829 | −0.0607 | −0.00352 | −0.17315 | −1.73026 |
EFser | −2.96609 | 2.766373 | 2.224508 | −0.88873 | −2.27936 | −4.75551 | −2.97224 | −2.40915 | −1.83868 | −0.26158 | 0.498728 | −1.39064 | −2.35869 | −16.6311 |
ESagr | −0.005 | 0.138794 | −0.09301 | 0.061363 | 0.058958 | 0.077238 | −0.11919 | −0.03615 | −0.05642 | 0.064583 | −0.03942 | −0.03135 | −0.06773 | −0.04735 |
ESind | −0.62684 | 4.021569 | 0.988805 | 2.359813 | 0.755826 | 0.058597 | −2.79355 | 0.226184 | −1.98501 | 1.421973 | −3.57952 | 0.159389 | −2.49447 | −1.48724 |
EScon | 0.010569 | 0.019459 | −0.04568 | 0.005439 | 0.017725 | −0.00017 | −0.04862 | −0.01042 | −0.02406 | 0.032316 | −0.04224 | −0.012 | −0.03228 | −0.12997 |
ESser | 0.070744 | 0.40189 | −0.39324 | 0.239342 | 0.144896 | 0.130478 | −0.7702 | −0.00287 | −0.36404 | 0.266501 | −0.45786 | −0.02573 | −0.51211 | −1.2722 |
HH | 0.037882 | 0.725949 | −0.54975 | −2.20941 | −1.61005 | −2.16653 | −2.54782 | −0.83045 | −2.95094 | −0.33975 | −0.35752 | 0.126553 | −1.63513 | −14.307 |
Sum | −12.7183 | 25.55952 | 19.90163 | −5.59098 | −11.9688 | −26.2419 | −20.6927 | −10.7204 | −22.5248 | −3.38925 | −9.09882 | −3.51209 | −18.2058 | −99.2028 |
Factors | 2001–2002 | 2002–2003 | 2003–2004 | 2004–2005 | 2005–2006 | 2006–2007 | 2007–2008 | 2008–2009 | 2009–2010 | 2010–2011 | 2011–2012 | 2012–2013 | 2013–2014 | Sum |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SS | −1.39413 | 4.171439 | 1.679802 | 4.392813 | 1.609461 | −3.14247 | −0.56764 | −7.25617 | 1.504971 | −0.55695 | −4.5954 | −4.83316 | −3.85453 | −12.842 |
(%) | 10.96% | 16.32% | 8.44% | −78.57% | −13.45% | 11.98% | 2.74% | 67.69% | −6.68% | 16.43% | 50.51% | 137.62% | 21.17% | 12.95% |
EF | −10.8116 | 16.08042 | 18.31472 | −10.4403 | −12.9456 | −21.199 | −13.8457 | −2.81056 | −18.6493 | −4.27792 | −0.02686 | 1.104216 | −9.60959 | −69.1171 |
(%) | 85.01% | 62.91% | 92.03% | 186.74% | 108.16% | 80.78% | 66.91% | 26.22% | 82.79% | 126.22% | 0.30% | −31.44% | 52.78% | 69.67% |
ES | −0.55052 | 4.581713 | 0.456864 | 2.665958 | 0.977405 | 0.266139 | −3.73157 | 0.176745 | −2.42953 | 1.785373 | −4.11904 | 0.090309 | −3.10659 | −2.93676 |
(%) | 4.33% | 17.93% | 2.30% | −47.68% | −8.17% | −1.01% | 18.03% | −1.65% | 10.79% | −52.68% | 45.27% | −2.57% | 17.06% | 2.96% |
HH | 0.037882 | 0.725949 | −0.54975 | −2.20941 | −1.61005 | −2.16653 | −2.54782 | −0.83045 | −2.95094 | −0.33975 | −0.35752 | 0.126553 | −1.63513 | −14.307 |
(%) | −0.30% | 2.84% | −2.76% | 39.52% | 13.45% | 8.26% | 12.31% | 7.75% | 13.10% | 10.02% | 3.93% | −3.60% | 8.98% | 14.42% |
AGR | −1.32861 | 0.882261 | −0.79125 | −0.76063 | −0.96939 | −1.71038 | −2.01031 | −0.68404 | −1.22228 | −0.42516 | 0.025888 | −0.83684 | −0.76293 | −10.5937 |
(%) | 10.45% | 3.45% | −3.98% | 13.60% | 8.10% | 6.52% | 9.72% | 6.38% | 5.43% | 12.54% | −0.28% | 23.83% | 4.19% | 10.68% |
IND | −9.36679 | 21.00008 | 20.41139 | −2.12263 | −7.76025 | −18.5349 | −12.1428 | −8.25111 | −15.8406 | −2.79909 | −9.70951 | −2.52496 | −13.6709 | −61.3121 |
(%) | 73.65% | 82.16% | 102.56% | 37.97% | 64.84% | 70.63% | 58.68% | 76.97% | 70.33% | 82.59% | 106.71% | 71.89% | 75.09% | 61.80% |
CON | −0.30295 | 0.022535 | −0.01982 | −0.0365 | −0.05359 | −0.31822 | −0.21585 | 0.082053 | −0.10174 | 0.070889 | −0.05901 | 0.004664 | −0.15079 | −1.07833 |
(%) | 2.38% | 0.09% | −0.10% | 0.65% | 0.45% | 1.21% | 1.04% | −0.77% | 0.45% | −2.09% | 0.65% | −0.13% | 0.83% | 1.09% |
SER | −1.75786 | 2.928696 | 0.851065 | −0.46182 | −1.5755 | −3.51179 | −3.77597 | −1.03688 | −2.40926 | 0.103863 | 1.001337 | −0.28151 | −1.98613 | −11.9118 |
(%) | 13.82% | 11.46% | 4.28% | 8.26% | 13.16% | 13.38% | 18.25% | 9.67% | 10.70% | −3.06% | −11.01% | 8.02% | 10.91% | 12.01% |
Factors | EFagr | EFind | EFcon | EFser | EF | EC/GDP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EFagr | 1 | - | - | - | - | - |
EFind | 0.2174 | 1 | - | - | - | - |
EFcon | 0.1660 | 0.6740 ** | 1 | - | - | - |
EFser | 0.4888 | 0.8103 ** | 0.8038 ** | 1 | - | - |
EF | 0.3501 | 0.9860 ** | 0.7173 ** | 0.8887 ** | 1 | - |
Econimic carbon Intensity | 0.4991 | 0.8974 ** | 0.6810 ** | 0.9093 ** | 0.9434 ** | 1 |
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Zhang, P.; Duan, M.; Yin, G. The Periodic Characteristics of China’s Economic Carbon Intensity Change and the Impacts of Economic Transformation. Energies 2018, 11, 961. https://doi.org/10.3390/en11040961
Zhang P, Duan M, Yin G. The Periodic Characteristics of China’s Economic Carbon Intensity Change and the Impacts of Economic Transformation. Energies. 2018; 11(4):961. https://doi.org/10.3390/en11040961
Chicago/Turabian StyleZhang, Peng, Maosheng Duan, and Guangzhi Yin. 2018. "The Periodic Characteristics of China’s Economic Carbon Intensity Change and the Impacts of Economic Transformation" Energies 11, no. 4: 961. https://doi.org/10.3390/en11040961