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VIX Futures as a Market Timing Indicator

Department of Accounting and Finance, University of Thessaly, Larissa 41110, Greece
Department of Business Studies, American College of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki 55535, Greece
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2019, 12(3), 113;
Received: 10 June 2019 / Revised: 24 June 2019 / Accepted: 28 June 2019 / Published: 1 July 2019
(This article belongs to the Section Financial Markets)
PDF [444 KB, uploaded 5 July 2019]


Our work relates to the literature supporting that the VIX also mirrors investor sentiment and, thus, contains useful information regarding future S&P500 returns. The objective of this empirical analysis is to verify if the shape of the volatility futures term structure has signaling effects regarding future equity price movements, as several investors believe. Our findings generally support the hypothesis that the VIX term structure can be employed as a contrarian market timing indicator. The empirical analysis of this study has important practical implications for financial market practitioners, as it shows that they can use the VIX futures term structure not only as a proxy of market expectations on forward volatility, but also as a stock market timing tool. View Full-Text
Keywords: VIX futures; volatility term structure; future equity returns; S&P500 VIX futures; volatility term structure; future equity returns; S&P500

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Fassas, A.P.; Hourvouliades, N. VIX Futures as a Market Timing Indicator. J. Risk Financial Manag. 2019, 12, 113.

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