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J. Risk Financial Manag. 2019, 12(1), 22; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm12010022

Does the Misery Index Influence a U.S. President’s Political Re-Election Prospects?

1
R.B Pamplin School of Business Administration, University of Portland, Portland, OR 97203, USA
2
Department of Economics, Macquarie University, North Ryde, Sydney, NSW 2109, Australia
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 12 December 2018 / Revised: 27 January 2019 / Accepted: 28 January 2019 / Published: 1 February 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Applied Econometrics)
Full-Text   |   PDF [226 KB, uploaded 1 February 2019]

Abstract

We seek to determine whether a United States President’s job approval rating is influenced by the Misery Index. This hypothesis is examined in two ways. First, we employ a nonlinear model that includes several macroeconomic variables: the current account deficit, exchange rate, unemployment, inflation, and mortgage rates. Second, we employ probit and logit regression models to calculate the probabilities of U.S. Presidents’ approval ratings to the Misery Index. The results suggest that Layton’s model does not perform well when adopted for the United States. Conversely, the probit and logit regression analysis suggests that the Misery Index significantly impacts the probability of the approval of U.S. Presidents’ performances. View Full-Text
Keywords: Misery Index; inflation; unemployment; Probit and Logit models; Okun’s law Misery Index; inflation; unemployment; Probit and Logit models; Okun’s law
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (CC BY 4.0).
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Adrangi, B.; Macri, J. Does the Misery Index Influence a U.S. President’s Political Re-Election Prospects? J. Risk Financial Manag. 2019, 12, 22.

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