Motorized Two-Wheeled Vehicles Contribute Disproportionately to the Increase in Pandemic-Period Road Traffic Fatalities in New York State
Highlights
- Roadway mortality was declining in New York State before the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Since the pandemic, mortality increased and did not return to pre-pandemic levels as the pandemic receded.
- This work improves our scientific understanding of the factors contributing to the COVID-19 road mortality increase in New York State.
- Access to shared motorized two-wheeled vehicles, such as e-bikes, is proliferating ahead of injury prevention strategies to address the mortality increase.
- Improvement of data surveillance systems is needed to better characterize the growth of emerging two-wheeled electric vehicles and vehicle types.
- Identification of motorized two-wheeled vehicles as a significant contributor to the increase in pandemic-era roadway mortality can be used to inform the development of countermeasures related to this transportation mode.
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Population
2.2. Data Source(s)
2.3. Study Design
2.4. Variable Classifications
2.4.1. Pillar 1: Road User-Level Characteristics
2.4.2. Pillar 2: Vehicle and Vehicle Crash Level Characteristics
2.4.3. Pillar 3: Roadway Characteristics
2.4.4. Pillar 4: Speeding
2.4.5. Pillar 5: Post-Crash Care
2.5. Statistical Analysis
3. Results
3.1. Pillar 1: Road User Characteristics
3.2. Pillar 2: Vehicle Characteristics
3.3. Pillar 3: Roadway Characteristics
3.4. Pillar 4: Speeding
3.5. Pillar 5: Post Crash Care
3.6. Independent Risk Factors for Mortality for Persons on Motorized Two- and Three-Wheeler Vehicles
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
| NYS | New York State |
| FARS | Fatality Analysis Reporting System |
| U.S. | United States |
| GDL | Graduated driver license |
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| Mortality Pre-COVID | Mortality COVID Era | Total Mortality | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Change | 1 April 2017–31 December 2019 | 1 April 2020–31 December 2022 | 1 April 2017–31 December 2022 | Chi-square | ||
| n (%) | X2 (p-value) | |||||
| n (%) | 40.2 | n = 428 | n = 600 | n = 1028 1 | ||
| Pillar I: Rider characteristics | ||||||
| Type | 428 | 600 | 1028 | 0.436 (0.509) | ||
| Drivers | 41.8 | 404 (94.4) | 573 (95.5) | 977 (95.0) | ||
| Passengers | 12.5 | 24 (5.6) | 27 (4.5) | 51 (5.0) | ||
| Age, Drivers (years) | 404 | 571 | 975 | 13.442 (0.062) | ||
| ≤19 | 21.4 | 14 (3.5) | 17 (3.0) | 31 (3.2) | ||
| 20–29 | 14.3 | 140 (34.7) | 160 (28.0) | 300 (30.8) | ||
| 30–39 | 92.7 | 82 (20.3) | 158 (27.7) | 240 (24.6) | ||
| 40–64 | 33.6 | 143 (35.4) | 191 (33.5) | 334 (34.3) | ||
| 65 and over | 80.0 | 25 (6.2) | 45 (7.9) | 70 (7.2) | ||
| Sex | 428 | 600 | 1028 | 0.004 (0.947) | ||
| Male | 40.7 | 396 (92.5) | 557 (92.8) | 953 (92.7) | ||
| Drivers | 41.0 | 393 (91.8) | 554 (92.3) | 947 (92.1) | ||
| Passengers | 0.0 | 3 (0.7) | 3 (0.5) | 6 (0.6) | ||
| Female | 34.4 | 32 (7.5) | 43 (7.2) | 75 (7.3) | ||
| Drivers | 72.7 | 11 (2.6) | 19 (3.2) | 30 (2.9) | ||
| Passengers | 14.3 | 21 (4.9) | 24 (4.0) | 45 (4.4) | ||
| Helmet, wearing | ||||||
| Total study population (n) | 424 | 600 | 1024 | 23.478 (<0.0001) | ||
| No | 270.4 | 27 (6.4) | 100 (16.7) | 127 (12.4) | ||
| Yes | 25.3 | 384 (90.6) | 481 (80.2) | 865 (84.5) | ||
| Unknown | 46.2 | 13 (3.1) | 19 (3.2) | 32 (3.1) | ||
| Drivers (n) | 400 | 573 | 973 | 20.744 (<0.0001) | ||
| No | 268.0 | 25 (6.3) | 92 (16.1) | 117 (12.0) | ||
| Yes | 27.3 | 363 (90.8) | 462 (80.6) | 825 (84.8) | ||
| Unknown | 58.3 | 12 (3.0) | 19 (3.3) | 31 (3.2) | ||
| Alcohol-involved, Drivers | 404 | 573 | 977 | 1.845 (0.174) | ||
| No | 49.8 | 291 (72.0) | 436 (76.1) | 727 (74.4) | ||
| Yes | 21.2 | 113 (28.0) | 137 (23.9) | 250 (25.6) | ||
| License Type, Drivers | 404 | 573 | 977 | 21.719 (<0.0001) | ||
| Full license | 23.7 | 363 (89.9) | 449 (78.4) | 812 (83.1) | ||
| Intermediate GDL/Learner’s Permit 2 | 325.0 | 4 (1.0) | 17 (3.0) | 21 (2.1) | ||
| No License | 188.6 | 35 (8.7) | 101 (17.6) | 136 (13.9) | ||
| Other | 200.0 | 2 (0.5) | 6 (1.0) | 8 (0.8) | ||
| Pillar II: Vehicle Characteristics | ||||||
| Vehicle type | 428 | 600 | 1028 | 25.605 (<0.0001) | ||
| Motorcycle, 2-wheeler | 25.6 | 407 (95.1) | 511 (85.2) | 918 (89.3) | ||
| Motorcycle, 3-wheeler | 100.0 | 3 (0.7) | 6 (1.0) | 9 (0.9) | ||
| Motorcycle, off-road | 375.0 | 4 (0.9) | 19 (3.2) | 23 (2.2) | ||
| Moped, motor scooter/minibikes | 361.5 | 13 (3.0) | 60 (10.0) | 73 (7.1) | ||
| Motorcycle, unknown type | 300.0 | 1 (0.2) | 4 (0.7) | 5 (0.5) | ||
| Number of Vehicles | 428 | 600 | 1028 | 3.411 (0.182) | ||
| Single | 29.93 | 147 (34.3) | 191 (31.8) | 338 (32.9) | ||
| Two | 38.74 | 253 (59.1) | 351 (58.5) | 604 (58.8) | ||
| Multiple (2+) | 107.14 | 28 (6.5) | 58 (9.7) | 86 (8.4) | ||
| Collision type | 428 | 598 | 1026 | 1.947 (0.856) | ||
| Not a collision with MV in transport | 38.51 | 174 (40.7) | 241 (40.3) | 415 (40.4) | ||
| Angle | 25.58 | 43 (10.0) | 54 (9.0) | 97 (9.5) | ||
| Head-on | 38.00 | 50 (11.7) | 69 (11.5) | 119 (11.6) | ||
| Rear-end | 38.62 | 145 (33.9) | 201 (33.6) | 346 (33.7) | ||
| Sideswipe | 107.14 | 14 (3.3) | 29 (4.8) | 43 (4.2) | ||
| Other | 100.00 | 2 (0.5) | 4 (0.7) | 6 (0.6) | ||
| Vehicle maneuver at crash | 428 | 600 | 1028 | 7.286 (0.506) | ||
| Going straight | 44.8 | 248 (57.9) | 359 (59.8) | 607 (59.0) | ||
| Negotiating a curve | 24.0 | 125 (29.2) | 155 (25.8) | 280 (27.2) | ||
| Turning/changing/merging lanes | 33.3 | 21 (4.9) | 28 (4.7) | 45 (4.4) | ||
| Passing or overtaking | 53.9 | 26 (6.1) | 40 (6.7) | 66 (6.4) | ||
| Other | 125.0 | 8 (1.9) | 18 (3.0) | 26 (2.5) | ||
| Pillar IV: Speed | ||||||
| Speed-related crash | 428 | 600 | 1028 | 0.016 (0.901) | ||
| No | 41.7 | 235 (54.9) | 333 (55.5) | 568 (55.3) | ||
| Yes | 38.3 | 193 (45.1) | 267 (44.5) | 460 (44.7) | ||
| Mortality Pre-COVID | Mortality COVID Era | Total Mortality 1 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Change | 1 April 2017–31 December 2019 | 1 April 2020–31 December 2022 | 1 April 2017–31 December 2022 | Chi-square | ||
| n (%) | X2 (p-value) | |||||
| Pillar III: Roadway Characteristics | ||||||
| Urbanization | 18.502 (<0.0001) | |||||
| Rural | −8.50 | 153 (35.7) | 140 (23.3) | 293 (28.5) | ||
| Urban | 67.88 | 274 (64.0) | 460 (76.7) | 734 (71.4) | ||
| RUCC rankings | 8.878 (0.012) | |||||
| Metropolitan | 49.17 | 362 (84.6) | 540 (90.0) | 902 (87.7) | ||
| Non-metropolitan, adjacent | −1.72 | 58 (13.6) | 57 (9.5) | 115 (11.2) | ||
| Non-metropolitan, non-adjacent | −62.50 | 8 (1.9) | 3 (0.5) | 11 (1.1) | ||
| NY State geographical area | 2.248 (0.325) | |||||
| New York City | 63.83 | 94 (22.5) | 154 (26.1) | 248 (24.6) | ||
| Long Island | 21.13 | 71 (17.0) | 86 (14.6) | 157 (15.6) | ||
| Upstate | 38.89 | 252 (60.4) | 350 (59.3) | 602 (59.8) | ||
| Number of lanes | 1.528 (0.676) | |||||
| One | 86.67 | 15 (3.5) | 28 (4.8) | 43 (4.3) | ||
| Two or more, one-way traffic | 0.00 | 12 (2.8) | 12 (2.1) | 24 (2.4) | ||
| Two or more, two-way traffic, divided | 38.10 | 105 (24.8) | 145 (24.8) | 250 (24.8) | ||
| Two or more, two-way traffic, not divided | 37.46 | 291 (68.8) | 400 (68.4) | 691 (68.6) | ||
| Intersection type | 6.926 (0.074) | |||||
| Not an intersection | 51.94 | 258 (60.3) | 392 (65.3) | 650 (63.2) | ||
| Four-way intersection | 35.56 | 90 (21.0) | 122 (20.3) | 212 (20.6) | ||
| T and Y intersections | 3.75 | 80 (18.7) | 83 (13.8) | 163 (15.9) | ||
| Road surface | 5.589 (0.133) | |||||
| Non-trafficway area/driveway access | -- | 0 (0.0) | 1 (0.2) | 1 (0.1) | ||
| Dry | 42.22 | 405 (94.6) | 576 (96.0) | 981 (95.4) | ||
| Wet, water | −28.57 | 21 (4.9) | 15 (2.5) | 36 (3.5) | ||
| Other/not reported/unknown | 250.00 | 2 (0.5) | 8 (1.3) | 10 (1.0) | ||
| Weather | 5.492 (0.139) | |||||
| Clear conditions | 46.36 | 330 (77.1) | 483 (80.5) | 813 (79.1) | ||
| Rain | −40.00 | 10 (2.3) | 6 (1.0) | 16 (1.6) | ||
| Cloudy | 27.38 | 84 (19.6) | 107 (17.8) | 191 (18.6) | ||
| Fog/smog/smoke/crosswinds, other | −66.67 | 4 (0.1) | 4 (0.07) | 8 (0.07) | ||
| Traffic control devices | 7.708 (0.103) | |||||
| No controls | 31.45 | 337 (78.7) | 443 (73.8) | 780 (75.9) | ||
| Traffic control signal | 59.38 | 64 (15.0) | 102 (17.0) | 166 (16.1) | ||
| Stop sign | −50.00 | 12 (2.8) | 6 (1.0) | 18 (1.8) | ||
| Yield sign | -- | 0 (0.0) | 1 (0.2) | 1 (0.1) | ||
| Other signs/signals | -- | 0 (0.0) | 2 (0.3) | 2 (0.2) | ||
| Unknown/not reported | 206.67 | 15 (3.5) | 46 (7.7) | 61 (5.9) | ||
| Lighting conditions | 3.067 (0.216) | |||||
| Daylight | 43.21 | 243 (56.8) | 348 (58.0) | 591 (57.5) | ||
| Dark, not lighted | 26.00 | 50 (11.7) | 63 (10.5) | 113 (11.0) | ||
| Dark, lighted | 52.94 | 102 (23.8) | 156 (26.0) | 258 (25.1) | ||
| Dawn | 25.00 | 4 (0.9) | 5 (0.8) | 9 (0.9) | ||
| Dusk | −14.29 | 28 (6.5) | 24 (4.0) | 52 (5.1) | ||
| Unknown/not reported | 300.00 | 1 (0.2) | 4 (0.7) | 5 (0.5) | ||
| Pillar V: Post Crash Care | ||||||
| DOA 2 | 1028 | 1.733 (0.188) | ||||
| Not dead at scene or en route | 31.6 | 291 (68.0) | 383 (63.8) | 674 (65.6) | ||
| Yes, DOA | 58.4 | 137 (32.0) | 217 (36.2) | 354 (34.4) | ||
| Dead at scene | 60.4 | 134 (97.8) | 215 (99.1) | 349 (98.6) | ||
| Dead en route | −33.3 | 3 (2.2) | 2 (0.9) | 5 (1.4) | ||
| Mode of transport | 4.863 (0.088) | |||||
| Not transported | 62.22 | 135 (24.0) | 219 (36.5) | 354 (30.4) | ||
| Ambulance, ground | 26.83 | 287 (51.0) | 364 (60.7) | 651 (56.0) | ||
| Ambulance, air | 150.00 | 6 (1.1) | 15 (2.5) | 21 (1.8) | ||
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Pressley, J.C.; Aziz, Z.; Hines, L.; Guzman, J.; Pawlowski, E.; Bauer, M. Motorized Two-Wheeled Vehicles Contribute Disproportionately to the Increase in Pandemic-Period Road Traffic Fatalities in New York State. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2025, 22, 1883. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph22121883
Pressley JC, Aziz Z, Hines L, Guzman J, Pawlowski E, Bauer M. Motorized Two-Wheeled Vehicles Contribute Disproportionately to the Increase in Pandemic-Period Road Traffic Fatalities in New York State. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2025; 22(12):1883. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph22121883
Chicago/Turabian StylePressley, Joyce C., Zarah Aziz, Leah Hines, Jancarlos Guzman, Emilia Pawlowski, and Michael Bauer. 2025. "Motorized Two-Wheeled Vehicles Contribute Disproportionately to the Increase in Pandemic-Period Road Traffic Fatalities in New York State" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 22, no. 12: 1883. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph22121883
APA StylePressley, J. C., Aziz, Z., Hines, L., Guzman, J., Pawlowski, E., & Bauer, M. (2025). Motorized Two-Wheeled Vehicles Contribute Disproportionately to the Increase in Pandemic-Period Road Traffic Fatalities in New York State. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 22(12), 1883. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph22121883

