Exploring Health Trends Prior to State Pension Age for The Netherlands up to 2040
Abstract
:1. Background
2. Material and Methods
2.1. Study Samples
2.2. Variables
2.2.1. Demographics
2.2.2. Health
3. Calculation
3.1. Main Analyses
3.2. Weighting
3.3. Historical Health Trend
4. Results
4.1. Scenarios
4.1.1. Good Health
4.1.2. Poor Health
4.1.3. Population Estimates
5. Discussion
5.1. Contextualizing the Results
5.2. Methodological Considerations
Strengths and Limitations
5.3. Implications for Practice and Further Research
6. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Year | State Pension Age * |
---|---|
2016 | 65 + 6 months |
2017 | 65 + 9 months |
2018 | 66 |
2019–2021 | 66 + 4 months |
2022 | 66 + 7 months |
2023 | 66 + 10 months |
2024–2027 | 67 |
2028–2030 | 67 + 3 months |
2031–2033 | 67 + 6 months |
2034–2037 | 67 + 9 months |
2038–2040 | 68 |
1990–2017 | 1997–2017 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Men | Women | Men | Women | |
55–60 | ||||
Good health | 0.144 * | 0.073 * | 0.055 * | 0.084 * |
Moderate Health | −0.110 * | −0.047 * | −0.053 * | −0.046 |
Poor health | −0.034 * | −0.026 | −0.002 | −0.038 |
60–65 | ||||
Good health | 0.047 * | 0.077 * | 0.001 | 0.017 |
Moderate Health | −0.013 | −0.071 * | −0.003 | −0.026 |
Poor health | −0.034 * | −0.006 | 0.002 | 0.009 |
65–70 | ||||
Good health | 0.122 * | 0.158 * | 0.088 * | 0.114 * |
Moderate Health | −0.083 * | −0.065* | −0.060 * | −0.074 * |
Poor health | −0.040 * | −0.095* | −0.028 | −0.040 |
70–75 | ||||
Good health | 0.111 * | 0.169 * | 0.082 * | 0.171 * |
Moderate Health | −0.062 * | −0.057 * | −0.055 | −0.084 * |
Poor health | −0.049 * | −0.112 * | −0.027 | −0.089 * |
2016 | 2030 | 2040 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Scenario A | Scenario B | Scenario A | Scenario B | ||
Men | |||||
Good health | 367 | +193 (+53%) | +232 (+63%) | +124 (+34%) | +183 (+50%) |
Moderate health | 142 | +73 (+52%) | +49 (+35%) | +50 (+35%) | +13 (+9%) |
Poor health | 67 | +34 (+50%) | +20 (+29%) | +25 (+37%) | +2 (+4%) |
Total | 576 | +300 (+52%) | +300 (+52%) | +199 (+34%) | +199 (+34%) |
Women | |||||
Good health | 371 | +198 (+53%) | +224 (+60%) | +147 (+40%) | +188 (+51%) |
Moderate health | 127 | +67 (+53%) | +52 (+41%) | +51 (+40%) | +26 (+21%) |
Poor health | 81 | +43 (+53%) | +32 (+40%) | +33 (+40%) | +16 (+20%) |
Total | 579 | +308 (+53%) | +308 (+53%) | +230 (+40%) | +230 (+40%) |
Men and women | |||||
Good health | 738 | +391 (+53%) | +456 (+62%) | +271 (+37%) | +372 (+50%) |
Moderate health | 268 | +140 (+52%) | +101 (+38%) | +100 (+37%) | +39 (+14%) |
Poor health | 149 | +77 (+52%) | +52 (+35%) | +58 (+39%) | +19 (+12%) |
Total | 1154 | +608 (+53%) | +608 (+53%) | +429 (+37%) | +429 (+37%) |
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van der Noordt, M.; Polder, J.J.; Plasmans, M.H.D.; Hilderink, H.B.M.; Deeg, D.J.H.; van Tilburg, T.G.; van der Pas, S.; van der Lucht, F. Exploring Health Trends Prior to State Pension Age for The Netherlands up to 2040. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2022, 19, 4209. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19074209
van der Noordt M, Polder JJ, Plasmans MHD, Hilderink HBM, Deeg DJH, van Tilburg TG, van der Pas S, van der Lucht F. Exploring Health Trends Prior to State Pension Age for The Netherlands up to 2040. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2022; 19(7):4209. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19074209
Chicago/Turabian Stylevan der Noordt, Maaike, Johan J. Polder, Marjanne H. D. Plasmans, Henk B. M. Hilderink, Dorly J. H. Deeg, Theo G. van Tilburg, Suzan van der Pas, and Fons van der Lucht. 2022. "Exploring Health Trends Prior to State Pension Age for The Netherlands up to 2040" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19, no. 7: 4209. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19074209