County-Wide Mortality Assessments Attributable to PM2.5 Emissions from Coal Consumption in Taiwan
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. County-Level PM2.5 Estimates Using GTx Modeling
- Mean fractional bias (MFB) for PM2.5 model validation should fall in intervals of ±35%.
- 2.
- The mean fractional error (MFE) for PM2.5 model validation should be in intervals less than 55%.
- 3.
- The correlation coefficient (R) for PM2.5 model validation should be higher than 0.5.
2.2. Estimation of the Population-Attributable Fraction of Mortality Attributable to PM2.5
2.3. Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses
3. Results
3.1. Comparison of PM2.5 Observation and Estimates by GTx Modeling
3.2. Spatial Distribution of Population and PM2.5 Observations in Taiwan
3.3. Counties Affected by PM2.5 from CP and CHP Plants and Maximum Distance
3.4. Assessment of Adult Deaths and Premature Deaths Attributable to PM2.5
4. Discussion and Limitations
4.1. GTx Modeling
4.2. Assessing Health Impacts
4.3. Limitations
5. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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City/County (No. of CP, No. of CHP) | Coal-Fired Power (CP) Plants [T/y] | Coal-Fired Combined Heat and Power (CHP) Plants [T/y] | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emi_PM2.5 | Emi_SO2 | Emi_NOx | Emi_PM2.5_eq 1 | Emi_PM2.5 | Emi_SO2 | Emi_NOx | Emi_PM2.5_eq 1 | |
Taipei City (0 CP, 0 CHP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Taichung City (1 CP, 2 CHPs) | 1235.44 | 14,886.12 | 23,188.26 | 63,197.19 | 98.16 | 402.38 | 1074.71 | 2465.81 |
Tainan City (0 CP, 2 CHPs) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 43.96 | 867.92 | 734.83 | 2072.06 |
Kaohsiung City (1 CP, 9 CHPs) | 683.09 | 10,836.69 | 13,353.18 | 40,334.08 | 158.92 | 2351.76 | 4517.76 | 11,269.31 |
Keelung City (0 CP, 0 CHP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hsinchu City (0 CP, 0 CHP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Chiayi City (0 CP, 0 CHP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
New Taipei City (1 CP, 2 CHPs) | 70.17 | 1180.68 | 4071.76 | 8437.75 | 4.39 | 171.85 | 1277.85 | 2282.07 |
Taoyuan City (0 CP, 6 CHPs) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 53.40 | 1007.83 | 2431.44 | 5580.89 |
Hsinchu County (0 CP, 1 CHP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.06 | 110.28 | 518.48 | 1005.32 |
Miaoli County (0 CP, 2 CHPs) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 105.24 | 497.23 | 2874.67 | 5423.11 |
Changhua County (0 CP, 1 CHP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15.82 | 95.21 | 470.38 | 910.24 |
Nantou County (0 CP, 0 CHP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Yunlin County (1 CP, 4 CHPs) | 190.46 | 1930.53 | 3268.29 | 8629.86 | 306.23 | 3418.55 | 6458.40 | 16,288.36 |
Chiayi County (0 CP, 2 CHPs) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 56.48 | 661.90 | 3155.52 | 6097.40 |
Pingtung County (0 CP, 0 CHP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ilan County (0 CP, 1 CHP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17.29 | 91.00 | 249.62 | 562.91 |
Hualien County (1 CP, 0 CHP) | 302.97 | 3247.22 | 2584.39 | 10,008.41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Taitung County (0 CP, 1 CHP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.45 | 56.80 | 76.02 | 224.60 |
Taiwan (5 CPs, 33 CHPs) | 2482.15 | 32,081.25 | 46,475.88 | 130,607.30 | 877.39 | 9732.71 | 23,839.70 | 54,812.10 |
Model Parameters | Contents or Description |
---|---|
Version Applied | GTx executed in backward-trajectory mode (traj.79.LatLon and pm.1.010) |
Model Duration | Estimation period of 168 h was considered in forward-trajectory mode Modeling duration was from 1 January to 31 December 2013 |
Meteorological Data | Data were obtained from the air quality monitoring network (AQMN) installed by Taiwan Environmental Protection Agency (75 sites), Taiwan Central Weather Bureau (CWB; 30 sites), and Taiwan Power Company (Taipower; 12 sites) |
Emission Data | Data were obtained from the Taiwan Emission Data System (TEDS) version 9.0 (built in 2013) with five revisions:
|
Altitude Meteorological Data | National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) NW & SW or CWB Banqiao & Hualien sites |
Concentration from overseas | PM2.5 = max(PM2.5 at Yangmingshan AQMN minus 10 μg/m3, 0) and max(PM2.5 at Hengchun AQMN minus 5 μg/m3, 0); then using linear interpolation with geographic location |
Major Revision | Dry deposition velocity of NOy was set as five times of NOx. |
City/ County | Observed PM2.5 in 2013 | 10-Year Averaged PM2.5 | PM2.5 Emitted from 5 CP Plants | PM2.5 Emitted from 33 CHP Plants | PM2.5 Emitted from the Total Coal-Fired Plants |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Taipei City | 24.65 | 26.33 (0.87) | 0.60 (0.06) | 0.27 (0.01) | 0.87 (0.07) |
Taichung City | 30.93 | 34.60 (0.51) | 1.26 (0.10) | 0.64 (0.10) | 1.90 (0.15) |
Tainan City | 35.98 | 38.54 (0.29) | 1.63 (0.13) | 0.96 (0.04) | 2.59 (0.14) |
Kaohsiung City | 39.31 | 44.14 (0.34) | 1.66 (0.05) | 1.27 (0.06) | 2.94 (0.08) |
Keelung City | 18.37 | 22.00 (0.20) | 0.80 (NR) | 0.29 (NR) | 1.09 (NR) |
Hsinchu City | 30.28 | 30.52 (0.17) | 0.86 (NR) | 0.55 (NR) | 1.40 (NR) |
Chiayi City | 40.48 | 44.39 (0.22) | 1.68 (NR) | 1.11 (NR) | 2.79 (NR) |
New Taipei City | 25.40 | 26.22 (0.45) | 0.86 (0.10) | 0.40 (0.02) | 1.26 (0.10) |
Taoyuan City | 25.79 | 27.65 (0.40) | 1.01 (0.13) | 0.61 (0.03) | 1.62 (0.13) |
Hsinchu County | 25.23 | 27.63 (0.69) | 0.80 (0.06) | 0.53 (0.03) | 1.32 (0.07) |
Miaoli County | 26.60 | 28.20 (0.27) | 2.22 (0.74) | 1.59 (0.57) | 3.81 (0.93) |
Changhua County | 32.79 | 35.35 (0.66) | 1.53 (0.10) | 0.56 (0.03) | 2.08 (0.11) |
Nantou County | 35.09 | 36.63 (0.57) | 4.22 (1.36) | 1.42 (0.18) | 5.64 (1.37) |
Yunlin County | 32.85 | 35.17 (1.22) | 2.04 (0.42) | 1.06 (0.09) | 3.10 (0.43) |
Chiayi County | 32.93 | 37.15 (0.57) | 1.58 (0.05) | 1.00 (0.12) | 2.58 (0.13) |
Pingtung County | 32.87 | 33.33 (3.39) | 1.15 (0.29) | 0.72 (0.07) | 1.87 (0.30) |
Ilan County | 19.55 | 19.56 (0.29) | 0.42 (0.10) | 0.19 (0.09) | 0.61 (0.13) |
Hualien County | 18.40 | 20.14 (0.19) | 0.74 (NR) | 0.03 (NR) | 0.77 (NR) |
Taitung County | 13.09 | 13.66 (0.14) | 0.19 (NR) | 0.13 (NR) | 0.32 (NR) |
Taiwan | 28.45 | 30.59 (4.05) | 1.33 (0.89) | 0.70 (0.45) | 2.03 (1.29) |
Plant No. | No. of County | No. of AQMN | Max Affected Distance 1 |
---|---|---|---|
CP#01 | 8 | 30 | 174 km |
CP#02 | 16 | 66 | 193 km |
CP#03 | 6 | 18 | 155 km |
CP#04 | 8 | 35 | 272 km |
CP#05 | 4 | 12 | 183 km |
CHP#01 | 0 | 0 | 0 km |
CHP#02 | 0 | 0 | 0 km |
CHP#03 | 0 | 0 | 0 km |
CHP#04 | 0 | 0 | 0 km |
CHP#05 | 0 | 0 | 0 km |
CHP#06 | 0 | 0 | 0 km |
CHP#07 | 0 | 3 | 18 km |
CHP#08 | 0 | 1 | 8 km |
CHP#09 | 0 | 0 | 0 km |
CHP#10 | 5 | 11 | 96 km |
CHP#11 | 0 | 1 | 4 km |
CHP#12 | 0 | 1 | 11 km |
CHP#13 | 0 | 6 | 23 km |
CHP#14 | 0 | 0 | 0 km |
CHP#15 | 0 | 1 | 3 km |
CHP#16 | 0 | 3 | 10 km |
CHP#17 | 0 | 1 | 1 km |
CHP#18 | 0 | 0 | 0 km |
CHP#19 | 2 | 13 | 31 km |
CHP#20 | 0 | 0 | 0 km |
CHP#21 | 0 | 0 | 0 km |
CHP#22 | 0 | 0 | 0 km |
CHP#23 | 6 | 17 | 151 km |
CHP#24 | 0 | 0 | 0 km |
CHP#25 | 0 | 0 | 0 km |
CHP#26 | 1 | 2 | 11 km |
CHP#27 | 6 | 18 | 157 km |
CHP#28 | 1 | 2 | 8 km |
CHP#29 | 0 | 2 | 10 km |
CHP#30 | 4 | 11 | 107 km |
CHP#31 | 1 | 2 | 8 km |
CHP#32 | 1 | 1 | 2 km |
CHP#33 | 1 | 1 | 7 km |
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Chio, C.-P.; Lo, W.-C.; Tsuang, B.-J.; Hu, C.-C.; Ku, K.-C.; Wang, Y.-S.; Chen, Y.-J.; Lin, H.-H.; Chan, C.-C. County-Wide Mortality Assessments Attributable to PM2.5 Emissions from Coal Consumption in Taiwan. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2022, 19, 1599. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19031599
Chio C-P, Lo W-C, Tsuang B-J, Hu C-C, Ku K-C, Wang Y-S, Chen Y-J, Lin H-H, Chan C-C. County-Wide Mortality Assessments Attributable to PM2.5 Emissions from Coal Consumption in Taiwan. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2022; 19(3):1599. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19031599
Chicago/Turabian StyleChio, Chia-Pin, Wei-Cheng Lo, Ben-Jei Tsuang, Chieh-Chun Hu, Kai-Chen Ku, Yi-Sheng Wang, Yung-Jen Chen, Hsien-Ho Lin, and Chang-Chuan Chan. 2022. "County-Wide Mortality Assessments Attributable to PM2.5 Emissions from Coal Consumption in Taiwan" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19, no. 3: 1599. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19031599