An Exploration of the Multiplicative Effect of “Other People” and Other Environmental Effects on Violence in the Night-Time Environment
Abstract
:1. Introduction
1.1. Enticements in the Night-Time Environment
1.2. Other People
1.3. Queueing
1.4. Summary
2. Methods
2.1. Data
2.1.1. Assault-Related Injury
2.1.2. Estimating Footfall
2.1.3. Estimating Footfall in Cardiff
2.1.4. Sporting Events
2.1.5. Weather
2.1.6. Public Holidays
2.2. Analytic Strategy
3. Results
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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95% CI | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Mean | Proportion 1 | Lower | Upper | |
Assault-related visits | 2.210 | 2.089 | 2.331 | |
Female | 0.503 | 0.458 | 0.548 | |
Male | 1.707 | 1.602 | 1.813 | |
Footfall index (evenings) | 514.19 | 490.33 | 538.06 | |
Temperature (°F) | 52.518 | 52.005 | 53.032 | |
Rainfall (inches) | 0.088 | 0.076 | 0.100 | |
Rugby at home | 0.017 | 0.010 | 0.026 | |
Rugby away | 0.013 | 0.007 | 0.022 | |
Bank holiday | 0.022 | 0.014 | 0.033 | |
N = 1129 8 p.m. to 4 a.m. sessions |
95% CI | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Log Footfall | β | Lower | Upper | p | |
Rugby at home | 3.704 | 2.870 | 4.538 | <0.001 | |
Rugby away | 0.045 | −0.862 | 0.952 | 0.923 | |
Temperature | −0.037 | −0.064 | −0.011 | 0.006 | |
Rainfall | 0.627 | 0.061 | 1.194 | 0.030 | |
Bank holiday | −1.196 | −2.008 | −0.383 | 0.004 | |
Bank holiday (day before) | 3.304 | 2.492 | 4.116 | <0.001 | |
Day of week (reference = Sunday) | |||||
Monday | 0.751 | 0.387 | 1.114 | <0.001 | |
Tuesday | 0.703 | 0.261 | 1.145 | 0.002 | |
Wednesday | 1.232 | 0.758 | 1.706 | <0.001 | |
Thursday | 1.480 | 1.008 | 1.951 | <0.001 | |
Friday | 6.575 | 6.132 | 7.018 | <0.001 | |
Saturday | 7.741 | 7.366 | 8.116 | <0.001 | |
Constant | 5.351 | 3.903 | 6.800 | <0.001 | |
N = 1129 8 p.m. to 4 a.m. sessions | |||||
Prais–Winsten AR(1) regression (iterated estimates) | |||||
Durbin–Watson statistic (original) | 0.900 | ||||
Durbin–Watson statistic (transformed) | 2.050 |
95% CI | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Model | β | Lower | Upper | p | R2 | AIC | BIC | ||
I | Footfall | β1 | 0.0034 | 0.0033 | 0.0036 | <0.001 | 0.5576 | 4788.409 | 4793.439 |
II | Footfall | β1 | 1.4419 | 1.3243 | 1.5595 | <0.001 | 0.6151 | 4633.211 | 4643.270 |
β2 | 1.0007 | 1.0007 | 1.0008 | <0.001 | |||||
III | Footfall | β1 | 0.8109 | 0.3865 | 1.2352 | <0.001 | 0.6346 | 4586.422 | 4626.655 |
β2 | 1.0009 | 1.0007 | 1.0011 | <0.001 | |||||
Rugby at home | 2.5420 | 1.6283 | 3.4556 | <0.001 | |||||
Rugby away | 1.3955 | 0.4501 | 2.3409 | <0.01 | |||||
Temperature (°F) | 0.0141 | 0.0047 | 0.0234 | <0.01 | |||||
Rainfall (inches) | −0.0806 | −0.6229 | 0.4616 | 0.770 | |||||
Bank holiday | 0.9236 | 0.1883 | 1.6589 | 0.014 | |||||
Bank holiday (day before) | 0.8678 | 0.1336 | 1.6020 | 0.021 | |||||
IV | Footfall | β1 | 0.0608 | −0.0920 | 0.2136 | 0.435 | 0.6984 | 4383.933 | 4459.369 |
β2 | 1.0016 | 1.0005 | 1.0027 | <0.001 | |||||
Rugby at home | 2.0416 | 1.1833 | 2.8999 | <0.001 | |||||
Rugby away | 0.5812 | −0.2898 | 1.4521 | 0.191 | |||||
Temperature (°F) | 0.0186 | 0.0069 | 0.0302 | <0.01 | |||||
Rainfall (inches) | −0.0518 | −0.5476 | 0.4440 | 0.838 | |||||
Bank holiday | 1.0927 | 0.4008 | 1.7847 | <0.01 | |||||
Bank holiday (day before) | 1.4343 | 0.7407 | 2.1280 | <0.001 | |||||
Sunday | 0.3768 | −0.3711 | 1.1248 | 0.323 | |||||
Monday | 0.3230 | −0.4349 | 1.0809 | 0.403 | |||||
Tuesday | 0.2701 | −0.4823 | 1.0224 | 0.481 | |||||
Wednesday | 0.3565 | −0.4042 | 1.1172 | 0.358 | |||||
Thursday | 0.4196 | −0.3380 | 1.1773 | 0.277 | |||||
Friday | 2.0294 | 1.1904 | 2.8684 | <0.001 | |||||
Saturday | 2.8472 | 1.9644 | 3.7299 | <0.001 |
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Moore, S.C.; Woolley, T.E.; White, J. An Exploration of the Multiplicative Effect of “Other People” and Other Environmental Effects on Violence in the Night-Time Environment. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2022, 19, 16963. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph192416963
Moore SC, Woolley TE, White J. An Exploration of the Multiplicative Effect of “Other People” and Other Environmental Effects on Violence in the Night-Time Environment. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2022; 19(24):16963. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph192416963
Chicago/Turabian StyleMoore, Simon C., Thomas E. Woolley, and James White. 2022. "An Exploration of the Multiplicative Effect of “Other People” and Other Environmental Effects on Violence in the Night-Time Environment" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19, no. 24: 16963. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph192416963