Recurrent Home Flooding in Detroit, MI 2012–2020: Results of a Household Survey
Abstract
:1. Introduction
Research Goals
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Survey of Home Flooding in Detroit
2.2. Neighborhood and Environmental Data
Statistical Methods
3. Results
3.1. Spatial Distribution of Flood Risk in Detroit
3.1.1. Household Level Correlates of Home Flooding
3.1.2. Neighborhood (Census Tract) and Environmental Correlates of Home Flooding
3.1.3. Multivariate Model of Home Flooding
3.1.4. Asthma and Home Flooding
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
References
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[ALL] | No Flood | Flood | OR | p.ratio | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
N = 3842 | N = 1757 | N = 2085 | |||
Own or rent home: | |||||
Own | 2458 (64.0%) | 1241 (70.6%) | 1217 (58.4%) | Ref. | Ref. |
Rent | 1225 (31.9%) | 456 (26.0%) | 769 (36.9%) | 1.72 [1.49;1.98] | <0.001 |
Approximate year house was built | 1929 (22.7) | 1931 (20.0) | 1927 (24.8) | 0.99 [0.99;1.00] | <0.001 |
Year house built (categories): | |||||
Pre 1910 | 653 (17.0%) | 219 (12.5%) | 434 (20.8%) | Ref. | Ref. |
1910–1930 | 986 (25.7%) | 496 (28.2%) | 490 (23.5%) | 0.50 [0.41;0.61] | <0.001 |
1931–1940 | 319 (8.30%) | 192 (10.9%) | 127 (6.09%) | 0.33 [0.25;0.44] | <0.001 |
1941–1945 | 88 (2.29%) | 47 (2.68%) | 41 (1.97%) | 0.44 [0.28;0.69] | <0.001 |
1946–1957 | 540 (14.1%) | 297 (16.9%) | 243 (11.7%) | 0.41 [0.33;0.52] | <0.001 |
1958 or later | 197 (5.13%) | 83 (4.72%) | 114 (5.47%) | 0.69 [0.50;0.96] | 0.029 |
Building sq ft | 1367 (720) | 1354 (690) | 1379 (746) | 1.04 [0.97;1.11] | 0.325 |
Living space sq ft | 1364 (712) | 1353 (689) | 1374 (732) | 1.03 [0.96;1.11] | 0.404 |
Basement sq ft | 819 (274) | 807 (261) | 830 (285) | 1.09 [1.01;1.17] | 0.019 |
Type of basement: | |||||
Finished | 402 (12.5%) | 211 (13.8%) | 191 (11.3%) | Ref. | Ref. |
Unfinished | 2819 (87.5%) | 1322 (86.2%) | 1497 (88.7%) | 1.25 [1.01;1.54] | 0.036 |
[ALL] | No Flood | Flood | OR | p.ratio | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
N = 3842 | N = 1757 | N = 2085 | |||
Roof in good condition: | 680 (17.7%) | 378 (21.5%) | 302 (14.5%) | 0.59 [0.50;0.70] | <0.001 |
Mold on walls of basement: | 2720 (70.8%) | 973 (55.4%) | 1747 (83.8%) | 6.03 [5.09;7.17] | 0.000 |
Moldy smells: | 2633 (68.5%) | 925 (52.6%) | 1708 (81.9%) | 5.51 [4.70;6.49] | 0.000 |
Basement needs repair: | 2639 (68.7%) | 948 (54.0%) | 1691 (81.1%) | 12.4 [10.0;15.5] | 0.000 |
Roof leaks: | 2997 (78.0%) | 1304 (74.2%) | 1693 (81.2%) | 2.04 [1.67;2.49] | <0.001 |
Window leaks: | 3248 (84.5%) | 1465 (83.4%) | 1783 (85.5%) | 1.64 [1.24;2.18] | <0.001 |
Chimney leaks: | 3383 (88.1%) | 1538 (87.5%) | 1845 (88.5%) | 2.06 [1.31;3.32] | 0.002 |
Plumbing leaks: | 3131 (81.5%) | 1360 (77.4%) | 1771 (84.9%) | 2.88 [2.26;3.69] | 0.000 |
No leaks: | 1068 (27.8%) | 647 (36.8%) | 421 (20.2%) | 0.42 [0.36;0.49] | 0.000 |
Foundation cracks: | 2945 (76.7%) | 1243 (70.7%) | 1702 (81.6%) | 2.74 [2.26;3.35] | 0.000 |
Sinks and bathtub drain properly: | 1026 (26.7%) | 541 (30.8%) | 485 (23.3%) | 0.67 [0.58;0.78] | <0.001 |
Uncapped sewer outlets: | 2542 (66.2%) | 1034 (58.9%) | 1508 (72.3%) | 2.21 [1.91;2.57] | 0.000 |
Ever had sewer backups: | 2465 (64.2%) | 638 (36.3%) | 1827 (87.6%) | 16.1 [13.5;19.3] | 0.000 |
[ALL] | No Flood | Flood | OR | p.ratio | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
N = 3842 | N = 1757 | N = 2085 | |||
Census tract poverty (%) | 43.1 (11.5) | 43.0 (11.4) | 43.1 (11.5) | 1.02 [0.95;1.08] | 0.648 |
Census tract under 18 poverty (%) | 59.6 (17.5) | 59.4 (17.6) | 59.8 (17.4) | 1.02 [0.96;1.09] | 0.458 |
Percent African-American | 86.0 (24.1) | 85.8 (23.7) | 86.2 (24.4) | 1.02 [0.94;1.10] | 0.671 |
Percent Hispanic | 7.52 (18.8) | 7.28 (18.4) | 7.73 (19.2) | 1.03 [0.95;1.12] | 0.499 |
Distance to nearest waterway (m) | 4.85 (2.99) | 4.92 (3.04) | 4.79 (2.95) | 0.96 [0.90;1.02] | 0.186 |
Elevation (m) | 189 (7.22) | 189 (7.12) | 189 (7.30) | 0.97 [0.91;1.03] | 0.286 |
Percent of homes owner occupied | 51.0 (13.8) | 51.7 (13.0) | 50.5 (14.3) | 0.92 [0.86;0.98] | 0.008 |
Percent of home built before 1939 | 39.5 (24.3) | 38.9 (24.1) | 40.0 (24.5) | 1.05 [0.98;1.11] | 0.166 |
Dependent Variable: | ||
---|---|---|
Flooding | ||
Full Model | Reduced Model | |
(1) | (2) | |
Census tract poverty (%) | 1.029 (0.895, 1.163) | |
Census tract under 18 poverty (%) | 0.968 (0.846, 1.090) | |
Percent African-American | 1.210 (0.967, 1.453) | 1.073 (0.977, 1.168) |
Distance to nearest waterway (m) | 1.138 (0.904, 1.371) | |
Elevation (m) | 0.975 (0.870, 1.081) | |
Homes owner occupied (%) | 1.009 (0.891, 1.128) | |
Home built before 1939 (%) | 0.941 (0.865, 1.017) | 0.941 (0.869, 1.014) |
Own or rent home | 1.164 (1.059, 1.270) | 1.179 (1.087, 1.270) |
Mold on walls of basement | 1.547 (1.296, 1.797) | 1.551 (1.302, 1.801) |
Moldy smells | 2.017 (1.539, 2.495) | 2.037 (1.556, 2.518) |
Basement needs repair | 1.783 (1.380, 2.187) | 1.777 (1.376, 2.179) |
Roof leaks | 6.753 (5.250, 8.256) | 6.836 (5.323, 8.349) |
Window leaks | 0.965 (0.710, 1.221) | |
Chimney leaks | 0.687 (0.430, 0.945) | 0.684 (0.446, 0.922) |
Plumbing leaks | 0.809 (0.335, 1.283) | |
Foundation cracks | 1.225 (0.854, 1.597) | |
Sinks and bathtub drain properly | 1.339 (0.998, 1.680) | 1.380 (1.045, 1.716) |
Uncapped sewer outlets | 0.916 (0.758, 1.073) | |
Ever had sewer backups | 1.663 (1.384, 1.942) | 1.668 (1.390, 1.946) |
Gaps large enough for animals and insects | 1.282 (1.029, 1.535) | 1.300 (1.047, 1.553) |
Constant | 0.059 (0.024, 0.095) | 0.052 (0.032, 0.072) |
Observations | 3842 | 3842 |
Log Likelihood | −2088.269 | −2090.988 |
Akaike Inf. Crit. | 4218.538 | 4205.976 |
No | Yes | OR | p | |
---|---|---|---|---|
N = 1057 | N = 3072 | |||
Experienced flooding | 448 (47.5%) | 1542 (56.2%) | 1.42 [1.22;1.64] | <0.001 |
Child in the home with asthma: Yes | 497 (62.2%) | 2005 (88.2%) | 4.54 [3.75;5.50] | 0.000 |
Breathing problems: Yes | 389 (39.7%) | 2355 (80.8%) | 6.40 [5.47;7.50] | 0.000 |
Smoker in the home: Yes | 514 (49.9%) | 1774 (59.5%) | 1.47 [1.28;1.70] | <0.001 |
Year house was built: | ||||
Pre 1910 | 137 (18.3%) | 512 (22.9%) | Ref. | Ref. |
1910–1930 | 275 (36.7%) | 780 (34.9%) | 0.76 [0.60;0.96] | 0.020 |
1931–1940 | 93 (12.4%) | 251 (11.2%) | 0.72 [0.53;0.98] | 0.037 |
1941–1945 | 28 (3.74%) | 84 (3.76%) | 0.80 [0.51;1.30] | 0.358 |
1946–1957 | 170 (22.7%) | 444 (19.9%) | 0.70 [0.54;0.91] | 0.007 |
1958 or later | 46 (6.14%) | 165 (7.38%) | 0.96 [0.66;1.41] | 0.825 |
Roof in good condition | 186 (23.9%) | 490 (21.8%) | 0.88 [0.73;1.07] | 0.214 |
Mold on walls of basement | 637 (69.4%) | 2020 (76.3%) | 1.42 [1.20;1.68] | <0.001 |
Moldy smells: Yes | 610 (66.5%) | 1951 (73.5%) | 1.40 [1.19;1.64] | <0.001 |
Basement needs repair | 619 (70.3%) | 1937 (77.2%) | 1.43 [1.21;1.70] | <0.001 |
Roof leaks | 830 (85.6%) | 2402 (86.3%) | 1.06 [0.86;1.31] | 0.579 |
Window leaks | 896 (92.4%) | 2617 (94.0%) | 1.30 [0.97;1.71] | 0.079 |
Chimney leaks | 937 (96.6%) | 2727 (98.0%) | 1.69 [1.08;2.59] | 0.022 |
Plumbing leaks | 854 (88.0%) | 2521 (90.6%) | 1.30 [1.03;1.64] | 0.028 |
No leaks | 338 (34.8%) | 850 (30.5%) | 0.82 [0.70;0.96] | 0.013 |
Foundation cracks | 758 (83.8%) | 2221 (85.7%) | 1.16 [0.94;1.42] | 0.169 |
Sinks and bathtub drain properly | 297 (28.6%) | 772 (25.8%) | 0.87 [0.74;1.02] | 0.077 |
Uncapped sewer outlets | 624 (68.1%) | 1908 (72.0%) | 1.20 [1.02;1.41] | 0.028 |
Ever had sewer backups | 581 (62.8%) | 1796 (66.9%) | 1.20 [1.02;1.40] | 0.025 |
Gaps large enough for animals and insects | 672 (71.6%) | 2089 (77.4%) | 1.36 [1.15;1.60] | <0.001 |
Census tract poverty (%) | 42.7 (11.4) | 42.9 (11.7) | 1.00 [1.00;1.01] | 0.639 |
Census tract under 18 poverty (%) | 59.1 (17.8) | 59.2 (17.8) | 1.00 [1.00;1.00] | 0.888 |
Percent African-American (%) | 85.7 (24.3) | 85.5 (24.5) | 1.00 [1.00;1.00] | 0.838 |
Distance to nearest waterway (m) | 4.93 (3.09) | 4.85 (3.01) | 0.99 [0.97;1.01] | 0.479 |
Elevation (m) | 189 (7.22) | 189 (7.18) | 1.00 [0.99;1.01] | 0.488 |
Homes owner occupied (%) | 51.3 (13.3) | 50.8 (14.1) | 1.00 [0.99;1.00] | 0.296 |
Homes built before 1939 (%) | 39.1 (24.1) | 39.0 (24.2) | 1.00 [1.00;1.00] | 0.958 |
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Larson, P.S.; Gronlund, C.; Thompson, L.; Sampson, N.; Washington, R.; Steis Thorsby, J.; Lyon, N.; Miller, C. Recurrent Home Flooding in Detroit, MI 2012–2020: Results of a Household Survey. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2021, 18, 7659. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18147659
Larson PS, Gronlund C, Thompson L, Sampson N, Washington R, Steis Thorsby J, Lyon N, Miller C. Recurrent Home Flooding in Detroit, MI 2012–2020: Results of a Household Survey. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2021; 18(14):7659. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18147659
Chicago/Turabian StyleLarson, Peter S., Carina Gronlund, Lyke Thompson, Natalie Sampson, Ramona Washington, Jamie Steis Thorsby, Natalie Lyon, and Carol Miller. 2021. "Recurrent Home Flooding in Detroit, MI 2012–2020: Results of a Household Survey" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 18, no. 14: 7659. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18147659