Health Impacts of Ambient Biomass Smoke in Tasmania, Australia
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. PM2.5 Exposure and Identification of WHS and LFS Days
- 1)
- The PM2.5 threshold used to identify LFS summer days (90th vs 99th percentile);
- 2)
- The months considered as start and end of winter; and
- 3)
- The consideration of sources allocated during the transition months (March, April, September, October) through the random forest method.
2.2. Population and Health Data
2.3. Health Impacts
2.4. Health Costs and Assessment
3. Results
3.1. PM2.5 and HDD
3.2. Health Impacts
3.3. Health Costs
3.4. Sensitivity Analysis
4. Discussion
4.1. Results in Relation to Other Studies
4.2. Strengths and Limitations
4.3. Policy Implications
4.4. Unanswered Questions and Future Research
5. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Effect | Cause | Age Group | Type of Smoke | Exposure | Beta | Standard Error | Increase per 10 (μg/m3) | Reference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Premature Mortality | All-cause | 30+ | WHS | Annual PM2.5 | 0.006015 | 0.001034 | 6.2% | [5] |
All | LFS | 24-h PM2.5 | 0.001222 | 0.000393 | 1.2% | |||
Hospital Admissions | CVD | All | WHS/LFS | 24-h PM2.5 | 0.000906 | 0.000377 | 0.9% | [5] |
RSP | All | WHS/LFS | 24-h PM2.5 | 0.001882 | 0.001051 | 1.9% | ||
ED visits | Asthma | 0–17 | WHS | 24-h PM2.5 | 0.003537 | 0.000862 | 3.6% | [42] |
18–64 | WHS | 24-h PM2.5 | 0.001686 | 0.000527 | 1.7% | |||
0–17 | LFS | 24-h PM2.5 | 0.003811 | 0.001865 | 3.9% | [11] | ||
18–64 | LFS | 24-h PM2.5 | 0.007071 | 0.001586 | 7.3% | |||
64+ | LFS | 24-h PM2.5 | 0.013994 | 0.002356 | 15% |
Day Type | Average Days per Year (number) | Average Days per Year (%) | Mean (μg/m3) | SD (μg/m3) | Max (μg/m3) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Unpolluted | 95 | 26% | 1.4 | 0.4 | 3 |
LFS | 111.8 | 30.6% | 4.2 | 6.3 | 313 |
WHS | 158.3 | 43.4% | 7.7 | 5.4 | 168 |
Source Type | Health Outcome | Estimated # of Cases | Estimated # of Cases per Year |
---|---|---|---|
LFS | All-cause Mortality | 36 (95% CI: 13–58) | 4 (95% CI: 1–6) |
Asthma ED Visits | 76 (95% CI: 39–121) | 8 (95% CI: 4–12) | |
CVD Hospital Admissions | 70 (95% CI: 13–128) | 7 (95% CI: 1–13) | |
RSP Hospital Admissions | 112 (95% CI: 0–240) | 11 (95% CI: 0–24) | |
WHS | All-cause Mortality | 653 (95% CI: 420–874) | 65 (95% CI: 42–87) |
Asthma ED Visits | 72 (95% CI: 36–108) | 7 (95% CI: 4–11) | |
CVD Hospital Admissions | 259 (95% CI: 49–474) | 26 (95% CI: 5–47) | |
RSP Hospital Admissions | 416 (95% CI: 0–882) | 42 (95% CI: 0–88) | |
Total | All-cause Mortality | 688 (95% CI: 433–932) | 69 (95% CI: 43–93) |
Asthma ED Visits | 148 (95% CI: 74–229) | 15 (95% CI: 7–23) | |
CVD Hospital Admissions | 329 (95% CI: 62–602) | 33 (95% CI: 6–60) | |
RSP Hospital Admissions | 528 (95% CI: 0–1123) | 53 (95% CI: 0–112) |
Health Outcome | 2016 | 2019 | Average for All Other Years |
---|---|---|---|
All-cause Mortality | 8 (95% CI: 3–13) | 8 (95% CI: 3–13) | 3 (95% CI: 1–4) |
Asthma ED Visits | 18 (95% CI: 9–31) | 18 (95% CI: 9–30) | 5 (95% CI: 3–8) |
CVD Hospital Admissions | 15 (95% CI: 3–28) | 15 (95% CI: 3–28) | 5 (95% CI: 1–9) |
RSP Hospital Admissions | 24 (95% CI: 0–52) | 24 (95% CI: 0–52) | 8 (95% CI: 0–17) |
Source Type | Health Outcome | Total Cost (AUD$ *) | Yearly Cost (AUD$/Year *) |
---|---|---|---|
LFS | All-cause Mortality (**) | 159 (95% CI: 58–262) million | 16 (95% CI: 6–26) million |
Asthma ED Visits | 55,949 (95% CI: 28,370–88,766) | 5595 (95% CI: 2837–8877) | |
CVD Hospital Admissions | 521,552 (95% CI: 97,075–957,899) | 52,155 (95% CI: 9708–95,790) | |
RSP Hospital Admissions | 845,972 (95% CI: 0–1,817,405) | 84,597 (95% CI: 0–181,741) | |
WHS | All-cause Mortality (**) | 2929 (95% CI: 1885–3920) million | 293 (95% CI: 189–392) million |
Asthma ED Visits | 52,508 (95% CI: 26,071–79,259) | 5251 (95% CI: 2607–7926) | |
CVD Hospital Admissions | 1,937,594 (95% CI: 362,145–3,542,801) | 193,759 (95% CI: 36,215–354,280) | |
RSP Hospital Admissions | 3,149,178 (95% CI: 0–6,674,047) | 314,918 (95% CI: 0–667,405) | |
Total | All-cause Mortality (**) | 3088 (95% CI: 1943–4181) million | 309 (95% CI: 194–418) million |
Asthma ED Visits | 108,457 (95% CI: 54,441–168,025) | 10,846 (95% CI: 5444–16,803) | |
CVD Hospital Admissions | 2,459,146 (95% CI: 459,220–4,500,700) | 245,915 (95% CI: 45,922–450,070) | |
RSP Hospital Admissions | 3,995,150 (95% CI: 0–8,491,452) | 399,515 (95% CI: 0–849,145) |
SA4 | Population | LFS | WHS | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Persons | % | AUD$ | % | AUD$ | % | |
Hobart | 229,088 | 44% | 63,119,001 | 39% | 1,161,808,071 | 40% |
Launceston and North–East | 143,752 | 28% | 48,045,137 | 30% | 1,093,171,538 | 37% |
West and North–West | 111,259 | 21% | 36,536,828 | 23% | 473,598,790 | 16% |
South–East | 38,053 | 7% | 13,016,748 | 8% | 205,218,190 | 7% |
Total | 522,152 | 100% | 160,717,714 | 100% | 2,933,796,590 | 100% |
Source | Indicator | All-Cause Mortality | Asthma ED Visits | CVD Hospital Admissions | RSP Hospital Admissions | TOTAL |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WHS | Total Cost (AUD$) | 2,928,657,309 | 52,508 | 1,937,594 | 3,149,178 | 2,933,796,590 |
Cost per day (AUD$/WHS-day) | 1,566,127 | 28 | 1036 | 1684 | 1,568,875 | |
Cost per year (AUD$/year) | 292,865,731 | 5251 | 193,759 | 314,918 | 293,379,659 | |
Cost per woodstove-year (AUD$/woodstove-year) | 4225 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 4232 | |
LFS | Total Cost (AUD$) | 159,294,240 | 55,949 | 521,552 | 845,972 | 160,717,714 |
Cost per day (AUD$/LFS-day) | 75,281 | 26 | 246 | 400 | 75,954 | |
Cost per year (AUD$/year) | 15,929,424 | 5595 | 52,155 | 84,597 | 16,071,771 |
Months Included | Source | Indicator | Main Scenario | Range |
---|---|---|---|---|
All months | WHS | Total Cost (AUD$) | 2934 million | 2458–3189 million |
Cost per day (AUD$/WHS-day) | 1.6 million | 1.4–1.7 million | ||
Cost per year (AUD$/year) | 293.4 million | 245.8–318.9 million | ||
Cost per woodstove-year (AUD$/woodstove-year) | 4232 | 3545–4601 | ||
LFS | Total Cost (AUD$) | 160.7 million | 138.2–270.3 million | |
Cost per day (AUD$/LFS-day) | 76 thousand | 64–109 thousand | ||
Cost per year (AUD$/year) | 16.1 million | 13.8–27 million | ||
Excluding months with predicted biomass smoke source | WHS | Total Cost (AUD$) | 2438 million | 1294–2615 million |
Cost per day (AUD$/WHS-day) | 1.98 million | 1.9–2.4 million | ||
Cost per year (AUD$/year) | 243.8 million | 129.4–261.5 million | ||
Cost per woodstove-year (AUD$/woodstove-year) | 3518 | 1867–3773 | ||
LFS | Total Cost (AUD$) | 97.3 million | 86–117.3 million | |
Cost per day (AUD$/LFS-day) | 81 thousand | 71.5–97.6 thousand | ||
Cost per year (AUD$/year) | 9.7 million | 8.6–11.7 million |
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Borchers-Arriagada, N.; Palmer, A.J.; Bowman, D.M.J.S.; Williamson, G.J.; Johnston, F.H. Health Impacts of Ambient Biomass Smoke in Tasmania, Australia. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 3264. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17093264
Borchers-Arriagada N, Palmer AJ, Bowman DMJS, Williamson GJ, Johnston FH. Health Impacts of Ambient Biomass Smoke in Tasmania, Australia. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2020; 17(9):3264. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17093264
Chicago/Turabian StyleBorchers-Arriagada, Nicolas, Andrew J. Palmer, David M.J.S. Bowman, Grant J. Williamson, and Fay H. Johnston. 2020. "Health Impacts of Ambient Biomass Smoke in Tasmania, Australia" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, no. 9: 3264. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17093264