Past and Future Alcohol-Attributable Mortality in Europe
1
Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, KNAW/University of Groningen, Lange Houtstraat 19, 2511 CV The Hague, The Netherlands
2
Population Research Centre, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, P.O. Box 800, 9700 AV Groningen, The Netherlands
3
Centre d’Estudis Demogràfics, Centres de Recerca de Catalunya (CERCA), Carrer de Ca n’Altayó, Buildings E2, Autonomous University of Barcelona, 08193 Bellaterra, Spain
4
Department of Non-Communicable Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel St, London WC1E 7HT, UK
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17(23), 9024; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17239024
Received: 15 October 2020 / Revised: 10 November 2020 / Accepted: 29 November 2020 / Published: 3 December 2020
Although alcohol consumption is an important public health issue in Europe, estimates of future alcohol-attributable mortality for European countries are rare, and only apply to the short-term future. We project (age-specific) alcohol-attributable mortality up to 2060 in 26 European countries, after a careful assessment of past trends. For this purpose we used population-level country-, sex-, age- (20–84) and year-specific (1990–2016) alcohol-attributable mortality fractions (AAMF) from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, which we adjusted at older ages. To these data we apply an advanced age-period-cohort projection methodology, that avoids unrealistic future differences and crossovers between sexes and countries. We project that in the future, AAMF levels will decline in all countries, and will converge across countries and sexes. For 2060, projected AAMF are, on average, 5.1% among men and 1.4% among women, whereas in 2016 these levels were 10.1% and 3.3%, respectively. For men, AAMF is projected to be higher in Eastern and South-western Europe than in North-western Europe. All in all, the share of mortality due to alcohol is projected to eventually decline in all 26 European countries. Achieving these projected declines will, however, require strong ongoing public health action, particularly for selected Eastern and North-western European countries.
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Keywords:
alcohol; Europe; future; mortality; alcohol-attributable mortality; time trends
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MDPI and ACS Style
Janssen, F.; El Gewily, S.; Bardoutsos, A.; Trias-Llimós, S. Past and Future Alcohol-Attributable Mortality in Europe. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 9024. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17239024
AMA Style
Janssen F, El Gewily S, Bardoutsos A, Trias-Llimós S. Past and Future Alcohol-Attributable Mortality in Europe. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2020; 17(23):9024. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17239024
Chicago/Turabian StyleJanssen, Fanny; El Gewily, Shady; Bardoutsos, Anastasios; Trias-Llimós, Sergi. 2020. "Past and Future Alcohol-Attributable Mortality in Europe" Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 17, no. 23: 9024. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17239024
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