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Open AccessArticle

Assessment of the Risk of Oral Cancer Incidence in A High-Risk Population and Establishment of A Predictive Model for Oral Cancer Incidence Using A Population-Based Cohort in Taiwan

1
Department of Public Health, China Medical University, Taichung 40402, Taiwan
2
Department of Healthcare Management, Yuanpei University of Medical Technology, Hsinchu 30015, Taiwan
3
Department of Healthcare Administration, Asia University, Taichung 41354, Taiwan
4
Department of Medical Research, China Medical University Hospital, China Medical University, Taichung 40402, Taiwan
5
Department of Social Work, National Quemoy University, Quemoy 892, Taiwan
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Department of Otolaryngology, China Medical University Hospital, Taichung 40447, Taiwan
7
Department of ENT, Taichung Veterans General Hospital, Taichung 40705, Taiwan
8
Department of Health Services Administration, China Medical University, Taichung 40402, Taiwan
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Authors contributed equally to this work.
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17(2), 665; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17020665
Received: 10 December 2019 / Revised: 18 January 2020 / Accepted: 19 January 2020 / Published: 20 January 2020
We aimed to assess the risk of oral cancer incidence in a high-risk population, establish a predictive model for oral cancer among these high-risk individuals, and assess the predictive ability of the constructed model. Individuals aged ≥30 years who had a habit of smoking or betel nut chewing and had undergone oral cancer screening in 2010 or 2011 were selected as study subjects. The incidence of oral cancer among the subjects at the end of 2014 was determined. The annual oral cancer incidence among individuals with a positive screening result was 624 per 100,000 persons, which was 6.5 times that of the annual oral cancer incidence among all individuals screened. Male sex, aged 45–64 years, divorce, low educational level, presence of diabetes, presence of other cancers, high comorbidity severity, a habit of smoking or betel nut chewing, and low monthly salary were high-risk factors for oral cancer incidence (p < 0.05). The area under the curve of the predictive model for oral cancer incidence was 0.73, which indicated a good predictive ability. Therefore, the oral cancer screening policy for the high-risk population with a habit of smoking and/or betel nut chewing is beneficial for the early diagnosis of oral cancer. View Full-Text
Keywords: oral cancer; smoking; betel nut chewing; screening; prediction oral cancer; smoking; betel nut chewing; screening; prediction
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Hung, L.-C.; Kung, P.-T.; Lung, C.-H.; Tsai, M.-H.; Liu, S.-A.; Chiu, L.-T.; Huang, K.-H.; Tsai, W.-C. Assessment of the Risk of Oral Cancer Incidence in A High-Risk Population and Establishment of A Predictive Model for Oral Cancer Incidence Using A Population-Based Cohort in Taiwan. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 665.

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