Predictions of Mortality from Pleural Mesothelioma in Italy After the Ban of Asbestos Use
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Material and Methods
2.1. Data Source
2.2. Statistical Analysis
3. Results
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
Ethics approval
References
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Age Group | Period | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1970–1974 | 1975–1979 | 1980–1984 | 1985–1989 | 1990–1994 | 1995–1999 | 2000–2004 | 2005–2009 | 2010–2014 | Total | |
Male | ||||||||||
25–29 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | . | 2 | 26 |
0.07 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.02 | . | 0.02 | 0.03 | |
30–34 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | . | 42 |
0.06 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.01 | . | 0.05 | |
35–39 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 19 | 16 | 12 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 107 |
0.14 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.20 | 0.17 | 0.12 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.12 | |
40–44 | 21 | 23 | 32 | 34 | 33 | 31 | 24 | 18 | 18 | 234 |
0.23 | 0.26 | 0.35 | 0.38 | 0.34 | 0.33 | 0.23 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.26 | |
45–49 | 46 | 49 | 58 | 68 | 77 | 58 | 77 | 50 | 38 | 521 |
0.52 | 0.55 | 0.66 | 0.75 | 0.88 | 0.61 | 0.83 | 0.48 | 0.32 | 0.61 | |
50–54 | 53 | 65 | 89 | 108 | 148 | 132 | 153 | 99 | 94 | 941 |
0.82 | 0.76 | 1.03 | 1.26 | 1.66 | 1.54 | 1.63 | 1.07 | 0.92 | 1.20 | |
55–59 | 106 | 96 | 148 | 166 | 187 | 260 | 256 | 256 | 185 | 1660 |
1.55 | 1.56 | 1.83 | 2.01 | 2.26 | 3.02 | 3.08 | 2.79 | 2.03 | 2.28 | |
60–64 | 155 | 136 | 159 | 241 | 282 | 303 | 441 | 466 | 423 | 2606 |
2.27 | 2.15 | 2.80 | 3.23 | 3.63 | 3.87 | 5.39 | 5.81 | 4.75 | 3.89 | |
65–69 | 159 | 190 | 225 | 248 | 324 | 380 | 541 | 691 | 715 | 3473 |
3.04 | 3.22 | 4.06 | 4.92 | 4.81 | 5.39 | 7.50 | 8.97 | 9.41 | 5.99 | |
70–74 | 133 | 167 | 255 | 250 | 306 | 445 | 556 | 734 | 895 | 3741 |
3.74 | 4.06 | 5.42 | 5.47 | 7.14 | 7.73 | 9.07 | 11.34 | 12.76 | 8.03 | |
75–79 | 100 | 115 | 188 | 271 | 316 | 348 | 554 | 655 | 915 | 3462 |
4.72 | 4.69 | 6.64 | 7.85 | 9.03 | 10.37 | 12.11 | 12.92 | 16.71 | 10.54 | |
80–84 | 43 | 59 | 93 | 133 | 243 | 273 | 358 | 471 | 670 | 2343 |
3.59 | 4.83 | 6.70 | 7.81 | 10.81 | 11.66 | 15.50 | 14.46 | 17.86 | 12.07 | |
85–89 | 15 | 29 | 41 | 57 | 77 | 151 | 186 | 218 | 315 | 1089 |
3.01 | 5.60 | 7.84 | 8.89 | 9.13 | 12.85 | 14.74 | 15.26 | 16.65 | 12.54 | |
Total | 856 | 954 | 1314 | 1605 | 2016 | 2399 | 3163 | 3663 | 4275 | 20245 |
1.09 | 1.17 | 1.57 | 1.84 | 2.18 | 2.47 | 3.14 | 3.51 | 3.99 | ||
Female | ||||||||||
25–29 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | . | 2 | 1 | 21 |
0.03 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.02 | . | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | |
30–34 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 4 | . | . | 47 |
0.05 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.04 | . | . | 0.05 | |
35–39 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 67 |
0.10 | 0.07 | 0.13 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.07 | |
40–44 | 21 | 13 | 22 | 21 | 16 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 126 |
0.22 | 0.14 | 0.23 | 0.23 | 0.16 | 0.15 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.14 | |
45–49 | 26 | 27 | 24 | 27 | 28 | 34 | 29 | 30 | 17 | 242 |
0.28 | 0.29 | 0.26 | 0.29 | 0.31 | 0.35 | 0.30 | 0.29 | 0.14 | 0.28 | |
50–54 | 26 | 32 | 30 | 46 | 46 | 43 | 47 | 50 | 32 | 352 |
0.36 | 0.35 | 0.33 | 0.51 | 0.50 | 0.48 | 0.49 | 0.52 | 0.30 | 0.43 | |
55–59 | 51 | 41 | 51 | 48 | 68 | 64 | 99 | 68 | 66 | 556 |
0.68 | 0.58 | 0.57 | 0.54 | 0.77 | 0.70 | 1.13 | 0.71 | 0.68 | 0.71 | |
60–64 | 61 | 50 | 68 | 81 | 87 | 105 | 134 | 135 | 113 | 834 |
0.79 | 0.69 | 1.00 | 0.93 | 1.00 | 1.21 | 1.50 | 1.56 | 1.18 | 1.11 | |
65–69 | 80 | 76 | 79 | 105 | 115 | 126 | 189 | 197 | 193 | 1160 |
1.26 | 1.07 | 1.15 | 1.65 | 1.39 | 1.51 | 2.27 | 2.27 | 2.29 | 1.69 | |
70–74 | 87 | 102 | 120 | 120 | 142 | 168 | 195 | 241 | 286 | 1461 |
1.76 | 1.84 | 1.90 | 1.95 | 2.43 | 2.19 | 2.49 | 3.04 | 3.45 | 2.41 | |
75–79 | 67 | 78 | 124 | 152 | 165 | 163 | 255 | 273 | 358 | 1635 |
1.96 | 2.00 | 2.79 | 2.89 | 3.12 | 3.17 | 3.73 | 3.84 | 4.94 | 3.36 | |
80–84 | 44 | 53 | 80 | 120 | 160 | 155 | 195 | 263 | 315 | 1385 |
2.27 | 2.33 | 3.03 | 3.78 | 4.02 | 3.75 | 4.67 | 4.63 | 5.29 | 4.08 | |
85–89 | 20 | 26 | 53 | 55 | 82 | 114 | 118 | 128 | 180 | 776 |
2.30 | 2.56 | 4.49 | 3.77 | 4.33 | 4.50 | 4.37 | 4.43 | 4.53 | 4.19 | |
Total | 500 | 517 | 676 | 794 | 926 | 1002 | 1286 | 1392 | 1569 | 8662 |
0.58 | 0.57 | 0.72 | 0.82 | 0.91 | 0.94 | 1.16 | 1.22 | 1.34 |
Model | Men | Women | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AIC | LR Statistic | p Value | DF | AIC | LR Statistic | p Value | DF | |
Age–period–cohort | 834.132 | NA | NA | 77 | 783.076 | NA | NA | 77 |
Period–cohort | 1613.485 | 801.353 | <0.001 | 88 | 925.738 | 164.661 | <0.001 | 88 |
Age–cohort | 841.691 | 21.559 | <0.003 | 84 | 783.557 | 14.481 | 0.043 | 84 |
Age–period | 1418.905 | 622.773 | <0.001 | 96 | 967.225 | 222.148 | <0.001 | 96 |
Cohort | 21,078.599 | 20,282.467 | <0.001 | 96 | 7049.860 | 6211.774 | <0.001 | 96 |
Period | 33,583.124 | 32,810.992 | <0.001 | 108 | 12,790.662 | 11,997.016 | <0.001 | 108 |
Age | 3318.674 | 2538.542 | <0.001 | 104 | 1207.498 | 505.611 | <0.001 | 104 |
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Oddone, E.; Bollon, J.; Nava, C.R.; Bugani, M.; Consonni, D.; Marinaccio, A.; Magnani, C.; Barone-Adesi, F. Predictions of Mortality from Pleural Mesothelioma in Italy After the Ban of Asbestos Use. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 607. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17020607
Oddone E, Bollon J, Nava CR, Bugani M, Consonni D, Marinaccio A, Magnani C, Barone-Adesi F. Predictions of Mortality from Pleural Mesothelioma in Italy After the Ban of Asbestos Use. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2020; 17(2):607. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17020607
Chicago/Turabian StyleOddone, Enrico, Jordy Bollon, Consuelo Rubina Nava, Marcella Bugani, Dario Consonni, Alessandro Marinaccio, Corrado Magnani, and Francesco Barone-Adesi. 2020. "Predictions of Mortality from Pleural Mesothelioma in Italy After the Ban of Asbestos Use" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, no. 2: 607. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17020607