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Open AccessArticle

Predictions of Mortality from Pleural Mesothelioma in Italy After the Ban of Asbestos Use

Department of Public Health, Experimental and Forensic Medicine, University of Pavia, 27100 Pavia, Italy
Occupational Medicine Unit (UOOML), ICS Maugeri IRCCS, 27100 Pavia, Italy
Department of Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of Eastern Piedmont, 28100 Novara, Italy
Department of Economics and Political Science, University of Aosta Valley, 11100 Aosta, Italy
Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Epidemiology and Hygiene Department, Italian Workers’ Compensation Authority (INAIL), 00187 Rome, Italy
Epidemiology Unit, Fondazione IRCCS Ca’ Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, 20122 Milan, Italy
Unit of Medical Statistics and Cancer Epidemiology, Department of Translational Medicine, University of Eastern Piedmont, Novara, and CPO-Piedmont, 28100 Novara, Italy
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17(2), 607;
Received: 19 December 2019 / Revised: 11 January 2020 / Accepted: 14 January 2020 / Published: 17 January 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Environmental Exposure and Cancer Risk in Healthy Populations)
Even if the epidemic of malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) is still far from being over worldwide, the health effects of regulations banning asbestos can be evaluated in the countries that implemented them early. Estimates of MPM future burden can be useful to inform and support the implementation of anti-asbestos health policies all around the world. With this aim we described the trends of MPM deaths in Italy (1970–2014) and predicted the future number of cases in both sexes (2015–2039), with consideration of the national asbestos ban that was issued in 1992. The Italian National Statistical Institute (ISTAT) provided MPM mortality figures. Cases ranging from 25 to 89 years of age were included in the analysis. For each five-year period from 1970 to 2014, mortality rates were calculated and age–period–cohort Poisson models were used to predict future burden of MPM cases until 2039. During the period 1970–2014 a total number of 28,907 MPM deaths were observed. MPM deaths increased constantly over the study period, ranging from 1356 cases in 1970–1974 to 5844 cases in 2010–2014. The peak of MPM cases is expected to be reached in the period 2020–2024 (about 7000 cases). The decrease will be slow: about 26,000 MPM cases are expected to occur in Italy during the next 20 years (2020–2039). The MPM epidemic in Italy is far from being concluded despite the national ban implemented in 1992, and the peak is expected in 2020–2024, in both sexes. Our results are consistent with international literature. View Full-Text
Keywords: pleural mesothelioma; epidemic; age–period–cohort; asbestos ban; trends pleural mesothelioma; epidemic; age–period–cohort; asbestos ban; trends
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Oddone, E.; Bollon, J.; Nava, C.R.; Bugani, M.; Consonni, D.; Marinaccio, A.; Magnani, C.; Barone-Adesi, F. Predictions of Mortality from Pleural Mesothelioma in Italy After the Ban of Asbestos Use. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 607.

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