A Critical Analysis of the Drivers of Human Migration Patterns in the Presence of Climate Change: A New Conceptual Model
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. A Critical Review of Climate Migration Literature
3. A New Conceptual Framework
3.1. Migration Typology
3.2. Drivers of Migration
3.2.1. Climate Change
Physical Effects
Biological/Ecological and Anthropogenic Effects
3.2.2. Other Migration Drivers
Social Drivers
Economic Drivers
Political Drivers
Demographic Drivers
Environmental Drivers
4. Applying the Model to the Case Study of Malawi
5. Complexities within the Model
6. Modelling Opportunities and Challenges
7. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Type of Migration | Societal Level | Temporal Level | Spatial Level | Agency Level | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Forced Displacement | Macro | Short term | Short distance | Low |
2 | Migration as an adaptive response | Micro | Varied | Varied | Varied |
3 | Planned resettlement | Macro | Permanent | Short distance | Low |
4 | Trapped | Micro | Varied | n/a | Low |
5 | Immobile | Micro | Varied | n/a | Medium/High |
Determinant | Temporal Scale |
---|---|
Physical aspects | |
Changes in extreme or annual mean rainfall, resulting in a range of effects including droughts and floods | multilevel |
Increased extreme weather events | fast |
Land (including coastal) erosion | slow |
Sea level rise | slow |
Changes in average temperatures and temperature extremes | slow |
Biological/ecological aspects | |
Desertification | slow |
Deforestation | slow |
Soil degradation | multilevel |
Changes to freshwater ecosystems including fish and other aquatic populations | slow |
Changes to marine ecosystems including fish and other aquatic populations | slow |
Changes to terrestrial ecosystems including changes to flora and fauna and vector-borne disease spread | multilevel |
Anthropogenic aspects | |
Changes in crop yield and agricultural productivity | multilevel |
Changes in fishing catch | slow |
Changes in water availability and security | multilevel |
Determinants of Migration | Societal Scale | Temporal Scale |
---|---|---|
Social | ||
Family and societal relations and expectations | micro | slow |
Migration and social networks (including remittance networks) | micro | slow |
Changes in marital status | micro | slow |
Education level | micro | slow or static |
Ethnicity | multilevel | static |
Economic | ||
Average household income | micro | multilevel |
Key economic activity of household | micro | multilevel |
Cost of living (e.g., consumer prices relative to income) | multilevel | multilevel |
Employment rates and opportunities | multilevel | multilevel |
Land availability and rights | macro | slow |
Political | ||
Level of institutionalisation and infrastructure (governmental and other) | multilevel | slow |
Conflict/security | multilevel | multilevel |
Governance: policy incentives and state support initiatives and effectiveness of implementation and decision making by government | macro | slow |
Specific migration policy and cultural sentiment towards migrants | macro | multilevel |
Demographic | ||
Gender | micro | static |
Marital status | micro | slow |
Age | micro | slow |
Ethnicity | multilevel | static |
Sex ratio | macro | static |
Population density | macro | slow |
Population growth rate | macro | slow |
Age ratio | macro | slow |
Population morbidity and mortality | macro | multilevel |
Environmental | ||
Soil quality | macro | slow |
Land use/quality and degradation | macro | slow |
Air quality | macro | Slow |
Food security | macro | multilevel |
Water security | macro | multilevel |
Discipline | Description |
---|---|
Human geography | Offers a range of frameworks and tools for studying human migration and its drivers. |
Anthropology | Through the study of human behaviour, anthropological methods offer a deeper insight into the decision-making process behind migration, as well as the impacts of migration upon individual and societal well-being. |
Ethnography | Ethnography offers a unique and rich insight into people’s opinions and decision making. |
Political sciences | Political sciences may be used to explore the effects of policy on immigration, as well as the geographic, economic and social drivers of migration policy and sentiment. |
Economics | Both macro and micro economics can be used to quantify migration as well as study the economic drivers and impacts of migration. For example, in the case study of Malawi, econometric modelling could be applied in the study of the impact of failed crops on household wealth and as such on migration. |
Mathematics | A range of mathematical models are used in the study of migration such as system dynamic models, agent-based models, gravity models, and diffusion models. |
Epidemiology | Environmental epidemiology can be used in the study of migration and its drivers. For example, the field of ecological public health supports the exploration of the relationships between the biological and material realms [92]. |
Disaster risk reduction sciences | Disaster risk reduction relates mainly to sudden-onset events and short-term, forced displacement and as such provides cross-over to the field of migration science. |
Environmental sciences/agricultural sciences/hydrology/climate modelling | These are examples of fields which are relevant to the drivers of migration. For example, in the case study of Malawi, agricultural sciences may help model the impacts of climate change on crop yield. |
Computer sciences | Computer science is used in migration studies to model and simulate migration and its quantifiable drivers and impact. |
Sociologists | Sociology can be used to study migration and its impacts at the societal level, with special interest in demographic makeup and the social structure of migrant (and non-migrant) communities. |
Demography | The study of population dynamics and structure places migration as a core component. |
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Parrish, R.; Colbourn, T.; Lauriola, P.; Leonardi, G.; Hajat, S.; Zeka, A. A Critical Analysis of the Drivers of Human Migration Patterns in the Presence of Climate Change: A New Conceptual Model. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 6036. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17176036
Parrish R, Colbourn T, Lauriola P, Leonardi G, Hajat S, Zeka A. A Critical Analysis of the Drivers of Human Migration Patterns in the Presence of Climate Change: A New Conceptual Model. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2020; 17(17):6036. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17176036
Chicago/Turabian StyleParrish, Rebecca, Tim Colbourn, Paolo Lauriola, Giovanni Leonardi, Shakoor Hajat, and Ariana Zeka. 2020. "A Critical Analysis of the Drivers of Human Migration Patterns in the Presence of Climate Change: A New Conceptual Model" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, no. 17: 6036. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17176036