Estimating Disability-Adjusted Life Years due to Tuberculosis in Korea through to the Year 2040
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Design and Data Sources
2.2. Projection Methods for Disability-Adjusted Life Years
2.3. Ethics Statement
3. Results
3.1. Years of Life Lost, Years Living with Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years due to Tuberculosis
3.2. Projected New Cases and Deaths due to Tuberculosis
3.3. Projected Years of Life Lost, Years Living with Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years due to Tuberculosis
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
Classifications 1 | Drugs (Abbreviations) |
---|---|
Single-agent products | |
Group 1: First-line oral agents | • Isoniazid (H) |
• Rifampicin (R) | |
• Ethambutol (E) | |
• Pyrazinamide (Z) | |
• Rifabutin (Rfb) | |
Group 2: Injectable agents | • Kanamycin (Km) |
• Amikacin (Amk) | |
• Capreomycin (Cm) | |
• Streptomycin (S) | |
Group 3: Fluoroquinolones | • Ciprofloxacin (Cfx) |
• Levofloxacin (Lfx) | |
• Moxifloxacin (Mfx) | |
• Ofloxacin (Ofx) | |
Group 4: Oral bacteriostatic second-line agents | • Prothionamide (Pto) |
• Cycloserine (Cs) | |
• P-aminosalicyclic acid (PAS) | |
Group 5: Agents with an unclear role in the treatment of drug resistant-TB | • Linezolid (Lzd) |
• Clarithromycin (Clr) | |
• Bedaquiline fumarate (Bdq) | |
• Delamanid (Dlm) | |
• Meropenem (Mpm) | |
Multiple-agent products | |
Fixed-dose combination | • Isoniazid + Rifampicin (HR) |
• Isoniazid + Rifampicin + Ethambutol (HRE) | |
• Isoniazid + Rifampicin + Ethambutol + Pyrazinamide (HRZE) | |
• Isoniazid + Rifampicin + Pyrazinamide (HRZ) |
Appendix B
Age Group | Male | Female | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
0–9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
10–19 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
20–29 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
30–39 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
40–49 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
50–59 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
60–69 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
70–79 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
≥80 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
Age Group | Male | Female | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
0–9 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 6.1 | 6.4 |
10–19 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.2 | 16.2 | 16.1 | 16.2 | 16.4 | 16.4 |
20–29 | 25.2 | 25.1 | 25.1 | 25.2 | 25.3 | 25.2 | 25.2 | 25.2 |
30–39 | 35.1 | 35.2 | 35.2 | 35.4 | 34.9 | 34.9 | 35.1 | 35.2 |
40–49 | 45.2 | 45.3 | 45.4 | 45.5 | 44.9 | 45.0 | 45.1 | 45.2 |
50–59 | 55.0 | 55.1 | 55.2 | 55.3 | 55.0 | 55.1 | 55.2 | 55.2 |
60–69 | 64.9 | 64.9 | 64.9 | 64.8 | 65.1 | 65.1 | 65.1 | 65.0 |
70–79 | 74.8 | 74.9 | 75.0 | 75.1 | 75.1 | 75.2 | 75.4 | 75.4 |
≥80 | 84.5 | 84.5 | 84.5 | 84.5 | 85.3 | 85.4 | 85.4 | 85.5 |
Appendix C
- : Time series at moment t (Box–Cox transformed),
- : i-th seasonal component.
- lt: Local level,
- bt: Trend with damping,
- dt: ARMA (p, q) process from residuals,
- et: Gaussian white noise.
- T: Amount of seasonality,
- mi: Length of the -th seasonal period,
- ki: Number of harmonics for the -th seasonal period,
- λ: Box–Cox transformation,
- α, β: Smoothing,
- ϕ: Trend damping,
- φi, θi: ARMA (p, q) coefficients,
- : Seasonal smoothing (two for each period).
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Age Group | Male | Female | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
0–9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
10–19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
20–29 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 1 |
30–39 | 15 | 14 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 2 |
40–49 | 42 | 39 | 33 | 29 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 2 |
50–59 | 71 | 68 | 54 | 45 | 12 | 15 | 10 | 6 |
60–69 | 78 | 80 | 67 | 51 | 26 | 14 | 14 | 12 |
70–79 | 183 | 138 | 132 | 109 | 66 | 62 | 56 | 38 |
≥80 | 322 | 296 | 303 | 212 | 153 | 143 | 150 | 125 |
Total | 43 | 40 | 35 | 29 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 11 |
Age Group | Male | Female | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
0–9 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 1 |
10–19 | 17 | 16 | 27 | 11 | 14 | 24 | 10 | 8 |
20–29 | 53 | 44 | 41 | 29 | 56 | 53 | 41 | 35 |
30–39 | 46 | 40 | 36 | 32 | 44 | 38 | 34 | 30 |
40–49 | 49 | 44 | 41 | 35 | 34 | 28 | 26 | 26 |
50–59 | 56 | 52 | 51 | 47 | 32 | 28 | 25 | 25 |
60–69 | 56 | 53 | 53 | 49 | 33 | 29 | 27 | 27 |
70–79 | 65 | 59 | 58 | 55 | 48 | 45 | 42 | 38 |
≥80 | 68 | 63 | 63 | 67 | 46 | 44 | 44 | 42 |
Total | 44 | 39 | 39 | 33 | 34 | 32 | 27 | 25 |
Age Group | Male | Female | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
0–9 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 1 |
10–19 | 18 | 16 | 27 | 11 | 16 | 24 | 10 | 8 |
20–29 | 57 | 47 | 44 | 34 | 58 | 58 | 46 | 36 |
30–39 | 61 | 54 | 47 | 39 | 53 | 46 | 38 | 32 |
40–49 | 91 | 83 | 74 | 64 | 41 | 35 | 34 | 28 |
50–59 | 127 | 120 | 105 | 92 | 44 | 42 | 35 | 31 |
60–69 | 134 | 134 | 121 | 100 | 59 | 42 | 41 | 38 |
70–79 | 248 | 197 | 190 | 164 | 114 | 107 | 98 | 76 |
≥80 | 390 | 359 | 366 | 279 | 199 | 187 | 194 | 166 |
Total | 86 | 79 | 75 | 63 | 51 | 48 | 42 | 36 |
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Jang, S.Y.; Kim, M.J.; Cheong, H.-K.; Oh, I.-H. Estimating Disability-Adjusted Life Years due to Tuberculosis in Korea through to the Year 2040. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 5960. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17165960
Jang SY, Kim MJ, Cheong H-K, Oh I-H. Estimating Disability-Adjusted Life Years due to Tuberculosis in Korea through to the Year 2040. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2020; 17(16):5960. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17165960
Chicago/Turabian StyleJang, Su Yeon, Moon Jung Kim, Hyeon-Kyoung Cheong, and In-Hwan Oh. 2020. "Estimating Disability-Adjusted Life Years due to Tuberculosis in Korea through to the Year 2040" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, no. 16: 5960. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17165960