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Open AccessArticle

Modeling and Forecasting the COVID-19 Temporal Spread in Greece: An Exploratory Approach Based on Complex Network Defined Splines

1
Laboratory of Complex Systems, Department of Physics, Faculty of Sciences, International Hellenic University, Kavala Campus, 65404 St. Loukas, Greece
2
Department of Regional and Economic Development, Agricultural University of Athens, Greece, Nea Poli, 33100 Amfissa, Greece
3
Department of Planning and Regional Development, University of Thessaly, Pedion Areos, 38334 Volos, Greece
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17(13), 4693; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17134693
Received: 3 May 2020 / Revised: 27 June 2020 / Accepted: 29 June 2020 / Published: 30 June 2020
Within the complex framework of anti-COVID-19 health management, where the criteria of diagnostic testing, the availability of public-health resources and services, and the applied anti-COVID-19 policies vary between countries, the reliability and accuracy in the modeling of temporal spread can prove to be effective in the worldwide fight against the disease. This paper applies an exploratory time-series analysis to the evolution of the disease in Greece, which currently suggests a success story of COVID-19 management. The proposed method builds on a recent conceptualization of detecting connective communities in a time-series and develops a novel spline regression model where the knot vector is determined by the community detection in the complex network. Overall, the study contributes to the COVID-19 research by proposing a free of disconnected past-data and reliable framework of forecasting, which can facilitate decision-making and management of the available health resources. View Full-Text
Keywords: COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic; outbreak; modeling; prediction; regression splines; modularity optimization algorithm COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic; outbreak; modeling; prediction; regression splines; modularity optimization algorithm
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Demertzis, K.; Tsiotas, D.; Magafas, L. Modeling and Forecasting the COVID-19 Temporal Spread in Greece: An Exploratory Approach Based on Complex Network Defined Splines. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 4693.

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