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Indirect Economic Impact Incurred by Haze Pollution: An Econometric and Input–Output Joint Model

1
School of Mathematics and Statistics, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
2
National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
3
School of Computing, Edinburgh Napier University, Edinburgh EH10 5DT, UK
4
Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of North Carolina at Pembroke, Pembroke, NC 28372, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2019, 16(13), 2328; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16132328
Received: 11 June 2019 / Revised: 28 June 2019 / Accepted: 29 June 2019 / Published: 1 July 2019
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Abstract

Econometrics and input–output models have been presented to construct a joint model (i.e., an EC + IO model) in the paper, which is characterized by incorporating the uncertainty of the real economy with the detailed departmental classification structure, as well as adding recovery period variables in the joint model to make the model dynamic. By designing and implementing a static model, it is estimated that the indirect economic loss for the transportation sector caused by representative haze pollution of Beijing in 2013 was 23.7 million yuan. The industrial-related indirect losses due to the direct economic losses incurred by haze pollution reached 102 million yuan. With the constructed dynamic model, the cumulative economic losses for the industrial sectors have been calculated for the recovery periods of different durations. The results show that: (1) the longer the period that an industrial department returns to normal output after haze pollution has impacted, the greater the cumulative economic loss will be; (2) when the recovery period is one year, the cumulative economic loss value computed by the dynamic EC + IO model is much smaller than the loss value obtained by the static EC + IO model; (3) the recovery curves of industrial sectors show that the recovery rate at the early stage is fast, while it is slow afterwards. Therefore, the governance work after the occurrence of haze pollution should be launched as soon as possible. This study provides a theoretical basis for evaluating the indirect economic losses of haze pollution and demonstrates the value of popularization and application. View Full-Text
Keywords: Econometric (EC) model; input–output (IO) model; static and dynamic EC + IO joint models; haze pollution; indirect economic loss Econometric (EC) model; input–output (IO) model; static and dynamic EC + IO joint models; haze pollution; indirect economic loss
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Chen, J.; Chen, K.; Wang, G.; Chen, R.; Liu, X.; Wei, G. Indirect Economic Impact Incurred by Haze Pollution: An Econometric and Input–Output Joint Model. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2019, 16, 2328.

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