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Open AccessArticle

Modeling the Heterogeneity of Dengue Transmission in a City

1
Department of Mathematics and Physics, North China Electric Power University; Baoding 071003, China
2
State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences; Beijing 100864, China
3
Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-Warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
4
WorldPop, Department of Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 IBJ, UK
5
Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China
6
Flowminder Foundation, Roslagsgatan 17, SE-11355 Stockholm, Sweden
7
State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
8
WHO Collaborating Center for Vector Surveillance and Management, Beijing 102206, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2018, 15(6), 1128; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15061128
Received: 5 February 2018 / Revised: 2 May 2018 / Accepted: 19 May 2018 / Published: 31 May 2018
(This article belongs to the Collection Methodological Innovations and Reflections)
Dengue fever is one of the most important vector-borne diseases in the world, and modeling its transmission dynamics allows for determining the key influence factors and helps to perform interventions. The heterogeneity of mosquito bites of humans during the spread of dengue virus is an important factor that should be considered when modeling the dynamics. However, traditional models generally assumed homogeneous mixing between humans and vectors, which is inconsistent with reality. In this study, we proposed a compartmental model with negative binomial distribution transmission terms to model this heterogeneity at the population level. By including the aquatic stage of mosquitoes and incorporating the impacts of the environment and climate factors, an extended model was used to simulate the 2014 dengue outbreak in Guangzhou, China, and to simulate the spread of dengue in different scenarios. The results showed that a high level of heterogeneity can result in a small peak size in an outbreak. As the level of heterogeneity decreases, the transmission dynamics approximate the dynamics predicted by the corresponding homogeneous mixing model. The simulation results from different scenarios showed that performing interventions early and decreasing the carrying capacity for mosquitoes are necessary for preventing and controlling dengue epidemics. This study contributes to a better understanding of the impact of heterogeneity during the spread of dengue virus. View Full-Text
Keywords: dengue fever; heterogeneity; transmission terms; negative binomial distribution dengue fever; heterogeneity; transmission terms; negative binomial distribution
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MDPI and ACS Style

Kong, L.; Wang, J.; Li, Z.; Lai, S.; Liu, Q.; Wu, H.; Yang, W. Modeling the Heterogeneity of Dengue Transmission in a City. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2018, 15, 1128.

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