Study on Water Suitability of Apple Plantations in the Loess Plateau under Climate Change
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Technical Framework
2.3. Calculation of the Water Demand of Apple Trees
2.4. Calculation of the Water Suitability of Apple Trees
2.5. Predication Method of Future Climatic Factor
2.6. Contribution Rate and Sensitivity Analysis Method
3. Results
3.1. Spatial-Temporal Evolution Characteristics of Water Demand of Apple Trees in the Past Period
3.2. The Spatial-Temporal Evolution of Water Suitability in the Past Period
3.3. The Water Suitability under Future Climate Change
4. Discussion
4.1. The Comparison between Our Findings and Those of the Previous Studies
4.2. The Changing Characteristics of the Contributing Factors for Water Suitability
4.3. Analysis of the Contribution Rate and Sensitivity of Various Meteorological Factors to ET0
4.4 The Sustainable Development Strategy of the Apple Plantations in the Loess Plateau
4.4.1. The Adoption of the “Water-Vegetation Harmony” Management Concept
4.4.2. The Integration of the Rainwater Harvesting and Agronomic Measures into a New Technical Mode for Vegetation Ecological Construction in Arid and Semi-Arid Areas
4.4.3. The Establishment of a Reasonable Rewards and Penalties Systems to Ensure the Sustainable Development of Apple Plantations in the Loess Plateau
5. Conclusions
- (1)
- In the past period (1990–2013), the order of the average water demand of apple trees in each sub-region was Shaanxi Province > Yuncheng Region > Gansu Province > Sanmenxia Region, and the water demand ranged from 500 to 950 mm. The temporal variability of water suitability from 1990 to 2013 was large, and the higher values of water suitability were concentrated in the late growth stage of the apple trees and the lower values were concentrated in the early growth stage of the apple trees.
- (2)
- In the future (2019–2050), the temporal evolution of apple tree water suitability is projected to be relatively stable, and the spatial distribution is projected to be relatively even. Generally, the water suitability in the northern and western areas is expected to be lower than that in the southern and eastern areas.
- (3)
- We found that the water suitability is mainly affected by effective precipitation and meteorological factors including wind speed (U2), solar radiation (Rn), average temperature (Tmean), and actual vapor pressure (ea). The contribution rates of the four factors to ET0 change are respectively 18%, 36%, 38%, and 8%.
- (4)
- The findings in this paper indicate that the water suitability of apple plantations showed a decreasing trend in the past period (1990–2013) but that the slope of downward trend of water suitability is expected to be greatly reduced in the future period. Therefore, we speculate that the water available for apple tree growth will be more sufficient under future climate change than that observed in the past period. However, with that said, it is important not to be over-optimistic. With this in mind, we also proposed several key measures to improve the sustainability of apple plantations in the Loess Plateau in the future.
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Growth Period | Henan | Shaanxi | Shanxi | Gansu |
---|---|---|---|---|
Germination | 03-08 | 03-11 | 03-18 | 04-07 |
Green Tip | 03-12 | 03-15 | 03-22 | 04-11 |
Half-Inch Green | 03-20 | 03-24 | 03-30 | 04-16 |
Pink | 04-01 | 04-06 | 04-14 | 04-24 |
Full Bloom | 04-13 | 04-17 | 04-19 | 04-27 |
Post-Bloom | 04-22 | 04-28 | 04-27 | 05-04 |
Fruit Present | 10-02 | 10-08 | 10-09 | 09-17 |
Beginning of leaf | 10-27 | 10-31 | 10-30 | 10-02 |
End of leaf | 11-04 | 11-10 | 11-09 | 10-09 |
First Defoliation | 11-10 | 11-15 | 11-10 | 10-12 |
Last Defoliation | 11-25 | 11-28 | 11-25 | 11-17 |
Province | First Growth Period | Vigorous Growth Period | Post Growth Period |
---|---|---|---|
Henan | First ten-day period of Mar.–Last ten-day period of Apr. | First ten days of May–Last ten days of Oct. | Second ten-day period of Oct–Last ten-day period of Nov. |
Shanxi | Second ten-day of-Mar–Last ten-day of Apr | First ten -days of May–Last ten days of Oct. | Second ten-day period of Oct–Last ten-day period of Nov. |
Shaanxi | Last ten-day period of Mar.–Last ten-day period of Apr. | First ten days of May–Last ten days of Oct. | Second ten-day period of Oct.–Last ten-day period of Nov. |
Gansu | First ten-day period of Mar.–First ten-day period of Apr. | Second ten-day period of May–Second ten-day period of Oct. | Last ten-day period of Oct.–Second ten-day period of Nov. |
Kc | 0.55 | 0.90 | 0.65 |
Model | Institution | Resolution | References |
---|---|---|---|
BCC-CSM1.1 | Beijing Climate Center, Meteorological Administration | 128 × 64 | Xin et al. (2013) [22] |
BNU-ESM | Beijing Normal University, China | 128 × 64 | Ji et al. (2014) [23] |
CanESM2 | Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Canada | 128 × 64 | Chylek et al. (2011) [24] |
CCSM4 | National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA | 288 × 192 | Subramanian et al. (2012) [25] |
CNRM-CM5 | Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques, Météo-France, France | 256 × 128 | Voldoire et al. (2013) [26] |
CSIRO-MK-3.6.0 | Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, Australia | 192 × 96 | Rotstayn et al. (2013) [27] |
FGOALS-g2 | Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China | 128 × 60 | Zhou et al. (2013) [28] |
FIO-ESM | The First Institution of Oceanography, SOA, China | 128 × 64 | Qiao et al. (2013) [29] |
GFDL-CM3 | NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA | 144 × 90 | Donner et al. (2011) [30] |
GFDL-ESM2G | NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA | 144 × 90 | Dunne et al. (2012) [31] |
GFDL-ESM2M | NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA | 144 × 90 | Dunne et al. (2012) [31] |
GISS-E2-H | NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, USA | 144 × 90 | Shindell et al. (2013) [32] |
GISS-E2-R | NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, USA | 144 × 90 | Schmidt et al. (2010) [33] |
HadGEM2-AO | National Institute of Meteorological Research, Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, South Korea | 192 × 145 | Baek et al. (2013) [34] |
IPSL-CM5A-LR | Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, France | 96 × 96 | Dufresne et al. (2013) [35] |
MIROC5 | Tokyo, and National Institute for Environmental Studies (Japan) | 256 × 128 | Watanabe et al. (2010) [36] |
MIROC-ESM | Tokyo, and National Institute for Environmental Studies (Japan) | 128 × 65 | Watanabe et al. (2011) [37] |
MIROC-ESM-CHEM | Tokyo, and National Institute for Environmental Studies (Japan) | 128 × 65 | Watanabe et al. (2011) [38] |
MPI-ESM-LR | Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany | 192 × 96 | Block and Mauritsen. (2013) [39] |
MRI-CGCM3 | Meteorological Research Institute, Japan | 320 × 160 | Yukimoto et al. (2012) [40] |
NorESM1-M | Norwegian Climate Centre, Norway | 144 × 96 | Bentsen et al. (2013) [41] |
Sub-Region | Wmean | RMSEW | EPmean | RMSEEP | Umean | RMSEU |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Eastern | 680.36 mm | 70.10 mm | 374.00 mm | 71.11 mm | 0.55 | 0.13 |
Western | 603.65 mm | 23.44 mm | 374.26 mm | 49.41 mm | 0.62 | 0.10 |
Southern | 713.35 mm | 43.57 mm | 420.88 mm | 67.25 mm | 0.59 | 0.15 |
Northern | 722.82 mm | 54.94 mm | 361.41 mm | 62.43 mm | 0.50 | 0.13 |
Sub-Region | Wmean | RMSEW | EPmean | RMSEEP | Umean | RMSEU |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Eastern | 708.49 mm | 20.78 mm | 432.18 mm | 36.70 mm | 0.61 | 0.06 |
Western | 704.52 mm | 19.70 mm | 408.61 mm | 23.21 mm | 0.58 | 0.04 |
Southern | 698.74 mm | 20.15 mm | 440.21 mm | 34.38 mm | 0.63 | 0.06 |
Northern | 734.42 mm | 23.63 mm | 418.62 mm | 30.12 mm | 0.57 | 0.05 |
U2 | Rn | Tmean | ea | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Contribution rate | 18% | 36% | 38% | 8% |
Sensitivity coefficient | 0.27 | 0.46 | 0.34 | −0.53 |
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Gao, X.; Wang, A.; Zhao, Y.; Zhao, X.; Sun, M.; Du, J.; Gang, C. Study on Water Suitability of Apple Plantations in the Loess Plateau under Climate Change. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2018, 15, 2504. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15112504
Gao X, Wang A, Zhao Y, Zhao X, Sun M, Du J, Gang C. Study on Water Suitability of Apple Plantations in the Loess Plateau under Climate Change. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2018; 15(11):2504. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15112504
Chicago/Turabian StyleGao, Xuerui, Ai Wang, Yong Zhao, Xining Zhao, Miao Sun, Junkai Du, and Chengcheng Gang. 2018. "Study on Water Suitability of Apple Plantations in the Loess Plateau under Climate Change" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 15, no. 11: 2504. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15112504