Next Article in Journal
From Water Source to Tap of Ceramic Filters—Factors That Influence Water Quality Between Collection and Consumption in Rural Households in Nepal
Previous Article in Journal
Effect of a Job Demand-Control-Social Support Model on Accounting Professionals’ Health Perception
Previous Article in Special Issue
Understanding Weather and Hospital Admissions Patterns to Inform Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in the Healthcare Sector in Uganda
Open AccessArticle

Heat-Related Health Impacts under Scenarios of Climate and Population Change

Office of Research and Development, National Center for Environmental Assessment, US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC 20460, USA
Office of Air and Radiation, Office of Air Quality, Planning and Standards, US Environmental Protection Agency, Durham, NC 27709, USA
Industrial Economics, Inc., Cambridge, MA 02140, USA
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2018, 15(11), 2438;
Received: 29 September 2018 / Revised: 25 October 2018 / Accepted: 27 October 2018 / Published: 1 November 2018
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change and Human Health)
Recent assessments have found that a warming climate, with associated increases in extreme heat events, could profoundly affect human health. This paper describes a new modeling and analysis framework, built around the Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program—Community Edition (BenMAP), for estimating heat-related mortality as a function of changes in key factors that determine the health impacts of extreme heat. This new framework has the flexibility to integrate these factors within health risk assessments, and to sample across the uncertainties in them, to provide a more comprehensive picture of total health risk from climate-driven increases in extreme heat. We illustrate the framework’s potential with an updated set of projected heat-related mortality estimates for the United States. These projections combine downscaled Coupled Modeling Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate model simulations for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)4.5 and RCP8.5, using the new Locating and Selecting Scenarios Online (LASSO) tool to select the most relevant downscaled climate realizations for the study, with new population projections from EPA’s Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project. Results suggest that future changes in climate could cause approximately from 3000 to more than 16,000 heat-related deaths nationally on an annual basis. This work demonstrates that uncertainties associated with both future population and future climate strongly influence projected heat-related mortality. This framework can be used to systematically evaluate the sensitivity of projected future heat-related mortality to the key driving factors and major sources of methodological uncertainty inherent in such calculations, improving the scientific foundations of risk-based assessments of climate change and human health. View Full-Text
Keywords: climate change; heat-related mortality; risk assessment climate change; heat-related mortality; risk assessment
Show Figures

Figure 1

MDPI and ACS Style

Morefield, P.E.; Fann, N.; Grambsch, A.; Raich, W.; Weaver, C.P. Heat-Related Health Impacts under Scenarios of Climate and Population Change. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2018, 15, 2438.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Access Map by Country/Region

Search more from Scilit
Back to TopTop