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Ecological Niche Modeling Identifies Fine-Scale Areas at High Risk of Dengue Fever in the Pearl River Delta, China

College of Geographical Sciences, Fujian Normal University, No. 8 Shangsan Road, Fuzhou 350007, China
State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100101, China
Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Sciences, Ministry of Education, East China Normal University, No. 500 Dongchuan Road, Shanghai 200241, China
State Key Laboratory for Infectious Diseases Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, China CDC, No.5 Changbai Road, Changping District, Beijing 102206, China
Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Paul B. Tchounwou
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2017, 14(6), 619;
Received: 14 May 2017 / Revised: 31 May 2017 / Accepted: 1 June 2017 / Published: 9 June 2017
PDF [4277 KB, uploaded 9 June 2017]


Dengue fever (DF) is one of the most common and rapidly spreading mosquito-borne viral diseases in tropical and subtropical regions. In recent years, this imported disease has posed a serious threat to public health in China, especially in the Pearl River Delta (PRD). Although the severity of DF outbreaks in the PRD is generally associated with known risk factors, fine scale assessments of areas at high risk for DF outbreaks are limited. We built five ecological niche models to identify such areas including a variety of climatic, environmental, and socioeconomic variables, as well as, in some models, extracted principal components. All the models we tested accurately identified the risk of DF, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were greater than 0.8, but the model using all original variables was the most accurate (AUC = 0.906). Socioeconomic variables had a greater impact on this model (total contribution 55.27%) than climatic and environmental variables (total contribution 44.93%). We found the highest risk of DF outbreaks on the border of Guangzhou and Foshan (in the central PRD), and in northern Zhongshan (in the southern PRD). Our fine-scale results may help health agencies to focus epidemic monitoring tightly on the areas at highest risk of DF outbreaks. View Full-Text
Keywords: dengue fever; Maxent; socioeconomic factors; environmental conditions; Guangzhou; Foshan dengue fever; Maxent; socioeconomic factors; environmental conditions; Guangzhou; Foshan

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Li, Q.; Ren, H.; Zheng, L.; Cao, W.; Zhang, A.; Zhuang, D.; Lu, L.; Jiang, H. Ecological Niche Modeling Identifies Fine-Scale Areas at High Risk of Dengue Fever in the Pearl River Delta, China. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2017, 14, 619.

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