Comparison of Malaria Simulations Driven by Meteorological Observations and Reanalysis Products in Senegal
Abstract
:1. Introduction
- -
- Real malaria data are unevenly distributed within countries and across regions;
- -
- The length of observed time series for malaria data is generally short (2001–2010 for Senegal).
- -
- The available data does not only depend on climate, but it also relies on other socioeconomic factors. It is thus important to disentangle the influence of climate on malaria compared to other driving factors. Consequently, we aim to address the following questions:
- -
- Where does malaria happen regularly, occasionally, and never?
- -
- When and how does the malaria transmission season take place?
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. The Liverpool Malaria Model
2.2. Observed Datasets
3. Results
3.1. Climate Context
3.2. Seasonal Cycle of Observed Malaria
3.2.1. Observed Malaria Cases in Senegal
3.2.2. Evaluation of Malaria Simulations
3.3.3. Interannual and Long-Term Context
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Observations | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Datasets | Period | Stations | ||||||||||||
Malaria cases | 2001–2016 | Dakar 14.73° N, 17.5° W | Diourbel 14.4° N, 16.6° W | Fatick 14.21° N, 16.35° W | Kaolack 14.13° N, 16.07° W | Kolda 14.88° N, 14.08° W | Louga 15.37° N, 16.13° W | Matam 15.65° N, 13.25° W | Saint-Louis 16.05° N, 16.45° W | Tambacounda 13.77° N, 13.68° W | Thies 14.8° N, 17° W | Ziguinchor 12.55° N, 16.27° W | ||
Meteorological and CHIRPS rainfall | 1981–2010 | |||||||||||||
Reanalysis Inputs | ||||||||||||||
Datasets | Period | Grid | ||||||||||||
20th Century Reanalysis Project daily averages [56] | 1910–2009 | 2.5° × 2.5° | ||||||||||||
NCEP [57] | 1960–2013 | 2.5° × 2.5° | ||||||||||||
ERA40 [58] | 1958–2001 | 2.5° × 2.5° | ||||||||||||
ERA Interim [59] | 1979–2015 | 1.5° × 1.5° |
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Diouf, I.; Rodriguez-Fonseca, B.; Deme, A.; Caminade, C.; Morse, A.P.; Cisse, M.; Sy, I.; Dia, I.; Ermert, V.; Ndione, J.-A.; et al. Comparison of Malaria Simulations Driven by Meteorological Observations and Reanalysis Products in Senegal. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2017, 14, 1119. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph14101119
Diouf I, Rodriguez-Fonseca B, Deme A, Caminade C, Morse AP, Cisse M, Sy I, Dia I, Ermert V, Ndione J-A, et al. Comparison of Malaria Simulations Driven by Meteorological Observations and Reanalysis Products in Senegal. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2017; 14(10):1119. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph14101119
Chicago/Turabian StyleDiouf, Ibrahima, Belen Rodriguez-Fonseca, Abdoulaye Deme, Cyril Caminade, Andrew P. Morse, Moustapha Cisse, Ibrahima Sy, Ibrahima Dia, Volker Ermert, Jacques-André Ndione, and et al. 2017. "Comparison of Malaria Simulations Driven by Meteorological Observations and Reanalysis Products in Senegal" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 14, no. 10: 1119. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph14101119