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Assessing the Role of Voluntary Self-Isolation in the Control of Pandemic Influenza Using a Household Epidemic Model

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School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, No. 2006, Xiyuan Avenue, West Hi-Tech Zone, Chengdu 611731, China
2
School of Sciences, Southwest Petroleum University, No.8, Xindu Avenue, Xindu District, Chengdu 610500, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Paul B. Tchounwou
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2015, 12(8), 9750-9767; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph120809750
Received: 15 June 2015 / Revised: 6 August 2015 / Accepted: 12 August 2015 / Published: 18 August 2015
In the absence of effective vaccines, antiviral drugs and personal protective measures, such as voluntary self-isolation, have been a part of preparedness plans for the next influenza pandemic. We used a household model to assess the effect of voluntary self-isolation on outbreak control when antiviral drugs are not provided sufficiently early. We found that the early initiation of voluntary self-isolation can overcome the negative effects caused by a delay in antiviral drug distribution when enough symptomatic individuals comply with home confinement at symptom onset. For example, for the baseline household reproduction number RH0 = 2:5, if delays of one or two days occur between clinical symptom development and the start of antiviral prophylaxis, then compliance rates of q ≥ 0:41 and q ≥ 0:6, respectively, are required to achieve the same level of effectiveness as starting antiviral prophylaxis at symptom onset. When the time to beginning voluntary self-isolation after symptom onset increases from zero to two days, this strategy has a limited effect on reducing the transmission of influenza; therefore, this strategy should be implemented as soon as possible. In addition, the effect of voluntary self-isolation decreases substantially with the proportion of asymptomatic infections increasing. View Full-Text
Keywords: mathematical modeling; pandemic influenza; voluntary self-isolation; antiviralprophylaxis; household reproduction number mathematical modeling; pandemic influenza; voluntary self-isolation; antiviralprophylaxis; household reproduction number
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Zhang, Q.; Wang, D. Assessing the Role of Voluntary Self-Isolation in the Control of Pandemic Influenza Using a Household Epidemic Model. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2015, 12, 9750-9767.

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