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Open AccessArticle

A Rainfall- and Temperature-Driven Abundance Model for Aedes albopictus Populations

CIRAD, UPR AGIRs, Montpellier F-34398, France
CIRAD, UMR TETIS, Montpellier F-34398, France
EID Méditerranée, Montpellier F-34184, France
Biodiversity Research Center, Earth and Life Institute, Université Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve B-1348, Belgium
SIRS, Montpellier F-34093, France
INRA, UMR1300 Biologie, épidémiologie et analyse de risques en santé animale, Nantes F-44307, France
ONIRIS, LUNAM Université Nantes Angers Le Mans, Nantes F-44307, France
CIRAD, UMR CMAEE, Montpellier F-34398, France
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Authors who contributed equally to the work.
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2013, 10(5), 1698-1719;
Received: 2 March 2013 / Revised: 9 April 2013 / Accepted: 12 April 2013 / Published: 26 April 2013
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Environmental Determinants of Infectious Disease Transmission)
The mosquito Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera: Culicidae) is an invasive species which has colonized Southern Europe in the last two decades. As it is a competent vector for several arboviruses, its spread is of increasing public health concern, and there is a need for appropriate monitoring tools. In this paper, we have developed a modelling approach to predict mosquito abundance over time, and identify the main determinants of mosquito population dynamics. The model is temperature- and rainfall-driven, takes into account egg diapause during unfavourable periods, and was used to model the population dynamics of Ae. albopictus in the French Riviera since 2008. Entomological collections of egg stage from six locations in Nice conurbation were used for model validation. We performed a sensitivity analysis to identify the key parameters of the mosquito population dynamics. Results showed that the model correctly predicted entomological field data (Pearson r correlation coefficient values range from 0.73 to 0.93). The model’s main control points were related to adult’s mortality rates, the carrying capacity in pupae of the environment, and the beginning of the unfavourable period. The proposed model can be efficiently used as a tool to predict Ae. albopictus population dynamics, and to assess the efficiency of different control strategies. View Full-Text
Keywords: Aedes albopictus; arbovirus; population dynamics; modelling; sensitivity analysis Aedes albopictus; arbovirus; population dynamics; modelling; sensitivity analysis
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Tran, A.; L'Ambert, G.; Lacour, G.; Benoît, R.; Demarchi, M.; Cros, M.; Cailly, P.; Aubry-Kientz, M.; Balenghien, T.; Ezanno, P. A Rainfall- and Temperature-Driven Abundance Model for Aedes albopictus Populations. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2013, 10, 1698-1719.

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