1. Introduction
The extent to which quantum mechanics require a different kind of probabilities from those used in classical statistical mechanics is still an open question. Clarification of the issue is not only of fundamental importance for a better understanding of quantum theory and a demystification of the quantum phenomenon, including issues such as nonlocality, acausality or the absence of realism; it also has important implications for the development and extension of probability theory with a view to its applications in other areas, as complex and diverse as epidemiology, finances, game theory and cognitive science (see, e.g., [
1,
2] and references therein).
The present paper addresses the question for the specific case of the electron spin correlation in an effort to clarify whether the unusualness of the quantum formalism is rooted in its probabilistic framework and, most importantly, whether it implies the need to renounce basic principles that hold for the rest of physics. For this purpose, a detailed analysis is presented for the probabilistic features of the spin correlation contained in the quantum formalism. Their concrete realization in the form of a bona fide probability distribution is proposed. Further, this probability distribution is shown to be amenable to a spatial representation, thus paving the way for a possible physical image of the electron spin.
Two conceptual elements that are shown to play a central role in the analysis are the context and the conditional probabilities. A distinction is made between the notion of context used here to refer to the measurement that is carried out—i.e., 
what is being measured—as opposed to the notion of contextuality frequently used in quantum measurement theory to refer to the result of a measurement being dependent on which other quantity has been measured. By the same token, conditional probabilities as discussed here are probabilities conditioned by the context. Such context-conditioning is connected with the specific partitioning of the probability space, as has been shown in previous work [
3].
Consideration of the context dependence of the probability space partitioning is essential to arrive at a geometric representation of the proposed probability distribution function 
, whose argument 
 varies at random within its integration range. This hidden-variable description is shown to reproduce the probabilistic features [
4] and the quantum result for the one-electron spin correlation. An analagous procedure is shown to be applicable to the bipartite singlet spin case. That both cases can be dealt with following a similar approach is due to the use of conditional probabilities in calculating the respective correlations. Further to endowing the probabilities with a concrete meaning, the results obtained open the possibility of an understanding of the physics that underlies the quantum description. A proposal in this regard is advanced at the end of the paper in light of recent experimental evidence pointing to a finer dynamics of the spinning electron, which requires further investigation.
The paper is structured as follows. 
Section 2 starts with the introduction of an algebraic representation of the spin-projection probabilities for the one-electron spin case, which serves to discuss the notions of contextuality and conditioned probabilities. This representation is shown briefly to reproduce the basic probabilistic properties predicted by the quantum formalism for the electron spin correlation. A central feature of the algebraic approach is the clear separation of the context (what is being measured) from the state of the system (in which it is measured). The quantum description of the spin correlation is shown to imply a context-dependent disaggregation of the probability space into mutually exclusive subspaces. In 
Section 3, a probability distribution function 
 is introduced that reproduces the quantum probabilistic results. This distribution function is shown in 
Section 4 to be amenable to a geometric representation that gives meaning to the random variable 
. In 
Section 5, the same probabilistic approach is shown to be applicable to the bipartite singlet spin state and to correctly reproduce the quantum correlation. The paper concludes with a discussion on the possibility of a physical picture for the electron spin.
  3. Probability Distribution for the Electron Spin
In a recent article [
4], a general probability distribution 
 was proposed for the electron spin projection problem, which serves to reproduce the conditional probabilities and the quantum correlation 
. This probability distribution has the form (the same formula for the distribution, Equation (
29), has been previously obtained by other authors, also within the standard framework of quantum mechanics; see, e.g., [
14])
      
      with
      
The discussion on the physical meaning of 
 is left for the following section; for the time being, 
 represents an independent variable, the value of which may vary from realization to realization, within the interval 
. The partitioning of the probability space 
 into 
, 
 must be such that, according to Equation (11),
      
With 
 given by Equation (
29), the subdivision is (recall that 
)
      
The correlation is given accordingly by
      
Equation (
29) can therefore be considered to represent a bona fide ‘hidden-variable’ distribution.
It is important to keep in mind that the contextuality resides in the partitioning of the sample space. In other words, the same function  applies to different settings ( or ); but the complementary intervals of values of  that give either  or  depend on the setting, and therefore correspond to different realizations of the sample space.
  4. Geometric Model for the Electron Spin
The form of the probability distribution (
29), along with the partitioning of the sample space indicated in Equations (32), is suggestive of a geometric representation that can be explored as a basis for a model for the spinning electron [
4].
In line with the probabilistic description discussed above, we consider an ensemble of realizations. Assume we want to determine the sign of b, given a certain value fora, say . This means that all the elements of the ensemble considered, if actually measured (projected) along , would give the result . We are assuming all relevant vectors to lie on the  plane, for simplicity, taking into account that our probability density depends on one variable only. The direction  may be aligned with the  axis, and  is then contained in the xz plane, forming an angle  with the z axis.
Having defined our ensemble as above, we know for sure that a spin projection along 
 will always give 
. In terms of the conditional probabilities introduced in 
Section 2, 
This means that in all cases corresponding to this ensemble, the spin vector must lie in the upper (or northern) half plane, forming in principle any angle measured on the 
 plane. 
We propose to identify the variable ϕ with that angle; then, 
 lies in the interval 
, with the origin of 
 along the 
 axis and 
 increasing clockwise; see 
Figure 1. (Conversely, for the complementary ensemble defined by 
, one would have 
, and for every realization the spin vector would lie somewhere in the lower half plane. The argument is of course reversible, in the sense that if 
b is given, the angle variable 
 is measured with reference to the direction of 
).
It is important to bear in mind the distinction between the spin direction, defined by 
, and its projections along 
 and 
, which have well-defined signs 
. An actual spin measurement, say along 
, would of course affect the spin by projecting it along that axis, thereby preventing a second measurement (say along 
) from being carried out on the original spin state. In other words, the quantum single-spin correlation (
14) cannot be tested through this measurement procedure.
When 
, the sign of the projection along a direction 
 lying on the 
 plane and forming an angle 
 with the 
 axis is 
 for any angle 
 on that plane such that 
, whilst it is negative for 
. This gives a concrete geometrical meaning to Equations (
31)–(
33) and justifies the partitioning of the probability space into the complementary subspaces 
, 
.
What determines in each individual instance the specific value of the variable —i.e., the orientation of —is not known here;  may vary at random between realizations within the entire interval  What the source of such randomness is and the mechanism that gives rise to the distribution function  is also unknown at this stage. What is important here is that a bona fide probability distribution exists that reproduces the desired conditional probabilities and correlations without additional assumptions.
To make the context dependence more explicit, one may rewrite Equation (
33) as
      
When the direction is changed from 
 to 
, the geometry changes, and the probability space is subdivided accordingly, so that one obtains instead
      
A prime has been added to the integration variable 
 in Equation (
35) to stress that, although the distribution 
function  is the same, its 
realization is independent from the previous one. This means that the individual results obtained in one context 
may not be transferred to the other.
The observation just made has important implications: it ascribes an unavoidable random character to the variable . If the behavior of the system were deterministic, one could label every individual element of the ensemble and assign to it a fixed value of , regardless of which projection (whether along  or ) is being measured.
  6. Final Comment: A Possible Physical Picture of Spin
At this point one may ask whether a physical image of the electron spin can be made compatible with the geometric representation just discussed, under the condition that , with , represents a distribution of random variables associated with the individual realizations of the spin orientation within the ensemble. Such an image would have to be consistent with the physical notion of spin as a dynamical quantity, with an associated intrinsic angular momentum  of fixed magnitude and a magnetic moment roughly given by .
In the presence of a constant magnetic field 
, a classical, frictionless magnetic spinning body is known to regularly precess around the direction of 
 with constant angular frequency as a result of the torque exerted by the field (see, e.g., Ref. [
21]). A similar image has been conventionally associated with the electron, in which case the frequency of precession or Larmor frequency is given by 
. Even for intense magnetic fields, this frequency is many orders of magnitude smaller than the spinning frequency associated with the zitterbeweung predicted by Dirac’s equation, which is estimated to be of the order of Compton’s frequency, 
∼
 s
 (see, e.g., [
22,
23,
24], and further references therein).
This crude image does not seem to leave any space for the additional inclination variable represented by 
 in our geometric model, and even less for the possible random character of this variable. However, such a picture may change in the light of recent experimental evidence. Observations made with ferromagnetic materials in the pico- and femtosecond scales ([
25]; see also [
26]), provide evidence of a spin dynamics far richer than previously assumed due to effects of damping and inertia. This also makes the study of the dynamics markedly more complicated owing to the nonlinearity of the dynamical equations, which are impossible to solve analytically. The analysis of the detailed dynamics of the spinning electron is clearly outside the scope of the present paper. However, of relevance to our discussion is the theoretical possibility of spin nutations, similar to the ones of a spinning top, and their experimentally observed appearance at a characteristic frequency 
 much higher than the usual Larmor precession, yet much smaller than Compton’s frequency. These apparently intrinsic nutations have been established experimentally thanks to the use of an intense, transient magnetic field from a superradiant source of frequency close to 10
 s, to which the nutating spin resonates. The lack of such sources had previously hampered the observation of this nutation dynamic.
Take now the geometric model described in the previous section and consider the dynamics of the electron spinning around its own axis plus the spin angular momentum precessing around the direction of the magnetic field along the z axis, which was defined as the direction . If, in addition, the spin vector is allowed to nutate, and it does so in a highly complex and irregular manner due to the nonlinearity of the dynamics, it may in principle scan the entire range of values of , from 0 to . As long as we cannot observe this nutation, because of its extremely high frequency, the angle  remains as a ’hidden variable’. We are not able to determine the variations of  that occur with such high resolution; we only know that, on average, they must be described by a distribution function such as . Whether the randomness of  is due to the permanent interaction of the spinning electron with the fluctuating vacuum or whether it is a product of the chaotic behavior of spin at this scale is an open question; in any case, there is no need to think that randomness is an inherent element of physics.
With this discussion, we hope to have provided elements in favor of the plausibility of a physical explanation for the probabilistic description of the electron spin given by quantum mechanics, thereby avoiding the need to resort to arguments of an unphysical or spooky nature. To conclude, we may briefly say that, although the electron spin itself is a quantum property whose dynamics is still in need of a more complete theory, the current probability theory seems well suited for an explanation of its probabilistic features.