Search Results (9)

Evapotranspiration (ET) crucially regulates water storage dynamics and is an essential component of the terrestrial water cycle. Understanding ET dynamics is fundamental for sustainable water resource management, particularly in regions facing increasing drought risks under climate change. In regions like southwestern China, where extreme drought events are prevalent due to complex terrain and climate warming, ET becomes a key factor in understanding water availability and drought dynamics. Using the SWAT model, this study investigates ET dynamics and influencing factors in the Jizi Basin, Yunnan Province, a small basin with over 71% forest coverage. The model calibration and validation results demonstrated a high degree of consistency with observed discharge data and ERA5, confirming its reliability. The results show that the annual average ET in the Jizi Basin is 573.96 mm, with significant seasonal variations. ET in summer typically ranges from 70 to 100 mm/month, while in winter, it drops to around 20 mm/month. Spring ET exhibits the highest variability, coinciding with the occurrence of extreme hydrological events such as droughts. The monthly anomalies of ET effectively reproduce the spring and early summer 2019 drought event. Notably, ET variation exhibits significant uncertainty under scenarios of +1 °C temperature and −20% precipitation. Furthermore, although land use changes had relatively small effects on overall ET, they played crucial roles in promoting groundwater recharge through enhanced percolation, especially forest cover. The study highlights that, in addition to climate and land use, soil moisture and groundwater conditions are vital in modulating ET and drought occurrence. The findings offer insights into the hydrological processes of small forested basins in southwestern China and provide important support for sustainable water resource management and effective climate adaptation strategies, particularly in the context of increasing drought vulnerability. Full article

Drought, characterized by frequent occurrences, an extended duration, and a wide range of destruction, has become one of the natural disasters posing a significant threat to both socioeconomic progress and agricultural livelihoods. Large-scale geographical environments often exhibit obvious spatial heterogeneity, leading to significant spatial differences in drought’s development and outcomes. However, traditional drought monitoring models have not taken into account the impact of regional spatial heterogeneity on drought, resulting in evaluation results that do not match the actual situation. In response to the above-mentioned issues, this study proposes the establishment of ecological–geographic zoning to adapt to the spatially stratified heterogeneous characteristics of large-scale drought monitoring. First, based on the principles of ecological and geographical zoning, an appropriate index system was selected to carry out ecological and geographical zoning for Yunnan Province. Second, based on the zoning results and using data from NASA’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B43, the vegetation condition index (VCI), the temperature condition index (TCI), the precipitation condition index (TRCI), and three topographic factors including the digital elevation model (DEM), slope (SLOPE), and aspect (ASPECT) were selected as model parameters. Multiple linear regression models were then used to establish integrated drought monitoring frameworks at different eco–geographical zoning scales. Finally, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was used to evaluate the monitoring effects of the model, and the spatiotemporal variation patterns and characteristics of winter and spring droughts in Yunnan Province from 2008–2019 were further analyzed. The results show that (1) compared to the traditional non-zonal models, the drought monitoring model constructed based on ecological–geographic zoning has a higher correlation and greater accuracy with the SPEI and (2) Yunnan Province experiences periodic and seasonal drought patterns, with spring being the peak period of drought occurrence and moderate drought and light drought being the main types of drought in Yunnan Province. Therefore, we believe that ecological–geographic zoning can better adapt to geographical spatial heterogeneity characteristics, and the zonal drought monitoring model constructed can more effectively identify the actual occurrence of drought in large regions. This research finding can provide reference for the formulation of drought response policies in large-scale regions. Full article

Global climate change, especially extreme drought events, presents a complicated challenge to humanity and Earth’s system in the 21st century. As an extremely important carbon sink region in China, Southwest China has encountered frequent drought disasters in recent decades. It is critical to explore the frequency, duration, severity, and other associated characteristics of drought events as well as their spatial and temporal patterns in the region from a long-term perspective. In this study, we used the latest dataset from the Spanish National Research Council (CSIC) between 1901 and 2018 to extract all drought events by calculating the standardized anomaly of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Theil–Sen median trend analysis, the Mann–Kendall test, and the moving t-test were used to reveal the spatial trend and mutation point of drought severity. The results showed that (1) The standardized anomaly of the 3-month SPEI can accurately identify drought events in Southwest China. In total, 72 drought events occurred during this period, of which the consecutive drought in autumn, winter, and spring from 2009 to 2010 lasted the longest, having the most substantial severity and the most extensive damage range. (2) Drought events mainly started in spring and early summer and ended in autumn and winter. The distribution of drought was the most expansive and the drought severity was the most serious in September. (3) In terms of spatial pattern, Guangxi has the highest frequency of drought events, with some areas experiencing up to 100 events. The average duration of drought events ranged between 3.5 and 5.5 months, with most lasting for 4–5 months. The most severe drought areas are mainly concentrated in southern Sichuan and western Yunnan. Overall, the severity of drought events in the west were generally higher compared to that in the east. (4) Over the past 120 years, most of the region (82.46%) showed an increasing trend in drought severity, with a slope of up to −0.01. About 15.12% of the areas exhibited a significant drying trend (p < 0.05), particularly in southern Sichuan, eastern Guizhou, and northern and southern Yunnan. Such analyses can serve as a scientific foundation for developing drought prevention and mitigation measures as well as exploring how drought events affect the structure and function of terrestrial ecosystems in Southwest China. Full article

Drought is a meteorological phenomenon that negatively impacts agricultural production. In recent years, southwest China has frequently experienced agricultural droughts; these have significantly impacted the economy and the ecological environment. Although several studies have been conducted on agricultural droughts, few have examined the factors driving agricultural droughts from the perspective of water and energy balance. This study aimed to address this gap by utilizing the Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSMI) and the Budyko model to investigate agricultural drought in southwest China. The study identified four areas in Southwest China with a high incidence of agricultural drought from 2000 to 2020. Yunnan and the Sichuan-Chongqing border regions experienced drought in 10% of the months during the study period, while Guangxi and Guizhou had around 8% of months with drought. The droughts in these regions exhibited distinct seasonal characteristics, with Yunnan experiencing significantly higher drought frequency than other periods from January to June, while Guizhou and other areas were prone to severe droughts in summer and autumn. The Budyko model is widely used as the mainstream international framework for studying regional water and energy balance. In this research, the Budyko model was applied to analyze the water and energy balance characteristics in several arid regions of southwest China using drought monitoring data. Results indicate that the water and energy balances in Yunnan and Sichuan-Chongqing are more moisture-constrained, whereas those in Guizhou and Guangxi are relatively stable, suggesting lower susceptibility to extreme droughts. Furthermore, during severe drought periods, evapotranspiration becomes a dominant component of the water cycle, while available water resources such as soil moisture decrease. After comparing the causes of drought and non-drought years, it was found that the average rainfall in southwest China is approximately 30% below normal during drought years, and the temperature is 1–2% higher than normal. These phenomena are most noticeable during the spring and winter months. Additionally, vegetation transpiration is about 10% greater than normal during dry years in Southwest China, and soil evaporation increases by about 5% during the summer and autumn months compared to normal conditions. Full article

Yunnan Province in Southwest China is vulnerable to droughts due to its distinctive topography and local climate. Spring drought in Yunnan (SDY), which accounts for 70% of all drought events, causes the most severe devastation. By examining the variation characteristics of droughts in Yunnan from 1961 to 2020 in terms of the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), this present study shows that droughts in Yunnan have worsened in the past 60 years on different timescales. Especially, the SDY exhibits notable interannual and interdecadal variations, with no significant long-term trend, although the spring average regional temperatures have risen at a rate of 0.33 °C/10a since 1961. Here, in order to quantify the contribution of the precipitation and temperature, the two main meteorological impact factors, to the SDY under the exacerbation of climate warming, the statistical analyses reveal that precipitation plays a more crucial role than temperature in interannual and interdecadal SDY variations. Further, a diagnostic analysis of the moisture budget equation indicates that suppressed vertical moisture advection is the most important physical process affecting the reduced rainfall amount in spring, followed by the restricted horizontal water vapor transport. Meanwhile, the weak Bay of Bengal (BOB) summer monsoon, which is likely regulated by El Niño-like sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in spring, is closely linked with the SDY. This mechanism provides the possibility of SDY predictability on a seasonal scale. Full article

Outbreaks of pine shoot beetles (Tomicus spp.) have caused widespread tree mortality in Southwest China. However, the understanding of the role of climatic drivers in pine shoot beetle outbreaks is limited. This study aimed to characterize the relationships between climate variables and pine shoot beetle outbreaks in the forests of Yunnan pine (Pinus yunnanensis Franch) in Southwest China. The pine shoot beetle-infested total area from 2000 to 2017 was extracted from multi-data Landsat images and obtained from field survey plots. A temporal prediction model was developed by partial least squares regression. The results indicated that multi consecutive year droughts was the strongest predictor, as such a condition greatly reduced the tree resistance to the beetles. The beetle-infested total area increased with spring temperature, associated with a higher success rate of trunk colonization and accelerated larval development. Warmer temperatures and longer solar radiation duration promoted flight activity during the trunk transfer to the shoot period and allowed the completion of sister broods. Multi consecutive year droughts combined with the warmer temperatures and higher solar radiation duration could provide favorable conditions for shoot beetle outbreaks. Generally, identifying the climate variables that drive pine shoot beetle outbreaks could help improve current strategies for outbreak control. Full article

Drought can cause severe agricultural economic losses and hinder social and economic development. To manage drought, the process of drought events needs to be described with the help of an effective drought indicator. As a comprehensive variable, soil moisture is an essential indicator for describing agricultural drought. In this work, the extreme drought events in southwest China were analysed by the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) root zone soil moisture data set. To define the drought quantitatively, a Standardized Soil Moisture Drought Index (SSMI) was calculated using the soil moisture data, then used to get the duration, frequency, and severity of drought events in southwest China. The results showed that the frequency and intensity of drought in southwest China had an apparent upward trend before 2014 and an apparent downward trend since 2014. Moreover, there are apparent differences in the frequency and intensity of drought in various regions of southwest China. Yunnan Province is prone to spring drought events. Guangxi Province and Guizhou Province are prone to spring, autumn and winter droughts, and the intensity of autumn and winter droughts is significantly higher than that of spring droughts. The Sichuan-Chongqing border area is prone to summer drought. We found that the monthly variation of soil moisture in different provinces in southwest China is consistent, but the seasonal variation of drought is different. Meanwhile, the performance of the SSMI was compared to the commonly used drought indices, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). The results showed that the SSMI is more sensitive to drought than both SPEI and PDSI in southwest China. The results also demonstrate that GLDAS soil moisture data can be used to study drought at a small regional scale. Full article

Forests in low-latitude (0° N–30° N) regions are important for greenhouse gas sequestration. They harbor around 25% of vegetation carbon stocks. The productivity of these forests is expected to change as the global climate changes. They may absorb less greenhouse gasses, with negative effects on the global climate. However, little is known about how exactly these forests will respond to climate change. Here, we focus on the largest pine forests in low-latitude forests areas in southwest China. These forests have experienced rapid climate warming over the past 60 years. We collected tree-ring cores from two naturally occurring key afforestation pine tree species: Pinus yunnanensis Franch. and Pinus armandii Franch. in Baoshan and Lijiang of Yunnan. We used basal area increment (BAI) to examine the productivity trends of these two species over long-time scales, and Partial Least Squares regression analysis together with Pearson correlation analysis to identify the critical climate periods for the growth of these two species. We found that: (1) regional pine tree productivity began to decline at the beginning of this century. (2) The radial growth of both species had the strongest positive correlation with the spring Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and precipitation and the strongest negative correlation with spring temperatures. (3) Climate responses differ by species with higher positive correlations between tree-ring width, PDSI, and precipitation in P. armandii than in P. yunnanensis at similar locations. (4) Climate responses differ by location with higher positive correlations between tree-ring width and PDSI in Lijiang than in Baoshan for P. yunnanensis. Our results suggest that spring moisture availability is the main limiting factor for pine tree growth, especially for P. yunnanensis in Lijiang and P. armandii in Baoshan. Future regional warming and warm-induced drought conditions may have negative effects on the growth of pine trees. These results provide reference data for the sustainable management of pine forests in low-latitude regions of southwest China and may be useful in assessing the sustainable carbon sink ability of pine forests in this region under climate change. Full article

Southwest China (SC) has suffered a series of super extreme droughts in the last decade. This study analyzed the temporal and spatial variations of drought in SC from 1961 to 2012. Based on precipitation anomaly index (PAI) that was derived from 1 km gridded precipitation data, three time scales (month, year and decade) for the drought frequency (DF) and drought area were applied to estimate the spatio-temporal structure of droughts. A time-series analysis showed that winter droughts and spring droughts occurred frequently for almost half of the year from November to March. Summer droughts occasionally occurred in severe drought decades: the 1960s, 1980s and 2000s. During the period of observation, the percent of drought area in SC increased from the 1960s (<5%) to the 2000s (>25%). A total of 57% of the area was affected by drought in 2011, when the area experienced its most severe drought both in terms of area and severity. The spatial analysis, which benefitted from the gridded data, detailed that all of SC is at drought risk except for the central Sichuan Basin. The area at high risk for severe and extreme droughts was localized in the mountains of the junction of Sichuan and Yunnan. The temporal and spatial variability can be prerequisites for drought resistance planning and drought risk management of SC. Full article