For the present work, we utilized Leslie White’s anthropological theory of
cultural evolutionism as a theoretical benchmark for econometrically assessing the
macrodynamics of
energy use in
agrarian societies that constituted the human civilization’s second
energy paradigm between 12,000 BC and 1800 AC. As
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For the present work, we utilized Leslie White’s anthropological theory of
cultural evolutionism as a theoretical benchmark for econometrically assessing the
macrodynamics of
energy use in
agrarian societies that constituted the human civilization’s second
energy paradigm between 12,000 BC and 1800 AC. As White’s theory views a society’s ability to harness and control energy from its environment as the
primary function of culture, we may classify the evolution of human civilizations in three phases according to their energy paradigm, defined as the
dominant pattern of energy harvesting from nature. In this context, we may distinguish three energy paradigms so far:
hunting–gathering,
agriculture, and
fossil fuels. Agriculture, as humanity’s energy paradigm for ~14,000 years, essentially comprises a secondary form of solar energy that is biochemically transformed by photosynthetic life (plants and land). Based on this property, we model agrarian societies with similar principles to natural
ecosystems. Just like natural ecosystems, agrarian societies receive abundant solar energy input but also have limited land ability to transform and store them biochemically. As in natural ecosystems, this constraint is depicted by the
carrying capacity emerging biophysically from the
limiting factor. Hence, the historical dynamics of agrarian societies are essentially reduced to their struggle to
maximize energy use by maximizing the area and productivity of fertile land –in the role of a solar energy transformation hub– mitigating their limiting factor. Such an evolutionary forcing introduced
technical upgrades, like the leverage of domesticated livestock power as a
multiplier of the caloric value harvested by
arable and
grazing land combined. According to the above, we tested the econometric performance of four selected dynamic maps used extensively in ecology to reproduce humanity’s energy harvesting macrodynamics between 10,000 BC and 1800 AC: (a) the
logistic map, (b) the
logistic growth map, (c) a lower limiting case of the Hassel map that yields the
Ricker map, and (d) a higher limiting case of the Hassel map that yields the
Beverton–Holt map. Following our results, we discuss thoroughly our framework’s major elaborations on social hierarchy and competition as mechanisms for allocating available energy in society, as well as the related future research and econometric modeling challenges.
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